Prime Sports NASCAR – weekly Indy picks

None of us hit Kyle Larson last week because we went with better odds elsewhere. Now, we have to take Larson seriously as he’s won two of the five road courses run in 2021 and was runner-up in another. With that said, Eric and CJ didn’t quite trust it yet due to having better odds elsewhere to choose from.

I mean you can’t ignore Elliott either who drove from the back to finish runner-up last Sunday in Watkins Glen for his eighth top two result in the last nine road course races including six of which being wins. He should have also won at Daytona back in February too.

Elliott, has also won the last three inaugural road course races in Cup (Daytona, COTA, Road America). So, with it really being between Elliott and Larson, he sided with the defending Cup champion with the advantage.

Either way, you’re good as Hendrick Motorsports has now won 8 of the last 9 overall road course races in general including Larson and Elliott going 1-2 in three of the five this season alone. You certainly could take both but lay the field, Eric chose to take one and a couple of others.

I mean, why not?

Counting Joe Gibbs Racing, them and HMS have combined to win each of the last 10 road course races.

Throw in Furniture Row Racing (Martin Truex Jr.) who was aligned with JGR, these three teams have won 13 of the last 14 road course races. The only one they didn’t win was when Ryan Blaney (Team Penske) was victorious in 2018 on the Charlotte ROVAL when Truex was crashed in the final turn on the final lap or else it would be 14 straight.

They swept the entire top seven of the finishing order last weekend at that.

Eric and CJ both went with three JGR drivers. Eric didn’t take Martin Truex Jr. since the JGR driver hasn’t won on a road course since 2019 and has finished in the top five just twice this season on them. He felt that there’s better value further down.

I mean you get Kyle Busch (9-1) who has five top five finishes in his last six tries and the only one he didn’t finish in the top five at was the rain race in New Hampshire where he crashed while leading on a wet racing surface. In fact, since May 30, he’s only been outside of the top 10 twice.

Then you get 12-1 odds on Denny Hamlin. He’s had four top eight results in five road course starts in 2021.

What about 18-1 on Christopher Bell? He won at Daytona, was runner-up in Road America and had a top three car before being spun out by Larson late in Watkins Glen.

CJ went with Busch and Bell but swapped Hamlin for Truex.

Stewart-Haas Racing is the only other team to have won since 2015 on road courses. Hendrick has won 9 times, JGR has won 4 times, Furniture Row, SHR and Penske each twice themselves. That’s 19 races.

Eric took Chase Briscoe (35-1) with SHR since Briscoe is really the only driver to even have experience on this road course in winning last year’s Xfinity Series race on it. Plus, he has three top 10 finishes on road courses this season at that. He also took Joey Logano (25-1). I mean last time Logano was these types of odds he won at Bristol. This is Penske’s track so you know he’d like to have a driver win the inaugural event. Don’t think Logano doesn’t have information from inside the operation since they have an INDYCAR team at his disposal too. Also, Logano has three top four finishes in five road course races this season too.

CJ went with road racing ace Austin Cindric (30-1) as his longer shot sleeper.

Greg went with all longer shots to make up on his deficit in a big way. He took Bell, Briscoe, Ross Chastain and Matt DiBenedetto and would make at the very least $350 if one of the four wins. If Bell wins, he takes home $1,260.

Race Odds

2-1…C Elliott (Eric, CJ)

3-1…K Larson

6-1…M Truex Jr. (CJ)

9-1…Kyle B (Eric, CJ)

12-1…D Hamlin (Eric)

18-1…C Bell (Eric, CJ, Greg)

20-1…AJ Allmendinger and W Byron

25-1…J Logano (Eric)

28-1…K Harvick

30-1…A Bowman and A Cindric (CJ)

35-1…R Blaney and C Briscoe (Eric, Greg)

40-1…Kurt B, R Chastain (Greg), B Keselowski and T Reddick

60-1…M DiBenedetto (Greg)

80-1…A Almirola and M McDowell

100-1…C Buescher

130-1…A Dillon and C Custer

150-1…E Jones and D Suarez

200-1…R Stenhouse Jr.

250-1…R Newman R Preece and D Wallace Jr.

VERIZON 200 AT THE BRICKYARD: RACE 24 PICKS

 

Eric Smith

C Elliott…2-1…$60 ($120)

Kyle B…9-1…$12 ($108)

D Hamlin…12-1…$9 ($108)

C Bell…18-1…$8 ($144)

J Logano…25-1…$8 ($200)

C Briscoe…35-1…$3 ($105)

RECORD: 12 for 23

TOTAL: -461

 

VERIZON 200 AT THE BRICKYARD: RACE 24 PICKS

 

CJ Radune

C Elliott…2-1…$55 ($110)

M Truex Jr…6-1…$20 ($120)

Kyle B…9-1…$13 ($117)

C Bell…18-1…$7 ($126)

A Cindric…30-1…$5 ($130)

 

RECORD: 11 for 23

TOTAL: -784

 

VERIZON 200 AT THE BRICKYARD: RACE 24 PICKS

Greg DePalma

C Bell…18-1…$70 ($1,260)

C Briscoe…35-1…$10 ($350)

R Chastain…40-1…$10 ($400)

M DiBenedetto…60-1…$10 ($600)

RECORD: 5 for 23

TOTAL: -1179

 

Weekly Race Points Standings

 

Week 22 Watkins Glen

1 Eric -100/-461

2 CJ -100/-784

3 Greg -100/-1179

WEEKLY PICKS ARCHIVES

 

GO BOWLING AT THE GLEN: RACE 23 PICKS

GO BOWLING AT THE GLEN WINNER: KYLE LARSON

 

Eric Smith

C Elliott…2-1…$60 ($120) …2nd

M Truex Jr…6-1…$20 ($120) …3rd

D Hamlin…11-1…$9 ($99) …5th

J Logano…12-1…$9 ($108) …22nd

C Briscoe…50-1…$2 ($100) …9th

RECORD: 0 for 1

TOTAL: -100

 

GO BOWLING AT THE GLEN: RACE 23 PICKS

 

CJ Radune

C Elliott…2-1…$60 ($120) …2nd

M Truex Jr…6-1…$20 ($120) …3rd

Kyle B…7-1…$20 ($140) …4th

 

RECORD: 0 for 1

TOTAL: -100

 

GO BOWLING AT THE GLEN: RACE 23 PICKS

Greg DePalma

M Truex Jr…6-1…$15 ($90) …3rd

Kyle B…7-1…$13 ($91) …4th

D Hamlin…11-1…$8 ($88) …5th

J Logano…12-1…$15 ($180) …22nd

C Bell…15-1…$10 ($150) …7th

R Blaney…25-1…$10 ($250) …14th

A Bowman…25-1…$10 ($250) …20th

B Keselowski…30-1…$10 ($300) …35th

R Chastain…40-1…$5 ($200) …12th

T Reddick…40-1…$2 ($80) …10th

M DiBenedetto…50-1…$2 ($100) …11th

RECORD: 0 for 1

TOTAL: -100

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