Prime Sports NASCAR – weekly picks update leaving Pocono and heading to Indy

CJ and Eric thought that they had picked up the win for the 2nd straight week while Greg dropped another $100 via Denny Hamlin’s triumph at the Pocono Raceway on Sunday. However, with Hamlin and Kyle Busch’s DQ, only Eric got the victory with Chase Elliott being declared the winner. Eric now rides a hot streak of wins coming to his home track at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway for Sunday’s Verizon 200 (2:30 p.m. ET, NBC, IMS Radio Network).

This is the 4th road course race of the 2022 season. The previous 3 were all won by 1st time winners in Cup competition. Ross Chastain scored his 1st ever Cup win at COTA back in March. His teammate Daniel Suarez did the same last month in Sonoma. Earlier this month, Tyler Reddick picked up his 1st Cup victory in Road America.

Does Indy follow suit?

AJ Allmendinger won his 2nd career Cup race here last August and brought Kaulig Racing their 1st ever win in the process. 5 of the last 10 winners in the Cup Series on road courses were won by a driver earning their 1st or 2nd career win on them.

Check Out Prime Sports NASCAR’s Verizon 200 Preview Show Here

Winless drivers entered for this weekend’s race? Ty Dillon (0-for-187), Corey LaJoie (0-for-185), Harrison Burton (0-for-22) and Todd Gilliland (0-for-21).

Dillon has finished 20th, 23rd and 20th in the 3 road course events in 2022, LaJoie was 36th, 34th and 34th himself while the 2 rookies fared: 17-28-22 (Burton) and 16-24-25 (Gilliland).

That’s why I feel that streak ends Sunday.

Another factor to this is, Chevy has won each of the 3 road course races this season and the final 6 of 2021 for 9 straight wins on these tracks. If you go back to the 2019 race at Watkins Glen, Chevy has won 13 of the last 14 road races in general.

That’s why the Chevy drivers are tops in the odds and despite being 0-for-3 in 2022 on road courses, as to why Hendrick Motorsports drivers are favored too.

Chase Elliott (stats above) and Kyle Larson (stats above) are the heavy hitters.
HMS had won 9 of the last 13 overall road course races in general entering this season Counting Joe Gibbs Racing, them and HMS had combined to win 11 of the last 14 road course races in that span. Throw in Furniture Row Racing (Martin Truex Jr.) who was aligned with JGR, these three teams have won 14 of the last 18 road course races coming into 2022.
They’re each 0-for-3 this season with Trackhouse Racing winning two and Richard Childress Racing the other.

JGR (stats above) have struggled mightily on road races this year. So has SHR (stats above) which is why I feel this one will once again be largely dominated by Chevy powered teams.
Verizon 200 key stat
• 2nd race on the IMS road course and with a new car, no key stats to base anything off of for this weekend.

Live In Race Betting Trends To Watch
• None of the 3 road course races run this year saw the winner finish in the points at the end of Stage 1. May be best to look at drivers who finished 11th on back in Stage 1.
• 2 of the 3 road races saw the winner finish outside of the top 5 (8th, 4th and 10th). For this stage though, the winner likely comes from 6th-10th as a result. Last year, the main drivers punted on stage points each time.
6 of the last 7 race winners on the season didn’t lead a single lap in the first 2 stages.

Race Odds

4-1…C Elliott

6-1…K Larson

7-1…R Chastain

10-1…T Reddick

12-1…A Cindric and D Suarez

16-1…R Blaney, C Briscoe, Kyle B and M Truex Jr.

20-1…AJ Allmendinger, C Bell, W Byron and Hamlin

25-1…K Harvick

30-1…A Bowman, C Buescher and M McDowell

40-1…J Logano

50-1…Kurt B

100-1…A Almirola, C Custer, A Dillon, J Haley, E Jones and B Keselowski

500-1…R Stenhouse Jr. and D Wallace

1000-1…H Burton and C LaJoie

VERIZON 200 AT THE BRICKYARD PICKS: RACE 22

CJ Radune

C Elliott…4-1…$29 ($116) 

K Larson…6-1…$19 ($114) 

R Chastain…7-1…$17 ($119) 

A Cindric…12-1…$10 ($120) 

M Truex Jr…16-1…$7 ($112) 

AJ Allmendinger…20-1…$6 ($120) 

D Hamlin…20-1…$6 ($120) 

M McDowell…30-1…$4 ($120)

E Jones…100-1…$2 ($200) 

RECORD: 13 for 21

TOTAL: -351

Eric Smith

C Elliott…4-1…$60 ($240) 

K Larson…6-1…$30 ($180) 

AJ Allmendinger…20-1…$6 ($120) 

M McDowell…30-1…$4 ($120)

RECORD: 12 for 21

TOTAL: -372

Greg DePalma

T Reddick…10-1…$10 ($100) 

A Cindric…12-1…$8 ($96) 

R Blaney…16-1…$20 ($320) 

C Briscoe…16-1…$10 ($160) 

M Truex Jr…16-1…$20 ($320) 

D Hamlin…20-1…$7 ($140) 

K Harvick…25-1…$10 ($250)

A Bowman…30-1…$4 ($120)

C Buescher…30-1…$3 ($90)

M McDowell…30-1…$3 ($90)

C Custer…100-1…$3 ($300) 

B Wallace…500-1…$2 ($1000)

RECORD: 8 for 21

TOTAL: -663

ARCHIVES

M&Ms FAN APPRECIATION 400 PICKS: RACE 21

M&Ms FAN APPRECIATION 400 WINNER: Chase Elliott

CJ Radune

Kyle B…5-1…$23 ($115) …DQ

D Hamlin…7-1…$16 ($112) …DQ

R Blaney…10-1…$12 ($120) …33rd  

W Byron…10-1…$12 ($120) …12th

K Harvick…10-1…$12 ($120) …27th

M Truex Jr…12-1…$10 ($120) …7th   

R Chastain…15-1…$8 ($120) …32nd  

B Keselowski…40-1…$3 ($120) …14th

E Jones…100-1…$2 ($200) …9th  

C Buescher…250-1…$2 ($500) …29th  

RECORD: 0 for 1

TOTAL: -100

Eric Smith

Kyle B…5-1…$25 ($125) …DQ 

C Elliott…7-1…$17 ($119) …1st  

D Hamlin…7-1…$17 ($119) …DQ

K Larson…9-1…$12 ($108) …5th

R Blaney…10-1…$11 ($110) …33rd   

K Harvick…10-1…$11 ($110) …27th

A Almirola…25-1…$4 ($100) …13th

Kurt B…30-1…$3 ($90) …DNR

RECORD: 1 for 1

TOTAL: +36

Greg DePalma

R Blaney…10-1…$20 ($200) …33rd     

K Harvick…10-1…$20 ($200) …27th

M Truex Jr…12-1…$35 ($420) …7th  

Kurt B…30-1…$10 ($300) …DNR

B Keselowski…40-1…$5 ($200) …14th

B Wallace…40-1…$5 ($200) …8th

E Jones…100-1…$5 ($500) …9th  

RECORD: 0 for 1

TOTAL: -100

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s