Prime Sports NASCAR – weekly picks recap from Richmond and ones to bet for Talladega

For the fifth time in the last six races, Eric nailed the winner. He went with Alex Bowman as his long shot at 33-1 and like he did with Joey Logano a few weeks ago, the longer shot hit. Bowman, pushed Eric near the plus money range now for the nine race season as he’s -$2.

Eric in fact had three of his seven drivers that he wagered on score a top five as he also had Denny Hamlin (2nd) and Martin Truex Jr. (5th). Throw in William Byron (7th) and that’s four of the top seven finishers he bet on.

CJ and Greg were both close. CJ had the 2-3-5 finishers with Greg getting 2-3-4. Unfortunately for them, they both went with the other 33-1 driver in Austin Dillon who came home 10th.

Last Week’s Recap For Picks

For this week, Eric remained conservative but a little more aggressive on his picks. He went with Truex on the off chance to wins back-to-back races on the season to win his money back. Odds weren’t on Truex’ side in the sense it’s hard to do in NASCAR, but Truex was also is 2-for-2 on the 750 horsepower package and has won two of the last three races at Richmond and runner-up in the other.

He also went with Hamlin and Keselowski to win $20 as Hamlin has a top 5 result in all but one race run this season including a third in both races on the 750 package prior to Richmond. He has two third place finishes in his last four Richmond tries too. For Keselowski, he won the lone Richmond race last year and has five straight top 10 results on the .75 mile track.

He went with Larson to win $50 with Larson having four top seven results in his last five Richmond tries and a pair of top 10’s on 750 tracks. Byron (18-1), Bell (25-1) and Bowman (33-1) are his longer plays with Byron having a pair of top 10’s on 750 tracks too. Same for Bell who even won a 750 race at Daytona on the road course. Bowman, was ninth at Richmond last year.

CJ also went with Truex, Hamlin, Keselowski and Larson. He threw money Joey Logano’s way with his long shot being Austin Dillon. The RCR driver has three top six results in his last four Richmond tries and is 33-1.

Greg went with Hamlin, Logano, Bell and Dillon but also threw money Chase Elliott’s way. Elliott, has a pair of top fives on 750 tracks and was fifth in Richmond last September. Greg went with more longer shots in Ryan Newman (66-1), Tyler Reddick (66-1) and Daniel Suarez (150-1).

The top drivers not picked this week are Kyle Busch (8-1), Kevin Harvick (10-1) and Ryan Blaney (14-1). Both Busch and Harvick are struggling in terms of speed this year while Blaney’s best finish at Richmond in nine career starts is 18th. He admitted to Eric last year that this track isn’t one of his best.

This Week

We have the top drivers covered this week. All the favorites minus Kurt Busch are taken. Busch, is 0-for-40 at Talladega so not a surprise here.

Alex Bowman, Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. are the only ones from 6-1 to 30-1 not taken outside of Busch.

Truex has one top five there since 2007 with Harvick scoring just one in his last 18 tries at Talladega.

The trio of experts though all agreed on Denny Hamlin (6-1), Aric Almirola (15-1), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (16-1), Chris Buescher (45-1), Bubba Wallace (50-1) and Matt DiBenedetto (66-1).

Hamlin has 3 straight top four finishes on the track and led nearly half the race back in February in Daytona.

Almirola, has 8 top 10s in his last 9 Talladega starts. Stenhouse is always at his best on these tracks while Wallace and DiBenedetto were too good to pass up for these odds.

Eric kept it conservative overall in trying to get on the positive side. That’s why he went with Hamlin even though he’d lose some money if he wins. It’s better to lose $10 than $100.

Everyone else puts him on the positive side which is why he sprinkled money on 7 of the top 8 drivers. Plus, he’s hit some longer shots too lately which is why he went with 5 of the bottom 9 drivers too.

Greg went more for the home run. He has Hamlin to win $20, but all the rest minus Suarez gain him some good gains. 10 of his 11 drivers are all 15-1 or higher.

CJ, like Eric, went with more drivers to get what hopefully will be a win.

Race Odds

6-1…D Hamlin (Eric, CJ, Greg)

9-1…J Logano (Eric, CJ)

10-1…R Blaney (Eric, CJ)

11-1…C Elliott (Eric) and B Keselowski (Eric, CJ)

15-1…A Almirola (Eric, CJ, Greg)

16-1…Kurt B and R Stenhouse Jr. (Eric, CJ, Greg)

18-1…A Bowman and Kyle B (Greg)

20-1…W Byron (Eric, CJ), K Harvick

22-1…K Larson (CJ) T Reddick (Greg) and M Truex Jr.

