Prime Sports NASCAR – weekly picks update leaving Atlanta and who we chose for Loudon

Eric cashed in $50 on Chase Elliott while CJ won $10 for the Hendrick Motorsport’s driver taking the checkered flag first in last Sunday’s Quaker State 400 at the Atlanta Motor Speedway. It was Eric’s 5th win in the last 6 weeks while CJ got back on the board again too. Greg’s streak ends as he chose the other 10-1 drivers and faded on Elliott. That puts him -$463 now on the season.

Up next is Loudon for Sunday’s Ambetter 301 (3 p.m. ET, USA, PRN).

Joe Gibbs Racing and Stewart-Haas Racing are each backing their ways into Sunday’s race in New Hampshire but in saying that, this could be the race that the doctor ordered for each too.

Loudon has been a great place for Stewart-Haas Racing in recent years with them winning their 1st race of the season in 2 of the last 3 years here. They could badly use a win with only Chase Briscoe (Phoenix) having reached victory lane for them in 2022 and the other 3 drivers in their camp sitting below the playoff cutline.


JGR is also a bit behind again. They have 2 drivers to have won a race this season but the other 2 are also squarely on the playoff bubble. The first two drivers out and behind them in points? The drivers to win 2 of the last 3 Loudon races (Kevin Harvick, Aric Almirola).
Almirola holds 18th place in points and beat 16th place in points Christopher Bell last year. Truex Jr. is 15th and badly needing a win himself. 14th in the playoff standings is Ryan Blaney who also is searching for his first victory of the year himself.
Translation?

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The favorites entering this race don’t typically win. 9 of the last 11 races saw the driver that led the most laps fail to win in the end. 6 of the last 9 drivers to lead the most laps failed to even score a top 5 even.

So, the door is wide open this week which helps boost our profits.

Plus, while Chase Elliott is on a hot streak lately, this isn’t necessarily a good spot for he or his HMS teammates. The last Hendrick win at Loudon came back in 2012. Last year, they finished 7-9-18-21. Kyle Larson does have 4 top 10’s in his last 6 tries including two runner-up’s but on short tracks in 2022 he was 34th, 5th, 19th, 6th and 12th respectively. Elliott has 1 top five in 8 starts and 1 short track top 5 all season on a track that’s not comparable at that. William Byron has no top 10’s in four tries while Alex Bowman has 1 top 10 (9th last year) in the same four starts as Byron.

Ambetter 301 key stats
• Starting position hasn’t matter much at New Hampshire like it has elsewhere. 6 of the last 9 New Hampshire winners have come from a starting spot outside of the top 12 (Aric Almiorla was 22nd last year).
Live In Race Betting Trends To Watch
· We’ve had 6 races run in the stage era, the eventual winner scored stage points in both stages in all 5 of the 6 races. Aric Almirola didn’t score stage points in Stage 1 last July.
· Just 2 of the 6 races saw the eventual winner even finish in the top five in stage 1.
· 5 of the 6 races saw the eventual winner finish in the top 5 in the 2nd stage including two wins and a second place effort.
· 12 of the last 14 Loudon races were won by a Cup champion. Denny Hamlin and Aric Almiorla are the lone exception.

Race Odds

7-1…C Elliott

9-1…R Blaney, Kyle B, D Hamlin and K Larson

10-1…J Logano and M Truex Jr.

12-1…R Chastain

15-1…W Byron, K Harvick and T Reddick

18-1…C Bell

20-1…C Briscoe and D Suarez

30-1…A Almirola, A Bowman, Kurt B and A Cindric

50-1…A Dillon, B Keselowski and D Wallace Jr.

