Winless Streaks

Felix Rosenqvist hasn’t won in 60 races. He’s on the pole. Scott McLaughlin hasn’t won since Barber (12 races ago). He starts 2nd. Rinus VeeKay hasn’t won since the 2021 Indy GP (45 races ago). He starts 7th. Will Power is riding a 27 race drought. He’ll start 8th. That’s 4 of the top 8 needing wins. Can they?

“You’ll fight pretty hard, I know that,” Power said on being winless. “You’ll fight pretty hard. If there’s someone there on the last lap, last corner, you haven’t got a win, yeah, certainly will be floating through your mind about what you might just do (smiling).

Power has won at least one race every season since 2007. The defending series champion is winless in the first 16 races run in his championship defense. He’s almost out of time.

Palou went winless for the first 16 races a year ago before winning the season finale. The only time someone went winless was Scott Dixon in 2004. Ironically enough, that’s the only season since 2003 that Dixon didn’t win a race during.

Can Power avoid their company?

Champions And How Long It Took To Win The Next Season

2022 – Alex Palou 16 races – won the 17th and final race

2021 – Scott Dixon – won the 3rd race at Texas

2020 – Josef Newgarden – won the 6th race at Iowa

2019 – Scott Dixon – won the 8th race in Belle Isle

2018 – Josef Newgarden won the 4th race at Barber

2017 – Simon Pagenaud – won the 4th race at Phoenix

2016 – Scott Dixon – won the 2nd race at Phoenix

2015 – Will Power – won the 5th race in the Indy Grand Prix

2014 – Scott Dixon – won the 15th race at Mid-Ohio

2013- Ryan Hunter-Reay – won the 2nd race at Barber

2012 – Dario Franchitti – won the 5th race in the Indy 500

2011 – Dario Franchitti – won the season opener at St. Pete

2010 – Dario Franchitti – won the 6th race in the Indy 500

2009 – Scott Dixon – won the 3rd race at Kansas

2008 – Dario Franchitti – went to NASCAR

2007 – Sam Hornish Jr. – won the 7th race at Texas

2006 – Dan Wheldon – won the season opener at Homestead

2005 – Tony Kanaan – won the 8th race at Kansas

2004 – Scott Dixon – winless

2003 – Sam Hornish Jr. – won the 12th race at Kentucky

2002 – Sam Hornish Jr. – won the season opener at Homestead

2001 – Buddy Lazier – won the 6th race at Pikes Peak

2000 – Greg Ray – won the 7th race at Phoenix

1999 – Kenny Brack – won the 4th race in the Indy 500

1998 – Tony Stewart – won the season opener in Disney

1997 – Scott Sharp – won the season opener in Loudon

Power’s 41 career wins rank fifth all-time. So, there’s a high likelihood that he can find victory lane this season. However, he’s running out of time.

He has finished 2nd, 26th and 3rd in his three Laguna Seca tries.

He’s not the only one hoping to end a drought. No one wants to go winless throughout an entire season. Heading into the season finale, here’s who’s riding a longer winless streak: Graham Rahal (107 races ago – Belle Isle 2017), Felix Rosenqvist (60 races ago – Road America 2020), Rinus VeeKay (45 starts ago – GMR Grand Prix 2021), Helio Castroneves (39 races ago – Indianapolis 2021), Colton Herta (29 races ago – GMR Grand Prix 2022), Will Power (27 races ago – Belle Isle 2022), Pato O’Ward (22 races ago – Iowa 2022), Alexander Rossi (21 races ago – Gallagher Grand Prix 2021).

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Attrition

Before I go too far here, I do want to preface that I’ve seen this before. I’ve seen messy practice sessions to where we’re all wondering if the race is going to be a complete shit show and it turns out to be as clean as any other NTT INDYCAR SERIES race.

However, this weekend in Monterey just seems different.

There were 21 stoppages for off track excursions during the test on Thursday and the pair of practice sessions this weekend. There were 3 more in qualifying on Saturday.

As far as why so much carnage? Well it’s simple. The track being repaved and track position meaning so much here, you have to push. 21 of the last 24 visits were won from a top 3 starter (15 from the pole, 4 from 2nd).

As a result, if you get just slightly off the racing line, you become a passenger.

“Yeah, super grippy track. It’s incredible this repave how much performance it extracts from the cars and the drivers,” Callum Ilott said.

“Yeah, putting it together, it’s tough. For some reason, it’s very knife edgy, lots of guys making mistakes, myself included. I had a little gravel moment.

“But yeah, it’s an interesting place. Real drivers’ track, and it’s taken it to another level this year.”

