Eric just scored his 16th win of the season via Martin Truex Jr. including four straight now. He’s inching closer and closer to positive money again and Bristol was the spot this past spring that put him there initially. Can it happen again?
Eric had all four of his drivers he bet on in the top five prior to the final pit stop but ended up 1-2-5-9 when it was all said and done. CJ got a win too, his 13th of the year as he also had 1-2-5-6-9.
After earning $700 in winnings the week prior, Greg had another win for all three of us picking up the W. He had 1-3-4-6-8 among others to get to -$229. Eric is now -$374 with CJ -$704.
Who do they go with on Saturday night? Just three times has a non playoff driver won the third playoff race of the postseason, so the odds of that happening at Bristol are low. Ross Chastain with a pair of top fives in the playoffs so far is the only legit threat. Everyone else we can dismiss.
Does Toyota get the opening round sweep?
Denny Hamlin has a top two finish in both playoff races to go along with lead 45% (343-for-767) of all laps this postseason. He won this race in 2019.
Kyle Busch has three wins in his last six Bristol starts including four straight top fours. Three of those four are top twos.
Christopher Bell was runner-up in Loudon and third in Richmond last week. he has five top eight’s in his last nine starts on the season and was very good on this track in the Xfinity Series.
I’d say the chances are high then.
For Martin Truex Jr. he finally has room to breathe this week. He just won and is automatically into the Round of 12. That’s a good thing because Bristol isn’t one of Truex’s best tracks. In fact, it’s one of his worst.
Truex, finished 24th last year. It was his 13th time he’s finished outside the top 20 in his last 15 overall Bristol starts. His last six finishes here have been 30th, 30th, 17th, 13th and now 24th. He’s had one top 10 over his last 17 Bristol starts with his last top five being back in 2012.
Luckily for him, he’s not needing a solid result to move on because if he did, this could be his kryptonite. His teammates though could pick up the slack and sweep all three races in Round 1.
So, who could beat them?
Kyle Larson has four top three’s in his last five races on the season and scored a pair of runner-ups in 2018 at the track. He was sixth in this race in 2019.
Chase Elliott has been 3rd, 5th and 7th in his last three Bristol night races.
Joey Logano has 7 top 10’s in his last 11 there.
The best value may be the playoff bubble drivers for the second round.
Brad Keselowski (+13), Kyle Busch (+8), Aric Almirola (+3) and Kurt Busch (+0) hold onto the final four spots on the good side of the cut line. The thing is, they’ve combined to win 5 of the last 7 at Bristol on the concrete including Keselowski having 2 top 3’s in his last 3 there, Busch 3 top 2’s in his last 4 including 4 straight in the top 4, KuBusch having 4 top 10’s in his last 5 and Almirola being fifth a year ago.
Good luck surpassing them especially when you need stage points too. The bottom four in the standings have combined for six stage points through the first two playoff races. Keselowski is the only one among the guys on the good side to have less (4).
Still, Alex Bowman (-0) has just one top five in his last 11 starts on the season and four straight finishes of 15th or worse at Bristol. Tyler Reddick (-5) was fourth in this race last year but he’s only had two top fives all season. His last four finishes on the year were 21st, 29th, 18th and 15th.
William Byron (-18) has no stage points at all this playoffs, five of his last eight finishes being 23rd or worse and 5 of his 6 Bristol starts seeing him finish 16th or worse.
That leaves Michael McDowell (-38) who was 10th in this race last year, but also has no stage points this postseason and has seen his last 14 races result in a finish of 16th or worse.
I don’t like their chances. Neither of Kevin Harvick’s who won this race last year but hasn’t been better than fourth other than once all season and hasn’t even won since this point a year ago. He’s had one top five in his last seven at Bristol.
Ryan Blaney has 1 top five in his last 11 at Bristol as well.
Race Odds
4-1…Kyle B and K Larson
6-1…D Hamlin
8-1…C Elliott
10-1…J Logano
11-1…K Harvick and B Keselowski
12-1…R Blaney
14-1…M Truex Jr.
18-1…Kurt B
22-1…C Bell
25-1…A Bowman and W Byron
30-1…A Almirola, R Chastain and T Reddick
45-1… A Dillon
50-1…M DiBenedetto
80-1…R Stenhouse Jr. and D Wallace Jr.
100-1…C Custer and D Suarez
130-1…C Buescher and Newman
150-1…C Briscoe and E Jones
250-1…M McDowell
BASS PRO SHOPS NIGHT RACE: RACE 29 PICKS
Greg DePalma
Kyle B…4-1…$100 ($400)
D Hamlin…6-1…$25 ($150)
R Blaney…12-1…$30 ($360)
Kurt B…18-1…$20 ($360)
C Bell…22-1…$10 ($220)
R Chastain…30-1…$8 ($240)
M DiBenedetto…50-1…$7 ($350)
RECORD: 8 for 28
TOTAL: -279
BASS PRO SHOPS NIGHT RACE: RACE 29 PICKS
Eric Smith
Kyle B…4-1…$80 ($320)
K Larson…4-1…$60 ($240)
J Logano…10-1…$35 ($350)
Kurt B…18-1…$15 ($270)
C Bell…22-1…$10 ($220)
RECORD: 16 for 28
TOTAL: -410
BASS PRO SHOPS NIGHT RACE: RACE 29 PICKS
CJ Radune
Kyle B…4-1…$65 ($260)
K Larson…4-1…$60 ($240)
D Hamlin…6-1…$40 ($240)
C Elliott…8-1…$35 ($280)
RECORD: 13 for 28
TOTAL: -849
Weekly Race Points Standings
1 Greg +50/-279
2 Eric +100/-410
3 CJ +75/-849
WEEKLY PICKS ARCHIVES
RACE FUTURES: FEDERATED AUTO PARTS 400
FEDERATED AUTO PARTS 400WINNER: MARTIN TRUEX JR.
FEDERATED AUTO PARTS 400: RACE 28 PICKS
Greg DePalma
M Truex Jr…4-1…$50 ($200) …1st
K Larson…9-1…$50 ($450) …6th
K Harvick…11-1…$25 ($275) …8th
C Bell…15-1…$25 ($375) …3rd
A Almirola…30-1…$10 ($300) …14th
Kurt B…30-1…$25 ($750) …37th/Acc.
R Chastain…50-1…$10 ($500) …7th
A Dillon…50-1…$5 ($250) …11th
RECORD: 1 for 1
TOTAL: +50
FEDERATED AUTO PARTS 400: RACE 28 PICKS
Eric Smith
M Truex Jr…4-1…$60 ($240) …1st
D Hamlin…5-1…$60 ($300) …2nd
Kyle B…6-1…$40 ($240) …9th
J Logano…7-1…$40 ($280) …5th
RECORD: 1 for 1
TOTAL: +100
FEDERATED AUTO PARTS 400: RACE 28 PICKS
CJ Radune
M Truex Jr…4-1…$55 ($220) …1st
D Hamlin…5-1…$45 ($225) …2nd
Kyle B…6-1…$40 ($240) …9th
J Logano…7-1…$30 ($210) …5th
K Larson…9-1…$30 ($270) …6th
RECORD: 1 for 1
TOTAL: +75
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