100-1…AJ Allmendinger, C Buescher, E Jones, M McDowell and R Stenhouse Jr

250-1…C Custer, J Haley and C LaJoie

500-1…H Burton and T Dillon

AMBETTER 301 PICKS: RACE 20

CJ Radune

C Elliott…7-1…$16 ($112) 

R Blaney…9-1…$13 ($117) 

D Hamlin…9-1…$13 ($117) 

K Larson…9-1…$13 ($117)

M Truex Jr…10-1…$11 ($110) 

W Byron…15-1…$8 ($120)

K Harvick…15-1…$8 ($120)

C Bell…18-1…$7 ($126) 

A Almirola…30-1…$4 ($120)

Kurt B…30-1…$4 ($120) 

B Keselowski…50-1…$3 ($150)

RECORD: 12 for 19

TOTAL: -284

Eric Smith

R Blaney…9-1…$12 ($108) 

Kyle B…9-1…$11 ($99) 

D Hamlin…9-1…$12 ($108) 

J Logano…10-1…$11 ($110)

M Truex Jr…10-1…$11 ($110) 

R Chastain…12-1…$10 ($120) 

K Harvick…15-1…$7 ($105)

C Bell…18-1…$6 ($108)

C Briscoe…20-1…$6 ($120) 

A Almirola…30-1…$4 ($120)

Kurt B…30-1…$4 ($120) 

A Cindric…30-1…$4 ($120)

C Custer…250-1…$2 ($500)

RECORD: 10 for 19

TOTAL: -422

Greg DePalma

C Elliott…7-1…$20 ($140) 

R Blaney…9-1…$25 ($225) 

M Truex Jr…10-1…$15 ($150) 

R Chastain…12-1…$10 ($120) 

K Harvick…15-1…$18 ($270)

A Almirola…30-1…$5 ($150)

A Bowman…30-1…$5 ($150) 

C Custer…250-1…$2 ($500)

RECORD: 8 for 19

TOTAL: -463

ARCHIVES

QUAKER STATE 400 PICKS: RACE 19

QUAKER STATE 400 WINNER: Chase Elliott

CJ Radune

R Blaney…10-1…$11 ($110) …5th

R Chastain…10-1…$11 ($110) …2nd  

C Elliott…10-1…$11 ($110) …1st  

Kyle B…12-1…$9 ($108) …20th  

K Larson…12-1…$9 ($108) …13th

J Logano…12-1…$9 ($108) …26th

D Hamlin…12-1…$9 ($108) …25th 

M Truex Jr…20-1…$7 ($140) …11th 

Kurt B…25-1…$6 ($150) …22nd

K Harvick…30-1…$5 ($150) …12th

M McDowell…35-1…$5 ($175) …15th

E Jones…40-1…$4 ($160) …4th

R Stenhouse Jr…40-1…$4 ($160) …31st

RECORD: 1 for 1

TOTAL: +21

Greg DePalma

R Blaney…10-1…$35 ($350) …5th  

R Chastain…10-1…$15 ($150) …2nd   

M Truex Jr…20-1…$10 ($200) …11th  

Kurt B…25-1…$8 ($200) …22nd 

A Almirola…30-1…$4 ($120) …8th

C Buescher…30-1…$4 ($120) …33rd

A Dillon…30-1…$4 ($120) …35th 

K Harvick…30-1…$8 ($240) …12th

M McDowell…35-1…$5 ($175) …15th

E Jones…40-1…$3 ($120) …4th

R Stenhouse Jr…40-1…$4 ($160) …31st 

RECORD: 0 for 1

TOTAL: -100

Eric Smith

R Blaney…10-1…$14 ($140) …5th    

R Chastain…10-1…$12 ($120) …2nd     

C Elliott…10-1…$15 ($150) …1st 

Kyle B…12-1…$10 ($120) …20th  

B Wallace…12-1…$10 ($120) …14th  

D Suarez…15-1…$7 ($105) …6th

C Bell…20-1…$6 ($120) …19th  

Kurt B…25-1…$5 ($125) …22nd  

A Cindric…25-1…$5 ($125) …3rd  

K Harvick…30-1…$4 ($120) …12th

M McDowell…35-1…$5 ($175) …15th

E Jones…40-1…$3 ($120) …4th

C Custer…100-1…$2 ($200) …9th

J Haley…100-1…$2 ($200) …7th

RECORD: 1 for 1

TOTAL: +65

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