25-1…C Bell (Eric, CJ)

30-1…R Newman (Eric, CJ)

33-1…A Dillon (CJ, Greg) and R Preece

40-1…E Jones (Greg)

45-1…C Buescher (Eric, CJ, Greg)

50-1…B Wallace Jr. (Eric, CJ, Greg)

66-1…C Briscoe, R Chastain, C Custer, DiBenedetto (Eric, CJ, Greg), McDowell (Eric) and D Suarez (Greg)

100-1…C LaJoie (Eric)

 

GEICO 500: RACE 10 PICKS

 

Eric Smith

D Hamlin…6-1…$15 ($90) 

J Logano…9-1…$12 ($108) 

R Blaney…10-1…$12 ($120) 

B Keselowski…11-1…$10 ($110) 

C Elliott…11-1…$10 ($110) 

A Almirola…15-1…$8 ($120) 

R Stenhouse Jr…16-1…$7 ($112)

W Byron…20-1…$6 ($120) 

C Bell…25-1…$4 ($100) 

R Newman…30-1…$4 ($120) 

C Buescher…45-1…$3 ($135) 

B Wallace Jr…50-1…$3 ($150) 

M McDowell…66-1…$2 ($132) 

M DiBenedetto…66-1…$2 ($132) 

C LaJoie…100-1…$2 ($200) 

 

RECORD: 5 for 9

TOTAL: -2

 

GEICO 500: RACE 10 PICKS

 

CJ Radune

D Hamlin…6-1…$20 ($120) 

J Logano…9-1…$13 ($117) 

R Blaney…10-1…$11 ($110) 

B Keselowski…11-1…$10 ($110) 

A Almirola…15-1…$7 ($105) 

R Stenhouse Jr…16-1…$7 ($112)

W Byron…20-1…$6 ($120) 

K Larson…22-1…$5 ($110) 

C Bell…25-1…$5 ($125) 

R Newman…30-1…$4 ($120) 

A Dillon…33-1…$4 ($132) 

C Buescher…45-1…$3 ($135) 

B Wallace Jr…50-1…$3 ($150) 

M DiBenedetto…66-1…$2 ($132) 

 

RECORD: 3 for 9

TOTAL: -529

 

GEICO 500: RACE 10 PICKS

 

Greg DePalma

D Hamlin…6-1…$20 ($120) 

A Almirola…15-1…$10 ($150) 

R Stenhouse Jr…16-1…$15 ($240)

Kyle B…20-1…$20 ($360) 

T Reddick…22-1…$10 ($220) 

A Dillon…33-1…$7 ($231) 

E Jones…40-1…$5 ($200) 

C Buescher…45-1…$5 ($225) 

B Wallace Jr…50-1…$3 ($150) 

M DiBenedetto…66-1…$3 ($198) 

D Suarez…66-1…$2 ($132) 

 

RECORD: 1 for 9

TOTAL: -560

 

Weekly Race Points Standings

 

Week 9 Richmond

1 Eric +36/-2

2 CJ -100/-529

3 Greg -100/-560

 

Week 8 Martinsville

1 Eric +20/-38

2 CJ +32/-429

3 Greg -100/-460

 

Week 7 Bristol Dirt

1 Eric +290/-58

2 Greg -100/-360

3 CJ -100/-461

 

Week 6 Atlanta

1 Greg +240/-260

2 Eric -100/-348

3 CJ +19/-361

 

Week 5 Phoenix

1 Eric +20/-248

2 CJ +20/-380

3 Greg -100/-500

 

Week 4 Las Vegas

1 Eric +32/-268 

2 Greg -100/-400

3 CJ -100/-400

 

Week 3 Homestead

1 Greg -100/-200

2 CJ -100/-200

3 Eric -100/-200

 

Week 2 Daytona Road

1 Greg -100/-200

2 CJ -100/-200

3 Eric -100/-200

 

Week 1 Daytona 500

1 Greg -100

2 CJ -100

3 Eric -100 

 

WEEKLY PICKS ARCHIVES

 

TOYOTA OWNERS 400: RACE 9 PICKS

TOYOTA OWNERS 400 WINNER: ALEX BOWMAN

 

Eric Smith

M Truex Jr…4-1…$25 ($100) …5th

D Hamlin…6-1…$20 ($120) …2nd

B Keselowski…6-1…$20 ($120) …14th

K Larson…10-1…$15 ($150) …18th

W Byron…18-1…$8 ($144) …7th

C Bell…25-1…$8 ($200) …4th

A Bowman…33-1…$4 ($132) …1st

 

RECORD: 1 for 1

TOTAL: +36

 

TOYOTA OWNERS 400: RACE 9 PICKS

 

CJ Radune

M Truex Jr…4-1…$29 ($116) …5th

D Hamlin…6-1…$20 ($120) …2nd

B Keselowski…6-1…$19 ($114) …14th

J Logano…7-1…$16 ($112) …3rd

K Larson…10-1…$12 ($120) …18th

A Dillon…33-1…$4 ($132) …10th

 

RECORD: 0 for 1

TOTAL: -100

 

TOYOTA OWNERS 400: RACE 9 PICKS

 

Greg DePalma

D Hamlin…6-1…$43 ($258) …2nd

J Logano…7-1…$13 ($91) …3rd

C Elliott…8-1…$22 ($176) …12th

C Bell…25-1…$12 ($300) …4th

A Dillon…33-1…$6 ($198) …10th

R Newman…66-1…$1 ($66) …30th

T Reddick…66-1…$1 ($66) …20th

D Suarez…150-1…$2 ($300) …16th

 

RECORD: 0 for 1

TOTAL: -100

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