Prime Sports NASCAR – weekly picks update from Watkins Glen and whom we chose for Daytona

CJ was the only one to pick Kyle Larson and that paid off for a $26 win from last weeks race at Watkins Glen. Larson had struggled on road courses all season but used the final restart to make a pretentious move on race leader and teammate Chase Elliott to not only get by, but to score his 2nd win of the season.

Eric drops to -$616 and Greg to -$301 heading to the regular season finale on Saturday night at Daytona.

Coke Zero Sugar 400 Preview
The final regular season race is here. The trends are not on Ryan Blaney or Martin Truex Jr’s side. Just 5 drivers have posted consecutive summer race wins at Daytona International Speedway: Fireball Roberts (1962-1963), A.J. Foyt (1964-1965), Cale Yarborough (1967-1968) David Pearson (1972 – 1974) and Tony Stewart (2005-2006). Blaney is looking to become the 6th.
Truex Jr is a combined 0-for-71 between Daytona, Talladega and the 2 races at Atlanta this year.
To make matters worse for them, since the ‘Win and Your In’ format to the Playoffs was initiated in 2016, Erik Jones’ 2018 summer race win and William Byron in 2020 are the only summer race at Daytona to catapult a driver into the postseason – the other three winners were either not eligible for the Playoffs due to not competing for a championship in the series (Haley in 2019) or the drivers had already previously won in the same season (Keselowski in 2016 and Stenhouse in 2017).
For the Coke Zero Sugar 400, 3 of the last 5 winners have earned their first career Cup victories. 1 of the other 2 was just his second. For the Daytona 500, Denny Hamlin has won three of the last 7 years but the other four winners were Austin Dillon (2nd career win), Kurt Busch (1st career restrictor plate win), Michael McDowell (1st career Cup win) and Austin Cindric (1st career Cup win).
So the odds are great for a fluke winner which is why you should side on a lot of sleepers this weekend. However, you may want to sprinkle in a few favorites too only because the top 10 series winningest drivers at Daytona are all also in the NASCAR Hall of Fame too.
Team Penske, Joe Gibbs Racing and Hendrick Motorsports won all but five Speedweeks races between 2013 and 2019. Last year though, they were 0-for-3 on the oval. Stewart-Haas Racing (Aric Almirola), Richard Childress Racing (Austin Dillon) and Front Row Motorsports (Michael McDowell) won the Duels and the ‘500.
So far this year, RFK Racing is 2-for-2 and the “Big 3” 0-for-2. Can they end this five race slide?

Coke Zero Sugar 400 Top Stats
· 3 of the last 4 Daytona winners came from Row 3.
· Each of the last 13 Daytona winners started 5th on back.
· 12 of the last 15 races on the season were won from the top 4 rows including 6 of the last 9 from the top 5.
· Only 1 Daytona pole winner has won here since 2011 (Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2016).
· None of the last 11 points paying Daytona races were won by a series champion.

Coke Zero Sugar 400 Live Trends
· In both Stage 1s of Daytona/Talladega this year, the race winner didn’t score stage points in either of them.
· Just 2 of the last 13 races on the season did the eventual winner even finish in the top 5 of the opening stage.
· In both Stage 2’s of Daytona/Talladega this year, the race winner was 6th (500), 9th (Talladega).
· 14 of the last 18 races did the eventual race winner get stage points in the 2nd stage.
· Since Memorial Day weekend just once has a stage winner in either stage won a race (Chase Elliott in Atlanta).
· The race winner didn’t lead a lap at Daytona/Talladega until the final lap.
· 3 of the last 4 Coke Zero Sugar 400’s the winner led 7 or fewer laps including 2 of the 3 leading just the final lap.
· 8 of the last 11 races the eventual race winner led laps only in the final stage including 3 of the last 5.

Race Odds

10-1…C Elliott

12-1…R Blaney and D Hamlin

13-1…W Byron, R Chastain, K Larson and J Logano

15-1…Kyle B, A Cindric and B Wallace Jr.

18-1…T Reddick and M Truex Jr.

20-1…D Suarez

22-1…A Bowman

25-1…C Bell, K Harvick, B Keselowski and R Stenhouse Jr.

30-1…A Almirola, C Briscoe and A Dillon

35-1…C Buescher, T Gibbs and E Jones

40-1…M McDowell

50-1…J Haley

75-1…C Custer

100-1…T Dillon,D Hemric and C LaJoie

150-1…H Burton, T Gilliland and N Gragson

200-1…D Ragan

500-1…L Cassill

NOTE: Each analyst has a weekly wagering limit of $100.

NOTE: The weekly wagering limits will increase $100 for each playoff round ending with a $500 wagering limit for the Championship Four race.

