Hendrick Motorsports

Lets face it, Sunday is a must-win for Alex Bowman and Chase Elliott. Whomever doesn’t win is facing a must win at Daytona. If neither wins this weekend, then Hendrick Motorsports knows that at least one of them won’t be in the playoffs now too.

Hendrick Motorsports at one point was the toast of the town. They had won 2 of the last 3 Cup Series titles and this past spring, looked like they could get at least 2 cars to the Championship 4 this Fall. Now, they may leave 2 cars home from the playoffs.

Think about that.

They entered having scored finishes of P5-P33-P35-P36 last Monday in Michigan which his why these finishes are nice, but it doesn’t mean much.

HMS won 3 of the first 7 races and 4 of the opening 9. They’ve won 2 of the last 14.

Bowman has tumbled from a points lead to not having a top 10 finish since the spring Richmond race (13 races ago) entering this weekend. Granted, penalties and missing three races contributed to that too.

Elliott missed six races to injury and one to suspension.

William Byron had 3 top 5 finishes in the first 5 races, then a stretch of six straight top eight finishes. Since that? 1 top 5 over the last 10.

Kyle Larson has 12 top 10 finishes, 10 of which in the top 5. His problem is, when he’s not in the top 5, he’s struggling. He also has 10 finishes of 18th or worse too including 3 of his last 6 on the season being 19th or worse at that.

Can HMS turn this ship around?

They won 10 Brickyard 400’s but 0-for-3 now on the road course.

It’s to Watkins Glen next to where they have won the last four.

Then it’s to Daytona to where they may once again struggle.

They’re tied with the Wood Brothers for most Daytona wins in the NASCAR Cup Series. Each have 15. Both have also won those 15 races with 7 different drivers. However, HMS’ once dominance prowess has since cooled. They won 11 races between 1995 and 2015. In fact, 7 of those 11 occurred from July 2004 and July 2015. They’ve won this race 6 times.

Since 2016 though, they have just one win. What’s bizarre is, it’s not like they’ve not shown up down here without speed. They’ve arguably had the fastest cars off the truck. It’s just that they’ve not had race day speed to correlate with race day handling. Hendrick Motorsports teammates Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott shared the front row of this race last year. It’s was actually the 4th straight HMS pole at Daytona and 12th in the last 16 tries on the high banked 2.5-mile Florida superspeedway. The only 4 poles they didn’t win was Greg Biffle (July 2016), Joey Logano (July 2019), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (February 2020) and Kevin Harvick (Aug. 2020).

However, 2 of the 4 weren’t won on speed. Logano’s pole in 2019 was on points. Same for Harvick in 2020 as we didn’t qualify that year.

Still, HMS failed to win with having just 1 win in the last 15 Daytona races now and that’s counting February when they had another front row sweep. Elliott led the most laps (31) last year but none of them even scored a top 10.

Elliott was runner-up in the 2019 Coke Zero Sugar 400, runner-up in the 2020 Daytona 500, 8th in the 2021 ‘400 and 10th in the 2021 Daytona 500. While he won two superspeedway races last year, he was 38th, 12th and 13th this year.

Larson has never won a superspeedway race and has just 1 top 5 in 39 starts on them at that. He was 18th, 31st, 33rd and 36th on them this season.

Bowman is always quick on superspeedways but he has just one top five finish in his career at Daytona. That was back in February’s Daytona 500. He was 14th, 13th and 26th in the other three superspeedway races.

William Byron is the only one I’d consider looking at. He has two top two finishes in his last five Coke Zero Sugar 400 starts. His Daytona 500 starts? 23rd, 21st, 40th, 26th, 38th and 34th respectively. He’s better here in the summer and won this past July in Atlanta. He was also seventh in Talladega.

Which is why Watkins Glen is important.

Elliott’s two-year Watkins Glen win streak came to an end in 2021. Kyle Larson has since picked up his own (2021-2022). Can he pull the hat trick on Sunday?

The last driver to win three straight here was Jeff Gordon (1997-1999). Mark Martin is the only other driver to accomplish that feat as he did so in 1993, 1994 and 1995.

Tony Stewart (2004-2005) and Marcus Ambrose (2011-2012) are the only other two outside of Elliott, Larson, Gordon and Martin to win two straight here. Can Larson join Gordon and Martin in a three peat or does he join Elliott, Stewart and Ambrose two straight winners?

Larson’s last four Watkins Glen finishes are sixth, eighth, first and first respectively. He also has finished 14th, eighth, fourth and 8th respectively on road courses in 2023.

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Can Ford Win 4 Straight?

Coming into Richmond, Ford has 2 wins in the first 21 races to the season. They’ve now won three races in-a-row and have done so across three different forms of race tracks at that.

A short track (Richmond), a speed track (Michigan) and now a Road Course (Indianapolis). Can they win again?

Ford had been abysmal on road course tracks in 2023. They led four laps in COTA, one in Sonoma, none in Chicago, but now 54 at Indy. Their last win on a road course entering was Charlotte ROVAL in 2018 and their last win at Watkins Glen came back in 2015 as that’s their lone since in the last nine tries here.

