Eric and Greg picked Bubba Wallace to win Sunday’s race at Kansas. They were rewarded with his victory for a 2nd straight week a non playoff winner won a race. Now, we head to the opening round finale at Bristol under the lights on Saturday.

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Bristol Night Race Preview
Just 3 times has a non playoff driver won the third race of the postseason. The last was back in 2007. I don’t see it happening again this weekend either. This is the 3rd year Bristol has been in this spot and all 3 years the winner was a playoff driver too.
So you can narrow this weekend down to the 16 eligible playoff drivers still fighting for a title then. Among that list, you can narrow it down further in the sense of looking at past Bristol trends as well as short track races this season.
Toyota has won twice on short tracks this season but their drivers note that these aren’t their strong suits either. That’s why I’d side more with a sleeper like Christopher Bell (stats above) rather than Denny Hamlin or Martin Truex Jr.
Chevrolet has 3 Bristol wins in the last 16 tries but one occurred just last year. That driver however in Kyle Larson (stats above) is also a fade which sets us up nicely for better drivers for better odds.
In the Ford camp, you have some good value here.

Bristol Night Race Top Stats
• We’ve had 4 different teams win the last 4 races. JGR and Penske won in 2019, SHR in 2020 and HMS in 2021.
• 3 of the last 4 Bristol race have went the final green to checkered stretch of at least 82 laps.
• Starting spot is key when you’re starting on the pole (3 winners in last 7).
o Last 4 winners have started in the top 5, 6 of the last 7 from the top 10.
o Starting spots of short tracks this season: 6th, 13th, 5th, 4th, 7th, 5th, 13th. The only ones not in the top 4 rows were both at Richmond….
Bristol Night Race Live Trends
• The last 2 years, the race winner finished in the top three of both stages each time.
• This season on short tracks, none of the winners of the race won a stage. In fact, just three times did they finish in the top 5 of Stage 1 (Phoenix, Martinsville, Dover) and just twice did they do so in Stage 2 (Martinsville, Richmond 2).
• Great race to live bet in a sense that 7 of the last 9 races saw the eventual race winner not lead a single lap in the first 2 stages including 5 of the last 6.

Race Odds

5-1…D Hamlin

7-1…Kyle B and K Larson

8-1…C Elliott

10-1…C Bell, K Harvick and M Truex Jr.

12-1…W Byron and R Chastain

15-1…R Blaney, J Logano and T Reddick

25-1…B Wallace

30-1…A Bowman

40-1…Suarez

50-1…A Almirola, C Briscoe, A Cindric, A Dillon and T Gibbs

100-1…AJ Allmendinger, C Buescher, C Custer, E Jones, B Keselowski, M McDowell and R Stenhouse Jr.

500-1…H Burton, T Dillon and J Haley

NOTE: Each analyst has a weekly wagering limit of $100.

NOTE: The weekly wagering limits will increase $100 for each playoff round ending with a $500 wagering limit for the Championship Four race.

BASS PRO SHOPS NIGHT RACE PICKS: RACE 29

Greg DePalma

C Elliott…8-1…$33 ($264) 

C Bell…10-1…$30 ($300) 

K Harvick…10-1…$50 ($500)

W Byron…12-1…$25 ($300)

R Blaney…15-1…$20 ($300)

T Reddick…15-1…$20 ($300) 

A Bowman…30-1…$10 ($300) 

C Briscoe…50-1…$4 ($200) 

A Dillon…50-1…$4 ($200) 

C Buescher…100-1…$2 ($200) 

R Stenhouse Jr…100-1…$2 ($200) 

RECORD: 14 for 28

TOTAL: -223

CJ Radune

D Hamlin…5-1…$46 ($230) 

Kyle B…7-1…$32 ($224)

K Larson…7-1…$32 ($224) 

C Elliott…8-1…$28 ($224) 

C Bell…10-1…$24 ($240) 

J Logano…15-1…$15 ($225) 

T Reddick…15-1…$15 ($225) 

A Bowman…30-1…$8 ($240) 

RECORD: 17 for 28

TOTAL: -613

Eric Smith

Kyle B…7-1…$28 ($196)

C Bell…10-1…$25 ($250) 

K Harvick…10-1…$28 ($280)

W Byron…12-1…$18 ($216)

R Chastain…12-1…$17 ($204)

R Blaney…15-1…$19 ($285)

J Logano…15-1…$28 ($420) 

A Bowman…30-1…$20 ($600) 

C Buescher…100-1…$4 ($400) 

E Jones…100-1…$5 ($500) 

B Keselowski…100-1…$5 ($500) 

R Stenhouse Jr…100-1…$3 ($300) 

RECORD: 15 for 28

TOTAL: -740

ARCHIVES

HOLLYWOOD CASINO 400 PICKS: RACE 28

HOLLYWOOD CASINO 400 WINNER: Bubba Wallace

Greg DePalma

K Larson…8-1…$35 ($280) …8^th 

C Bell…10-1…$40 ($400) …3^rd

T Reddick…12-1…$30 ($360) …35^th

R Blaney…15-1…$20 ($300) …9^th 

K Harvick…15-1…$20 ($300) …36^th

W Byron…20-1…$20 ($400) …6^th

J Logano…20-1…$10 ($200) …17^th

B Wallace…20-1…$10 ($200) …1^st

A Bowman…35-1…$15 ($525) …4^th 

RECORD: 1 for 1

TOTAL: +10

CJ Radune

D Hamlin…5-1…$45 ($225) …2^nd  

Kyle B…6-1…$37 ($222) …26^th

C Elliott…7-1…$32 ($224) …11^th

K Larson…8-1…$28 ($224) …8^th  

C Bell…10-1…$24 ($240) …3^rd 

T Reddick…12-1…$20 ($240) …35^th  

W Byron…20-1…$14 ($280) …6^th

RECORD: 0 for 1

TOTAL: -200

Eric Smith

D Hamlin…5-1…$49 ($245) …2^nd    

Kyle B…6-1…$40 ($240) …26^th

K Larson…8-1…$30 ($240) …8^th    

C Bell…10-1…$25 ($250) …3^rd   

T Reddick…12-1…$17 ($204) …35^th     

K Harvick…15-1…$14 ($210) …36^th

B Wallace…20-1…$12 ($240) …1^st

A Bowman…35-1…$7 ($245) …4^th   

D Suarez…35-1…$6 ($210) …10^th   

RECORD: 1 for 1TOTAL: +52