COKE ZERO SUGAR 400 PICKS: RACE 26

Greg DePalma

C Elliott…10-1…$10 ($100)

R Blaney…12-1…$25 ($300) 

B Wallace…15-1…$25 ($375)

M Truex Jr…18-1…$5 ($90) 

C Bell…25-1…$4 ($100) 

A Almirola…30-1…$4 ($120) 

A Dillon…30-1…$4 ($120) 

C Buescher…35-1…$6 ($210) 

E Jones…35-1…$3 ($105)

M McDowell…40-1…$4 ($160) 

J Haley…50-1…$4 ($200)

T Dillon…100-1…$2 ($200)

C Lajoie…100-1…$3 ($300)

H Burton…150-1…$1 ($150)

RECORD: 11 for 25

TOTAL: -301

CJ Radune

C Elliott…10-1…$12 ($120)

R Blaney…12-1…$11 ($132) 

A Cindric…15-1…$9 ($135)

B Wallace…15-1…$9 ($135)

T Reddick…18-1…$8 ($144) 

M Truex Jr…18-1…$8 ($144) 

C Bell…25-1…$5 ($125)

B Keselowski…25-1…$6 ($150) 

R Stenhouse Jr…25-1…$5 ($125)

A Almirola…30-1…$4 ($120) 

A Dillon…30-1…$4 ($120) 

C Buescher…35-1…$5 ($175) 

T Gibbs…35-1…$4 ($140)

E Jones…35-1…$4 ($140)

M McDowell…40-1…$4 ($160) 

C Lajoie…100-1…$2 ($200)

RECORD: 15 for 25

TOTAL: -481

Eric Smith

C Elliott…10-1…$12 ($120)

R Blaney…12-1…$12 ($144) 

D Hamlin…12-1…$10 ($120) 

W Byron…13-1…$8 ($104)

R Chastain…13-1…$8 ($104)

B Wallace…15-1…$10 ($150)

B Keselowski…25-1…$5 ($125) 

R Stenhouse Jr…25-1…$5 ($125)

A Almirola…30-1…$4 ($120) 

A Dillon…30-1…$4 ($120) 

C Buescher…35-1…$5 ($175) 

E Jones…35-1…$5 ($175)

M McDowell…40-1…$3 ($120) 

J Haley…50-1…$3 ($150)

T Dillon…100-1…$2 ($200)

C Lajoie…100-1…$2 ($200)

H Burton…150-1…$1 ($150)

D Gilliland…150-1…$1 ($150)

RECORD: 13 for 25

TOTAL: -616

ARCHIVES

GO BOWLING AT THE GLEN PICKS: RACE 25

GO BOWLING AT THE GLEN WINNER: Kyle Larson

Greg DePalma

R Chastain…10-1…$9 ($90) …21st  

A Cindric…10-1…$9 ($90) …13th  

M Truex Jr…10-1…$20 ($200) …23rd

R Blaney…12-1…$15 ($180) …24th  

C Bell…18-1…$18 ($324) …8th 

AJ Allmendinger…25-1…$4 ($100) …2nd

C Briscoe…25-1…$4 ($100) …25th

C Buescher…30-1…$6 ($180) …9th 

J Logano…30-1…$6 ($180) …3rd  

M McDowell…30-1…$4 ($120) …6th 

B Wallace…100-1…$3 ($300) …35th

E Jones…250-1…$2 ($500) …10th 

RECORD: 0 for 1

TOTAL: -100

Eric Smith

C Elliott…5-1…$25 ($125) …4th

T Reddick…6-1…$19 ($114) …7th

R Chastain…10-1…$12 ($120) …21st   

A Cindric…10-1…$12 ($120) …13th   

D Suarez…18-1…$6 ($108) …5th  

AJ Allmendinger…25-1…$5 ($125) …2nd

C Buescher…30-1…$6 ($180) …9th 

M McDowell…30-1…$5 ($150) …6th  

B Keselowski…50-1…$3 ($150) …19th

T Gibbs…100-1…$2 ($200) …26th

E Jones…250-1…$2 ($500) …10th 

H Burton…500-1…$2 ($1000) …28th

J Haley…500-1…$1 ($500) …18th 

RECORD: 0 for 1

TOTAL: -100

CJ Radune

C Elliott…5-1…$24 ($120) …4th

K Larson…9-1…$14 ($126) …1st

R Chastain…10-1…$12 ($120) …21st     

A Cindric…10-1…$12 ($120) …13th     

Kyle B…15-1…$8 ($120) …32nd  

D Hamlin…15-1…$9 ($135) …20th   

D Suarez…18-1…$7 ($126) …5th    

AJ Allmendinger…25-1…$5 ($125) …2nd

C Buescher…30-1…$4 ($120) …9th  

K Raikkonen…50-1…$3 ($150) …37th  

T Gibbs…100-1…$2 ($200) …26th 

RECORD: 1 for 1

TOTAL: +40

One comment

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s