Prime Sports NASCAR – weekly picks for Sunday’s Cup race in Michigan

A shock win last week put us -$100 each for a second straight week via AJ Allmendinger’s win in the Verizon 200 at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Eric had (12-1) Denny Hamlin leading on the final restart and both he and Greg had 35-1 (Chase Briscoe) starting alongside. Neither won. Instead, it was a longer shot in Allmendinger.

Now, can we get a win streak started this weekend in Michigan?

Kyle Larson (3-1) enters as the favorite and for rightful reasons too. He’s been the best driver on the season heading to his best track on the circuit. Larson, has won at Michigan three times.

You get his teammate Chase Elliott (8-1) at the fourth best odds with Elliott has nine top 10 finishes in 10 Michigan tries including three of which being runner-ups.

The meat in the sandwich between them are Kyle Busch (7-1) and Martin Truex Jr. (8-1). Other than a bad race in Nashville, a crash while leading in the rain at Loudon and a spin while running well in the top five at Indy last week, Busch has had a top five in every race since the Coca-Cola 600 on May 30. He’s also had eight straight top 10’s in Michigan too.

For Truex, he has four straight top five finishes on the Irish Hills race track and six top eight’s in his last eight tries there overall.

Kevin Harvick is also 8-1 and has won each of the last three Michigan tries. Also, he’s won four of the last five there in general including five top two’s in his last six. The problem is, he hasn’t finished better than fourth since May 2 at the Kansas Speedway. In fact, the runner-up that day is his only finish better than fourth all year (24 races). He only has six top five results on the season. Is he ready to win?

I like the value pick in Denny Hamlin (11-1) who has two runner-ups in his last three tries at Michigan including four top eight’s in his last five there overall.

I also like the Team Penske trio of sleepers this week.

Joey Logano is 16-1 with three wins on the track and 5 top 10’s in his last six tries up there including 14 of his last 16 overall. His teammate Ryan Blaney (18-1) has four top 10’s in his last six starts there and coming off of a runner-up last Sunday in Indy. Brad Keselowski is also 16-1 and struggling on the season but has four top six finishes in his last six tries on his hometrack.

A couple of sleepers would be Kurt Busch (25-1) with nine top 12 finishes in his last 10 Michigan tries including three top six finishes in his last six overall. He was runner-up in the spring race of 2019 and 10th in both races a year ago. He has six top eight finishes in his last nine starts on the year.

What about Austin Dillon (45-1)? He’s had some good success in Michigan and was eighth in Race 2 last year.

There’s also Matt DiBenedetto (50-1). He was seventh in Race 2 last year and driving for a team that’s typically strong in Michigan. He’s had a top 11 in five straight races now too.

Who did we choose? Find out below.

Race Odds

3-1…K Larson

7-1…Kyle B, C Elliott and K Harvick

8-1…M Truex Jr.

9-1…D Hamlin and J Logano

12-1…W Byron and B Keselowski

14-1…R Blaney

20-1…A Bowman

25-1…C Bell and Kurt B

40-1…T Reddick

50-1…A Dillon

66-1…A Almirola and R Chastain

80-1…M DiBenedetto

125-1…C Buescher

150-1…C Briscoe, Newman, D Suarez and D Wallace Jr.

200-1…C Custer and R Stenhouse Jr.

250-1…E Jones

300-1…R Preece

400-1…M McDowell

 

NOTE: Each analyst has a weekly wagering limit of $100.

NOTE: The weekly wagering limits will increase $100 for each playoff round ending with a $500 wagering limit for the Championship Four race. 

 

FIREKEEPERS CASINO 400: RACE 25 PICKS

 

Eric Smith

K Larson…3-1…$40 ($120)  

Kyle B…7-1…$15 ($105)  

C Elliott…7-1…$15 ($105)  

M Truex Jr…8-1…$13 ($104)  

R Blaney…14-1…$7 ($98) 

C Bell…25-1…$4 ($100)  

T Reddick…40-1…$3 ($120)  

M DiBenedetto…80-1…$2 ($160)  

C Buescher…125-1…$1 ($125)  

 

RECORD: 12 for 24

TOTAL: -561 

 

FIREKEEPERS CASINO 400: RACE 25 PICKS

 

CJ Radune

K Larson…3-1…$38 ($114)  

Kyle B…7-1…$17 ($119)  

C Elliott…7-1…$17 ($119)  

D Hamlin…9-1…$15 ($135)  

B Keselowski…12-1…$13 ($156)  

 

RECORD: 11 for 24

TOTAL: -884

 

FIREKEEPERS CASINO 400: RACE 25 PICKS

 

Greg DePalma

K Harvick…7-1…$40 ($280) 

R Blaney…14-1…$30 ($420) 

A Bowman…20-1…$10 ($200)  

Kurt B…25-1…$10 ($250)  

M DiBenedetto…80-1…$6 ($480)  

C Buescher…125-1…$4 ($500)  

 

RECORD: 5 for 24

TOTAL: -1279

 

Weekly Race Points Standings

 

Week 23 Indianapolis Road

1 Eric -100/-561

2 CJ -100/-884

3 Greg -100/-1279


WEEKLY PICKS ARCHIVES

 

VERIZON 200 AT THE BRICKYARD: RACE 24 PICKS

GO BOWLING AT THE GLEN WINNER: AJ ALLMENDINGER

 

Eric Smith

C Elliott…2-1…$60 ($120) …4th

Kyle B…9-1…$12 ($108) …20th

D Hamlin…12-1…$9 ($108) …23rd

C Bell…18-1…$8 ($144) …36th/Acc.

J Logano…25-1…$8 ($200) …34th/Acc.

C Briscoe…35-1…$3 ($105) …26th/Pk.

 

RECORD: 0 for 1

TOTAL: -100

 

VERIZON 200 AT THE BRICKYARD: RACE 24 PICKS

 

CJ Radune

C Elliott…2-1…$55 ($110) …4th  

M Truex Jr…6-1…$20 ($120) …15th

Kyle B…9-1…$13 ($117) …20th  

C Bell…18-1…$7 ($126) …36th/Acc. 

A Cindric…30-1…$5 ($130) …9th

 

RECORD: 0 for 1

TOTAL: -100

 

VERIZON 200 AT THE BRICKYARD: RACE 24 PICKS

 

Greg DePalma

C Bell…18-1…$70 ($1,260) …36th/Acc.

C Briscoe…35-1…$10 ($350) …26th/Pk.

R Chastain…40-1…$10 ($400) …29th   

M DiBenedetto…60-1…$10 ($600) …5th   

 

RECORD: 0 for 1

TOTAL: -100

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