TRACK HISTORY/TRENDS

• 4 of the last 5 Laguna Seca winners came from the front row with three of which coming from the pole. Alex Palou came from 11th last season.
• 21 of the last 24 visits won from a top 3 starter (15 from the pole, 4 from 2nd)
• 22 of the 24 were won from a top 6 starter in general.
• Laguna went dormant from 2005 through 2018 without INDYCAR before a return in 2019. They didn’t visit in 2020 due to COVID restrictions.
• Used to be an older track surface with tons of tire fall off. Similar to Darlington in sense of low grip, high tire wear. Have to slow down to go fast. Be smooth. Now, the entire track surface has been repaved like Road America was.

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TRACK COMPARISONS/WHO’S BEEN GOOD ON THEM

Over the last 27 races on these tracks (Since the Aeroscreen debut in 2020), Ganassi is the best team with 12 trips to victory lane. Penske is next best with 9. The only other teams to have won is Andretti (4 wins), Arrow McLaren (1 win) and Ed Carpenter Racing (1 win).

They’re also tops among podiums too.

Ganassi has 25, Penske has 23 and Andretti 17 in 78 opportunities. The next best is a steep drop to McLaren with 7. DCR (4), ECR (3) and RLL (3) are the only other teams with podiums.

Among the top drivers?

Alex Palou has the most wins (8). Four drivers are behind him with three wins apiece. Will Power, Josef Newgarden, Scott McLaughlin and Colton Herta are those drivers. Scott Dixon (3) is the only other driver to win multiple times in this span.

Alexander Rossi, Pato O’Ward, Felix Rosenqvist and Rinus VeeKay each have one win.

This season, McLaughlin win at Barber back in late April while Palou won the GMR Grand Prix (Indianapolis), Road America, Mid-Ohio and Portland. Scott Dixon won the Indy Road Course last month .

For podiums, Palou leads Power by two (15-13) with Rossi next best with nine. Dixon has eight while Herta and Newgarden both have six. Pato O’Ward (5), Romain Grosjean (4), McLaughlin (3), VeeKay (3), Graham Rahal (2), Felix Rosenqvist (2) and Marcus Ericsson (2) have multiple podiums.

Simon Pagenaud, Christian Lundgaard and Ryan Hunter-Reay have one.

At Monterey, Andretti won the first two years back (2019, 2021) while Ganassi won last year.

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Favorites

Felix Rosenqvist

2 top 5’s in 3 tries here including 4th last year. He’s also finished 9th, 5th, 20th, 25th, 27th and 2nd on natural road courses in 2023 too. He’s on the pole after finishing runner-up last week.

Alex Palou

He was runner-up in 2021 and won after leading 67 laps last year. On natural road courses in 2023, Palou has finished 5th, 1st, 1st, 1st, 7th and 1st. Road America was repaved and he won there in June. He was 12th, 12th, 3rd in the test and practices and starts 6th.

Josef Newgarden

8th, 7th, 2nd here. On natural road courses this season, he’s also finished 15th, 7th, 2nd, 12th, 25th and 5th respectively. The runner-up was on the Road America repave. He’s finished in the top 2 in 4 of the last 6 season finales including 3 straight years too (1st, 2nd, 2nd). He starts 4th.

Christian Lundgaard

Finished fifth last year starts 3rd this year. At Barber, he qualified sixth and finished there. At Road America he started 7th and finished there too. At Indy, he was on the pole and finished 4th then started 2nd and finished 4th again last month with Mid-Ohio coming from 5th to finish 4th.

Graham Rahal

Was only 18th last year but was fourth the year prior. Rahal qualified in Row 4 for the GMR Grand Prix and overcame being punted on Lap 1 for a top 10 and qualified on the front row in Mid-Ohio and finished seventh and started on the pole and finished runner-up in last month’s Gallagher Grand Prix. He was on the pole last week in Portland too but on the wrong strategy. While he barley missed advancing past the first round, he has a quick car. He was 11th, 7th, 7th in the test and practice sessions and will start 11th after the grid penalties.

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Sleepers

Colton Herta

He led 83 laps in his win from the pole in 2019 and 91 more in another win from the pole in 2022. That’s why I’m overlooking a 18th place start and 11th place finish last year. He won poles in Road America and Mid-Ohio. A bad pit call kept him out of victory lane in Road America and speeding on pit road kept him off the podium in Mid-Ohio. He’s finished 14th, 9th, 5th, 11th, 13th and 14th on like tracks this season. The thing is, with a repave, Herta should have won on the repave in Road America.

For season finales, he’s alternated 1st and 11th place finishes going 1st in 2019 to 11th in 2020 to 1st in 2021 to 11th in 2022 to…1st? He starts 12th after the grid penalties. Palou won last year from 11th.

Romain Grosjean

This track suited him to a 3rd place run in 2021 and 7th last year. On like tracks this season, his finishes have been 2nd, 11th, 25th, 13th, 18th and 27th respectively. He will start 9th on Sunday.

Pato O’Ward

5th and 8th in his two Monterey tries. Was also 4th, 2nd, 3rd, 8th, 3rd and 4th on natural road courses this year too. He may start 10th but was 7th in the test and 2nd on Friday.

Alexander Rossi

6th in 2019 and 10th last year. 8th, 3rd, 10th, 10th, 5th and 20th are his natural road course finishes in 2023. He will only start from 15th but was 6th, 3rd, 4th in practice this weekend.

Rinus VeeKay

While he was 18th in 2021 and 14th last year too. He was also 16th, 13th, 12th, 15th, 11th and 6th on like tracks this season and with momentum now on his side, he was 13th, 10th, 2nd in the three sessions and qualified 8th.

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Fades

Scott McLaughlin

Honda is a perfect 3-for-3 here which is why I’m fading McLaughlin despite going from 12th in 2021 to 6th last year and being on the front row for the 8th time this season. He’s 0-for-7 when starting from the front row previously. So while he won at Barber and was also eighth in Road America and fifth at Mid-Ohio too, I just can’t risk it when he went from 2nd to 9th last week.

Will Power

He’s in the every-other-year trend. 2nd in 2019 to 26th in 2021 to 3rd in 2022 to….He also has a pair of third place finishes this season at Barber and Mid-Ohio but 12th (Indy 1), 6th (Indy 2), 13th (Road America) and 25th (Portland) too. He was the lone Penske driver not to make the Fast Six and has had a messy pair of practice sessions after being quickest in Thursday’s test.

Scott Dixon

He was 3rd in 2019 but 13th and 12th the last two years. Dixon has also finished 7th, 6th, 4th, 2nd, 1st and 3rd respectively on natural road courses in 2023. He’s finished 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 5th, 2nd, 1st, 17th, 4th, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 12th in the last 17 season finales.

Marcus Ericsson

11th, 6th and 9th here in his 3 tries. Ericsson finished 10th, 8th, 6th, 27th, 10th and 7th respectively on natural road courses this season too.

Callum Ilott

He did qualify on the front row last year, but also finished 26th too. A year after being 22nd in 2022. He’s also finished 18th, 18th, 18th, 16th, 17th and 15th respectively on like tracks this season.