Prime Sports NASCAR – weekly picks from Michigan and who we have for Richmond

Greg was the big winner with hitting $425 back on Kevin Harvick’s win on Sunday in Michigan. He nailed Harvick and moves back in the hunt for the season win on bets. Eric and CJ each gained $150 and $125 via Harvick’s triumph too.

Now we head to Richmond for Sunday’s return trip.

More: Listen or Watch to Prime Sports NASCAR Michigan Recap/Richmond Preview Show Here

The Toyota’s (stats above) are the heavy favorites with them sweeping the action at Richmond in 2018 and 2019 to go along with 9 trips to victory lane in the last 13 starts on the .75-mile D-Shaped Virginia oval including this past spring. JGR went 1-2-3-4 across the finish line in Sept. 2019 as their top feat. but had the fastest race cars here in April too.

Hendrick Motorsports (stats above) and Team Penske (stats above) haven’t been at their best on short tracks this season nor at Richmond as a whole lately either. That’s why this could be a Toyota/Joe Gibbs Racing show on Sunday.

The thing is, this may be Martin Truex Jr’s last shot at a victory during the regular season so they really need him to triumph. Kevin Harvick (stats above) also needs a win and this is a great track for him to do so and he’s getting really good odds.

Federated Auto Parts 400 key stat

  • Starting position doesn’t matter here as much as other places. Drivers say in qualifying, you attack this track for 2 laps but in the race, you have to baby the tires and take it easy. Push too hard in race mode, you fall backwards due to tire wear. It’s why 2 of the last 3 winners started outside of the top 10 including Denny Hamlin from 13th this past spring and Alex Bowman from 24th the spring prior. That’s why the season may show 12 winners coming from a top 8 starting spot in the last 13 races but Richmond may be an outlier here this weekend.

Live In Race Betting Trends To Watch

  • Strategy is key here and Denny Hamlin scored no stage points in his win this past spring. 3 times since 2018 has someone swept both stages here but didn’t win including just last year.
  • 3 of the last 5 races on the season the eventual winner finished in the top 6 of the opening stage. 5 of the 10 opening stages saw the eventual race winner come home in the top three at that.
  • 16 of the last 20 races on the season the eventual race winner scored stage points in the 2nd stage including 6 of the last 8. However, the Stage 2 winner has just 2 wins all season.
  • 6 of the last 9 race winners on the season didn’t lead a single lap in the first 2 stages.
  • 2 of the last 9 races have seen the driver lead the most laps fail to win in the end.

At Richmond, 9 of the last 11 drivers to lead the most laps failed to win. 2 of the last 3 winners here at that led 10 or fewer laps in their victory.

Race Odds

6-1…D Hamlin and M Truex Jr.

7-1…Kyle B

8-1…C Bell

9-1…C Elliott

10-1…K Larson

12-1…R Blaney and R Chastain

15-1…D Wallace

20-1…W Byron, K Harvick, J Logano and T Reddick

25-1…Kurt B and D Suarez

30-1…A Bowman

50-1…A Almirola, C Briscoe, A Cindric, A Dillon and E Jones

100-1…C Buescher and B Keselowski

250-1…H Burton, C Custer, J Haley, M McDowell and R Stenhouse Jr.

NOTE: Each analyst has a weekly wagering limit of $100.

NOTE: The weekly wagering limits will increase $100 for each playoff round ending with a $500 wagering limit for the Championship Four race.

FEDERATED AUTO PARTS 400 PICKS: RACE 24

Greg DePalma

M Truex Jr…6-1…$15 ($90) 

C Bell…8-1…$20 ($160) 

R Blaney…12-1…$20 ($240) 

B Wallace…15-1…$10 ($150)

K Harvick…20-1…$10 ($200)

W Byron…20-1…$5 ($100)

J Logano…20-1…$10 ($200) 

A Bowman…30-1…$5 ($150) 

A Dillon…50-1…$5 ($250) 

RECORD: 10 for 23

TOTAL: -311

Eric Smith

D Hamlin…6-1…$27 ($162) 

M Truex Jr…6-1…$26 ($156) 

C Bell…8-1…$15 ($120) 

R Chastain…12-1…$10 ($120) 

B Wallace…15-1…$7 ($105)

T Reddick…20-1…$6 ($120)

D Suarez…25-1…$5 ($125)

A Dillon…50-1…$4 ($200) 

RECORD: 13 for 23

TOTAL: -416

CJ Radune

D Hamlin…6-1…$18 ($108) 

M Truex Jr…6-1…$18 ($108) 

Kyle B…7-1…$16 ($112) 

C Elliott…9-1…$13 ($117) 

K Larson…10-1…$11 ($110) 

R Blaney…12-1…$9 ($108) 

W Byron…20-1…$6 ($120)

A Bowman…30-1…$4 ($120) 

E Jones…50-1…$3 ($150)

B Keselowski…100-1…$2 ($200)

RECORD: 14 for 23

TOTAL: -421

ARCHIVES

FIREKEEPERS CASINO 400 PICKS: RACE 23

FIREKEEPERS CASINO 400 WINNER: Kevin Harvick

CJ Radune

C Elliott…6-1…$19 ($114) …11th

D Hamlin…7-1…$17 ($119) …3rd  

K Larson…7-1…$17 ($119) …7th 

R Chastain…9-1…$14 ($126) …24th 

R Blaney…12-1…$10 ($120) …5th  

M Truex Jr…15-1…$8 ($120) …6th  

J Logano…20-1…$6 ($120) …4th 

K Harvick…25-1…$5 ($125) …1st

C Buescher…100-1…$2 ($200) …16th

B Keselowski…100-1…$2 ($200) …15th

RECORD: 1 for 1

TOTAL: +30

Eric Smith

C Elliott…6-1…$19 ($114) …11th

D Hamlin…7-1…$19 ($133) …3rd    

K Larson…7-1…$20 ($144) …7th  

R Blaney…12-1…$10 ($120) …5th    

J Logano…20-1…$5 ($100) …4th  

K Harvick…25-1…$6 ($150) …1st

D Suarez…25-1…$4 ($100) …25th

B Wallace…25-1…$4 ($100) …2nd 

A Cindric…50-1…$5 ($250) …37th 

A Almirola…100-1…$2 ($200) …34th

C Buescher…100-1…$2 ($200) …16th

M McDowell…100-1…$2 ($200) …28th 

H Burton…250-1…$1 ($250) …32nd

J Haley…500-1…$1 ($500) …17th

RECORD: 1 for 1

TOTAL: +56

Greg DePalma

R Blaney…12-1…$23 ($276) …5th 

T Reddick…12-1…$8 ($96) …29th

M Truex Jr…15-1…$10 ($150) …6th     

J Logano…20-1…$10 ($200) …4th     

K Harvick…25-1…$17 ($425) …1st

E Jones…25-1…$8 ($200) …8th

D Suarez…25-1…$8 ($200) …25th  

B Wallace…25-1…$6 ($150) …2nd   

C Briscoe…50-1…$3 ($150) …20th  

A Dillon…50-1…$7 ($350) …13th  

RECORD: 1 for 1TOTAL: +342

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