Prime Sports NASCAR – weekly picks update leaving Indy and heading to Michigan

Greg won his money back. That’s all it took because Eric went with 4 drivers thinking Sunday’s Verizon 200 would be theirs to lose and CJ avoided Tyler Reddick. Instead, it was Reddick scoring the Indy win.

Now we head to Michigan with 4 races left in the regular season.

The Ford’s have won each of the last 7 Cup races at Michigan but you’re getting great odds for them this week. Why?

Well they’re struggling on the year now. A Ford driver hasn’t won since the first week of June as that and a win on Mothers Day’s are their only victories in the last 18 races.

Joey Logano isn’t a wise play this week. Neither are the RFK Racing drivers with the organization not having won a race since 2017 and that was on a superspeedway at that. Stewart-Haas Racing has 2 wins in the last 65 starts overall.

Prime Sports NASCAR preview show here

Does that open the door for Chevy or Toyota?

Hendrick Motorsports hasn’t won a race at Michigan since 2014. Toyota hasn’t won at Michigan since 2015 as that’s their lone MIS win in their last 19 tries.

However, I think this may be the year Ford’s reign ends.
Blaney and Austin Cindric are a great sleeper plays. So is Kevin Harvick. They each need wins and have been really good here over the years. That may be in for the blue oval camp.
HMS has shown speed this year and Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott look primed for victory here. They may be the only Chevy drivers though. This race may be stolen from the outside manufacturer in Toyota.

This is Ford and Chevy’s backyard but Toyota has the better drivers at Michigan now. Can they capitalize?
FireKeepers Casino 400 key stat
· 5 of the last 6 Michigan winners have come from the top three starting spots. Furthermore, 11 of the last 12 have come from the top 12.
· Each of the last 12 winners on the season have come from a top 8 starting spot including 10 of which from the top 5 (6 straight).
Live In Race Betting Trends To Watch
• Since the stage era began in 2017, 8 of the 9 Michigan races were won by a driver getting stage points in the first stage. 5 of the 9 opening stages saw the eventual race winner come home in the top three at that. 3 of the last 4 races the eventual winner finished in the top 6 of the opening stage.
• 16 of the last 19 races on the season the eventual race winner scored stage points in the 2nd stage including 6 of the last 7. However, the Stage 2 winner has just 2 wins all season.
• 6 of the last 8 race winners on the season didn’t lead a single lap in the first 2 stages.
• 2 of the last 8 races have seen the driver lead the most laps fail to win in the end.

Race Odds

6-1…Kyle B and C Elliott

7-1…D Hamlin and K Larson 

9-1…R Chastain

12-1…R Blaney, W Byron and T Reddick

15-1…C Bell and M Truex Jr.

20-1…J Logano

25-1…A Bowman, E Jones, K Harvick, Suarez and Wallace

40-1…Kurt B 

50-1…C Briscoe, A Cindric and A Dillon

100-1…A Almirola, C Buescher, B Keselowski, M McDowell and R Stenhouse Jr.

250-1…H Burton and C Custer

500-1…T Dillon, N Gragson, J Haley, and C LaJoie 

 

NOTE: Each analyst has a weekly wagering limit of $100.

NOTE: The weekly wagering limits will increase $100 for each playoff round ending with a $500 wagering limit for the Championship Four race. 

 

 

FIREKEEPERS CASINO 400 PICKS: RACE 23

 

CJ Radune

C Elliott…6-1…$19 ($114)  

D Hamlin…7-1…$17 ($119)  

K Larson…7-1…$17 ($119)  

R Chastain…9-1…$14 ($126)  

R Blaney…12-1…$10 ($120)  

M Truex Jr…15-1…$8 ($120)  

J Logano…20-1…$6 ($120)  

K Harvick…25-1…$5 ($125) 

C Buescher…100-1…$2 ($200) 

B Keselowski…100-1…$2 ($200) 

 

RECORD: 13 for 22

TOTAL: -451

Eric Smith

C Elliott…6-1…$19 ($114)  

D Hamlin…7-1…$19 ($133)  

K Larson…7-1…$20 ($144)  

R Blaney…12-1…$10 ($120)  

J Logano…20-1…$5 ($100)  

K Harvick…25-1…$6 ($150) 

D Suarez…25-1…$4 ($100) 

B Wallace…25-1…$4 ($100) 

A Cindric…50-1…$5 ($250)  

A Almirola…100-1…$2 ($200) 

C Buescher…100-1…$2 ($200) 

M McDowell…100-1…$2 ($200) 

H Burton…250-1…$1 ($250) 

J Haley…500-1…$1 ($500) 

 

RECORD: 12 for 22

TOTAL: -472

Greg DePalma

R Blaney…12-1…$23 ($276)  

T Reddick…12-1…$8 ($96)  

M Truex Jr…15-1…$10 ($150)  

J Logano…20-1…$10 ($200)  

K Harvick…25-1…$17 ($425) 

E Jones…25-1…$8 ($200) 

D Suarez…25-1…$8 ($200) 

B Wallace…25-1…$6 ($150) 

C Briscoe…50-1…$3 ($150)  

A Dillon…50-1…$7 ($350)  

 

RECORD: 9 for 22

TOTAL: -653

 

ARCHIVES

 

VERIZON 200 AT THE BRICKYARD PICKS: RACE 22

VERIZON 200 AT THE BRICKYARD WINNER: Tyler Reddick

 

CJ Radune

C Elliott…4-1…$29 ($116) …16th

K Larson…6-1…$19 ($114) …35th  

R Chastain…7-1…$17 ($119) …27th  

A Cindric…12-1…$10 ($120) …2nd  

M Truex Jr…16-1…$7 ($112) …21st

AJ Allmendinger…20-1…$6 ($120) …7th  

D Hamlin…20-1…$6 ($120) …14th

M McDowell…30-1…$4 ($120) …8th  

E Jones…100-1…$2 ($200) …15th

 

RECORD: 0 for 1

TOTAL: -100

Eric Smith

C Elliott…4-1…$60 ($240) …16th  

K Larson…6-1…$30 ($180) …35th    

AJ Allmendinger…20-1…$6 ($120) …7th    

M McDowell…30-1…$4 ($120) …8th   

 

RECORD: 0 for 1

TOTAL: -100

Greg DePalma

T Reddick…10-1…$10 ($100) …1st   

A Cindric…12-1…$8 ($96) …2nd   

R Blaney…16-1…$20 ($320) …26th  

C Briscoe…16-1…$10 ($160) …23rd  

M Truex Jr…16-1…$20 ($320) …21st 

D Hamlin…20-1…$7 ($140) …14th

K Harvick…25-1…$10 ($250) …33rd  

A Bowman…30-1…$4 ($120) …32nd

C Buescher…30-1…$3 ($90) …10th

M McDowell…30-1…$3 ($90) …8th  

C Custer…100-1…$3 ($300) …9th  

B Wallace…500-1…$2 ($1000) …5th  

 

RECORD: 1 for 1

TOTAL: +10

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