Prime Sports NASCAR – weekly picks update from Loudon and heading to Pocono

Eric keeps the momentum going while CJ picked up a win too via Christopher Bell’s triumph in Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series race at Loudon. Now, can they keep it up for Sunday’s race at the Pocono Raceway on Sunday?

Chase Elliott has 4 straight top 2 finishes on the season but has no finishes better than 4th at Pocono and 4 of his last 5 have seen him finish 12th or worse at that. His struggling teammates of Alex Bowman (1 top 5 last 14, 3 of last 4 32nd or worse) and William Byron (1 top 10 last 12) may need Pocono to turn things around.

Bowman had a win and seventh place finish last year to go along with a ninth in Race 2 of 2020 gives him three straight top 10’s on the track. Byron has 5 top 10’s in his last 7 at Pocono including 3 of which being in the top 6.

Kyle Larson was ninth but should have won the first race last year and runner-up in the second. He was fifth in 2020 and runner-up in June of 2019 too.

They have have to beat Joe Gibbs Racing though.

Joe Gibbs Racing and Toyota in general has won 7 of the last 9 at Pocono. Kyle Busch hasn’t finished better than 12th in any of his last 5 races including 4 of the 5 being 20th or worse. However, he has 9 top 10 finishes in his last 10 at Pocono including 4 of his last 9 being wins. He had a top 2 in both races run last year.

Martin Truex Jr. needs a win and has 5 top 6’s in his last 10 tries. Denny Hamlin has had a lot of success at Pocono lately as it’s honestly been his playground. Hamlin, has six wins there including two of which in the last five. He was also runner-up in another for six top sixes in his last seven Pocono tries in general. Christopher Bell enters off of a win last Sunday.

Between JGR, Hendrick and by throwing in Stewart-Haas Racing and you get 17 of the last 19 Pocono winners belonging to JGR or 1 of their affiliate teams, Hendrick or SHR.

1 of the 2 that they didn’t win was a fluke rain shortened race in 2016.

SHR doesn’t look like they have the pace this year to keep up but are worth plays due to their favorable odds. Pocono is a track that lends to varying strategies so they’re worth a risk. That’s why JGR and HMS drivers are the ones to bet on.

M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 key stat
Don’t get too hung up on qualifying this weekend. Only 1 of the last 7 Pocono races have seen the winner come from the top 4 Rows.

Live In Race Betting Trends To Watch
• 5 of the last 6 Stage 1’s at Pocono, the eventual race winner didn’t even score stage points. Keep that in mind as you live bet. On the season, just once in the last 8 races has the eventual winner even finished in the top 5 in stage 1. In saying that, Pocono will race a lot like a road course in terms of strategy and none of the 3 road course races run this year saw the winner finish in the points at the end of Stage 1. May be best to look at drivers who finished 11th on back in Stage 1.
• 6 of the last 7 Stage 2’s at Pocono, the eventual race winner did score stage points but finished 5th or worse each time. For the year, 10 of the last 12 2nd stages saw the eventual winner get stage points. Like the point for Stage 1, this will look strategy wise like a road course race and 2 of the 3 road races saw the winner finish 8th, 4th and 10th respectively. For this stage though, the winner likely comes from 6th-10th as a result.
• Also, the eventual race winner failed to lead the most laps in 6 of the last 9 races at Pocono including 3 straight. For the year, the eventual winner didn’t lead a single lap until the final stage in 4 of the last 6 races.

RACE FUTURES: M&Ms FAN APPRECIATION 400

 

Race Odds

5-1…Kyle B

7-1…C Elliott and D Hamlin

9-1…K Larson

10-1…R Blaney, W Byron and K Harvick

12-1…J Logano and M Truex Jr.

15-1…C Bell and R Chastain

20-1…A Bowman

25-1…A Almirola and T Reddick

30-1…Kurt B and D Suarez

40-1…C Briscoe, B Keselowski and D Wallace Jr.