Ilott says that if you’re under the limit and comfortable, you’re too slow. That’s why everyone is making these mistakes he feels because it’s just enticing you to go faster and faster, and then suddenly it’s not allowing you to do the same thing as you did the lap before, and you kind of end up going off.

“It’s rewarding to be consistent. Obviously it’s rewarding to the team, as well, to not have to be putting new parts on the car,” he continued.

“But it’s tough. It’s real tough. For some reason, it’s a pain in the ass to put together a lap.”

Monterey used to be an older track surface with tons of tire fall off. Similar to Darlington in sense of low grip, high tire wear. You have to slow down to go fast. Be smooth.

This offseason, the entire track surface has been repaved. It changes the way you drive this track. You can actually attack every corner now.

“Yeah, there’s definitely that here,” Will Power said. “Corners that are pretty high commitment. You don’t have much time to rest. It’s a pretty rhythm track. You’re always in a corner. A bit like a go-kart track. A lot of corners to get right, a lot. Easy to make a mistake. As you’ve seen the times, if you mess up one corner, moves you a lot of positions back.”

Christian Lundgaard agreed.

“The track has been resurfaced so I think everyone will come there with a new mindset of perhaps what we showed up at Road America with, setup wise,” said Lundgaard.

As a result, it’s become a quite a physical track.

 “It’s fast. It’s so fast. It’s incredible how heavy it is, as well,” Kyle Kirkwood said. “Like the steering effort is like astronomical, and I can only imagine with full fuel, and I’m thinking about it — thinking about yesterday, man, when we add a little bit of weight to the car, I don’t think anyone is going to be able to turn around this place.

“Yeah, it’s fast, but it’s a lot of fun. It’s cool to go there and go out and just do a lap because of how fast it is.”

Kirkwood said that there is a realistic concern about drivers retiring from the race early due to how physical this track has now become.

“It’s definitely a concern. If it’s going to be as heavy as it just was there on the alternate tires throughout the race or heavier, I think you’ll see people crash because they just can’t turn the wheel. I think that’s very possible,” he noted.

Graham Rahal said even with cooler temperatures, the race will be the most physical of the season inside the car too.

Will the drivers and teams dial it in for a cleaner race now or will it be one of attrition?

Last year, there was 1 caution for 3 laps.

There’s been 5 combined cautions over the last three races on the season overall. Also, 92.1% of the laps since August were run under green flag conditions too. 72 of 80 laps in Nashville, 79 of 85 for the Gallagher Grand Prix, 238 of 260 at World Wide Technology Raceway and now 104 of 110 in Portland.

Road America was a repave but we saw four cautions for 10 laps.

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Honda vs. Chevy

From 2012-2017, the NTT INDYCAR SERIES was a series dominated by Chevrolet. Prior to 2012 however, Honda could quite easily be regarded as the engine that saved INDYCAR though too. When no one else wanted to jump in, it was Honda who provided engines to literally every team. They were at the time, the sole engine provider of INDYCAR. That takes a lot of time, money and commitment in doing so for as long as they did.

In 2012, they got relief. Chevrolet would be coming back. A new car was coming out as well. While they welcomed the competition, the bow ties just flat out dominated.

They won every manufacturer title in that span.

Chevy won 67 times compared to just 33 triumphs for Honda.

But, once the new car came out in 2018, it was now all Honda. They took the manufacturers crown in 2018, 2019, 2020 and again in 2021.

Also, for the first time since Chevy came back in for 2012 and beyond, Honda in 2018 eclipsed Chevy for most wins in a single season (11-6). A year later, Chevy then won the advantage 9-8, but Honda still won the manufacturer’s championship.

2020 was the debut of the Aeroscreen. It’s flip flopped for wins each season since.

The two were evenly split 7-7 for race wins in 2020.

For 2021, it was 10-6 in favor of Honda.

Last year, it was 11-6 in favor of Chevy.

Now, it’s swung back to Honda, 11-5.

If you take a step back and look at the grander picture of things though, since 2018 the scoreboard for race wins reads: Honda 53, Chevrolet 44. In the three-year span of the Aerokits from 2015 through 2017, it was Chevy 34, Honda 15.

From 2018-2019 with the new car but without the Aeroscreen, it was Honda 19-15.

With the Aeroscreen it’s 28-24, advantage Honda.

For this season in particular, you would have thought that on paper, Honda would easily have cruised to their second straight NTT INDYCAR SERIES manufacturers title this season Instead, heading into the 2023 season finale at Laguna Seca, the gap between them and Chevrolet is only 16.