50-1…A Cindric

100-1…A Dillon and E Jones

250-1…AJ Allmendinger, C Buescher, C Custer, M McDowell and R Stenhouse Jr 

500-1…H Burton, J Haley and C LaJoie

 

M&Ms FAN APPRECIATION 400 PICKS: RACE 21

 

CJ Radune

Kyle B…5-1…$23 ($115)  

D Hamlin…7-1…$16 ($112)  

R Blaney…10-1…$12 ($120)  

W Byron…10-1…$12 ($120) 

K Harvick…10-1…$12 ($120) 

M Truex Jr…12-1…$10 ($120)  

R Chastain…15-1…$8 ($120)  

B Keselowski…40-1…$3 ($120) 

E Jones…100-1…$2 ($200)  

C Buescher…250-1…$2 ($500) 

 

RECORD: 13 for 20

TOTAL: -251

Eric Smith

Kyle B…5-1…$25 ($125)  

C Elliott…7-1…$17 ($119)  

D Hamlin…7-1…$17 ($119)  

K Larson…9-1…$12 ($108)  

R Blaney…10-1…$11 ($110)  

K Harvick…10-1…$11 ($110) 

A Almirola…25-1…$4 ($100) 

Kurt B…30-1…$3 ($90)  

 

RECORD: 11 for 20

TOTAL: -408

Greg DePalma

R Blaney…10-1…$20 ($200)  

K Harvick…10-1…$20 ($200) 

M Truex Jr…12-1…$35 ($420)  

Kurt B…30-1…$10 ($300)  

B Keselowski…40-1…$5 ($200) 

B Wallace…40-1…$5 ($200) 

E Jones…100-1…$5 ($500)

 

RECORD: 8 for 20

TOTAL: -563

 

ARCHIVES

 

AMBETTER 301 PICKS: RACE 20

AMBETTER 301 WINNER: Christopher Bell

 

CJ Radune

C Elliott…7-1…$16 ($112) …2nd

R Blaney…9-1…$13 ($117) …18th

D Hamlin…9-1…$13 ($117) …6th   

K Larson…9-1…$13 ($117) …14th

M Truex Jr…10-1…$11 ($110) …4th  

W Byron…15-1…$8 ($120) …11th

K Harvick…15-1…$8 ($120) …5th  

C Bell…18-1…$7 ($126) …1st  

A Almirola…30-1…$4 ($120) …31st

Kurt B…30-1…$4 ($120) …10th   

B Keselowski…50-1…$3 ($150) …7th

 

RECORD: 1 for 1

TOTAL: +33

Eric Smith

R Blaney…9-1…$12 ($108) …18th   

Kyle B…9-1…$11 ($99) …12th   

D Hamlin…9-1…$12 ($108) …6th     

J Logano…10-1…$11 ($110) …24th

M Truex Jr…10-1…$11 ($110) …4th    

R Chastain…12-1…$10 ($120) …8th  

K Harvick…15-1…$7 ($105) …5th  

C Bell…18-1…$6 ($108) …1st

C Briscoe…20-1…$6 ($120) …15th  

A Almirola…30-1…$4 ($120) …31st

Kurt B…30-1…$4 ($120) …10th     

A Cindric…30-1…$4 ($120) …13th

C Custer…250-1…$2 ($500) …27th

 

RECORD: 1 for 1

TOTAL: +14

Greg DePalma

C Elliott…7-1…$20 ($140) …2nd  

R Blaney…9-1…$25 ($225) …18th     

M Truex Jr…10-1…$15 ($150) …4th     

R Chastain…12-1…$10 ($120) …8th   

K Harvick…15-1…$18 ($270) …5th

A Almirola…30-1…$5 ($150) …31st

A Bowman…30-1…$5 ($150) …35th  

C Custer…250-1…$2 ($500) …27th

 

RECORD: 0 for 1

TOTAL: -100

One comment

  1. […] CJ and Eric thought that they had picked up the win for the 2nd straight week while Greg dropped another $100 via Denny Hamlin’s triumph at the Pocono Raceway on Sunday. However, with Hamlin and Kyle Busch’s DQ, only Eric got the victory with Chase Elliott being declared the winner. Eric now rides a hot streak of wins coming to his home track at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway for Sunday’s Verizon 200 (2:30 p.m. ET, NBC, IMS Radio Network). […]

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