Despite Honda holding an 11-5 advantage in regards to race victories, Chevy still has a chance to win the trophy among the two engine manufacturers on Sunday afternoon.

This season it’s been a tight battle between the two which will wrap up on Sunday. Honda has 1,362 points compared to 1,346 to Chevy.

How points are scored are based off the top two finishers from the respective camps each race. Bonus points are taken in account which is why despite Honda being the most dominant manufacturer, the gap is actually closer than you’d think it would be.

But, Honda has won 5 off the 6 natural road course races and can clinch the title on Sunday. Chevy however has 3 of the top 4 starters and 5 of the top 8.

Points Battles

Alex Palou has ran away with this year’s championship. Scott Dixon ran away with 2nd. The battle behind them is something to watch.

Newgarden has finished 2nd in each of the last 3 points championships but the best he can do now is 3rd. He’s finished in the top 2 in 4 of the last 6 season finales including 3 straight years too (1st, 2nd, 2nd). Can he remain in 3rd?

He leads Pato O’Ward by 9 and Scott McLaughlin by 22.

McLaughlin will roll off from 2nd, Newgarden in 4th and O’Ward from 10th.

McLaughlin went from 14th in points in 2021 to 4th last year. Can he get at least 4th this year or even the top Penske driver?

O’Ward is 4th right now in points, the best non-Penske and Ganassi driver. He’s finished 4th, 3rd, 7th in points in his first three years. He has 3 podiums in the last 6 races on the season and has finishes of 4th, 2nd, 3rd, 8th, 3rd, 4th on natural road courses this season. What a year it would be for him to be this high in points and this quiet. Also, if he beats the Penske’s, he’d be the top Chevy driver in points too.

Not only this, the race for 5th and 10th is still up for grabs too. Being 5th looks better than 6th or 7th and being 10th is a lot better than 11th or 12th.

Marcus Ericsson went from 17th (2019) to 12th (2020) to 6th (2021) to 6th again last year. Coming into Sunday, he sits…P6 in points. He’s 25 points behind McLaughlin for 5th.

Will Power has 12 top 5 points finishes in the last 13 years. He’s too far back in points in doing so this year as he’s in P7.

Colton Herta is 10th but has alternated season finale wins in going 1st to 11th to 1st to 11th to…1st?He’s finished 7th, 3rd, 5th and 10th in points during his career.

He’s after his former teammate Alexander Rossi who’s worst points finish is 11th as a rookie in 2016. Since then, he finished 7th, 2nd, 3rd 9th, 10th, 9th and currently sits…9th.

It’s all about positioning.

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Spoilers

With a race of nothing much to lose, how does Sunday’s race look? Normally, this could be a Penske vs. Ganassi battle.

Last Sunday in Portland was Ganassi’s 5th straight natural road course and combined with Penske they’ve won all 6 races on these tracks this season. They went 1-2-3 here a year ago too.

Can anyone stop them on Sunday?

Penske and Ganassi have 4 of the top 6 starters. The only two not is Felix Rosenqvist on the pole and Christian Lundgaard in 3rd. 21 of the last 24 visits won from a top 3 starter (15 from the pole, 4 from 2nd).

However, Roseqnvist is 1-for-78 in his career. Lundgaard is 1-for-34.

The thing is, McLaughlin, while starting second, he’s not had the best success while doing so. This season, he’s started in the top six 10 times including 8 on the front row. 7 of his last 8 races have been on the front row at that.

McLaughlin’s finishes from the front row have been 7th (Detroit), 6th (Toronto), 2nd and 5th (Iowa doubleheader), 2nd (Nashville), 5th (Gateway – 10 spot grid penalty), 9th (Portland). Can he pick up the win and end his 13 race winless streak?

Ironically enough, his win this season didn’t come from the front row. It came from 4th in Barber.

For Scott Dixon in 5th, He was 3rd in 2019 but 13th and 12th the last two years. Dixon has also finished 7th, 6th, 4th, 2nd, 1st and 3rd respectively on natural road courses in 2023 too. He’s finished 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 5th, 2nd, 1st, 17th, 4th, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 12th in the last 17 season finales.

Maybe it’s a battle of Josef Newgarden (starts 4th) vs. Alex Palou (starts 6th).

Newgarden has finished 8th, 7th, 2nd here. He was runner-up on another track that was repaved in Road America. He’s also finished in the top 2 in 4 of the last 6 season finales including 3 straight years too (1st, 2nd, 2nd).

Palou won that Road America race and won this race from 11th last year. He was also runner-up in 2021 here.

On natural road courses in 2023, Palou has finished 5th, 1st, 1st, 1st, 7th and 1st.