That’s why coming into Indy, these next two races were more than likely going to come down to Chevrolet vs. Toyota.

Chevrolet won the final six road course races in 2021. They went 5-for-6 on them last year. They’ve also won four straight here.

However, Chevrolet is 1-for-4 on the season on the road courses (4 counting Indy) with Toyota winning two of the races and three of the last five (counting Indy in the 5).

The thing is, Toyota’s didn’t fare to well here a year ago here. They didn’t really anywhere. They looked improved this season, but are lacking consistency though too.

So who wins out?

Chevy led 29 of 75 laps in COTA, 25 of 110 in Sonoma, 32 of 78 in Chicago and 7 at Indy. Toyota’s by comparison led 42 of 75 in COTA, 84 of 110 in Sonoma, 46 of 78 in Chicago and 19 in Indy. So, who has the leg up between them?

Is Toyota all the way back?

Hendrick Motorsports has won the last 4 races at Watkins Glen. When counting Joe Gibbs Racing, them and HMS have combined to win each of the last 6 WGI races as well as 7 of the last 9 with 5 different drivers.

HMS has won four straight but are 1-for-10 on road courses with the Next Gen. They were 9-for-11 prior with the old car.

Kyle Larson finished 29-15-3-35-1-35 on them last year. On those same tracks in 2021, he went 2-1-16-3-1-1. This year, he’s 14-8-4-8.

Chase Elliott was 4-8-2-16-4-20 a year ago. The year prior, he was 1-2-1-4-2-12. This year, he’s 5-3-2. He missed COTA due to injury.

They’re eyeing between them their fifth straight win here. However, does Toyota go through maybe an open door?

Martin Truex Jr. had five straight Top-10 finishes in Watkins Glen including four of which in the top three, come to an end with a 23rd place run last year. However, that’s all changed this season with a Sonoma win. In saying that, he was also only 17th (COTA), 32nd (Chicago) and 7th (Indianapolis) too. His other 5 road races run in 2022, he finished seventh, 26th, 13th, 21st and 17th.

Denny Hamlin had four top four finishes in his last six Watkins Glen starts but on road courses in 2022, 18th, 31st, 17th, 14th, 20th and 13th respectively. He does have two poles on these tracks in 2023, but his finishes read 16th, 36th, 11th and 19th respectively.

Ty Gibbs has a pair of ninth place finishes in four road races run this season. However, he was 26th last year here though too.

Tyler Reddick won at both Road America and Indy last year and COTA this year. However, he’s only finished 33rd, 28th and 4th on the other three road courses this season to go along with seventh here a year ago too.

Bubba Wallace finished 37th, 17th, 31st and 18th on road courses this season and being 35th here last year puts him low on my list of winners this weekend.

Maybe it’s Trackhouse Racing or RCR sliding through instead. Combined, they’ve won 5 of the 10 road races with Trackhouse taking 3 wins from 3 different drivers and RCR a pair of wins last year with Tyler Reddick.

How can they fare on Sunday?

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Clean Race?

Indy was miraculously clean last week with just 1 caution for 3 laps. We saw 77 straight laps in the end to the checkered. How will Watkins Glen look on Sunday?

It’s been clean in this stage era.

Since 2017, there’s been 3, 4, 4, 4, 5 cautions in this race. That’s 20 combined cautions with 10 of those being for stage breaks.

Watkins Glen has walls where Indy really doesn’t in places that matter so maybe that also changes things.

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Strategy

As the regular season dwindles down, I’m watching strategy plays on Sunday. Without cautions for stage breaks and several drivers needing wins, how do these teams treat Sunday’s race? You can’t just play follow the leader as some teams are going to have to swing for the fences. By doing, it could make this race look strung out.

Last year and before, it was becoming the norm for teams to elect to pit right before the stage would end to give up points for track position. They don’t have that luxury anymore. They automatically knew when two cautions would fly so would plan accordingly. It took the strategy aspect out of these races.

I now like that strategy plays are back in the hands of the teams again and that these races won’t carry on forever. You now don’t know when cautions are coming and can open up when to pit and when not to do so.

So for those needing a win, you have to be aggressive and hope for a caution to save the day.

What if that caution doesn’t come?

Last year was the first time since 2016 that we had a caution inside of 20 to go. The first two stages last year went caution free. Since 2017, we’ve had just five natural cautions here.

Which sets up strategy plays for sure then.

Do teams short pit or long pit? Do you do the overcut or undercut? Can you pit with clean air in front of you entering and in front of you exiting. In and out laps are key too.

Strategy is open again and I love it.

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Points Race

Michael McDowell’s win completely changed the playoff standings again. Now, Bubba Wallace who once looked safe, no longer does. He’s +28. Daniel Suarez made up 29 points in Michigan and scored 51 points (2nd most at Indy), but due to McDowell winning, falls to -28. He can make up that gap since he was fifth here last year and third at Indy.

It’s really only down to Wallace (+28) vs. Suarez (-28) for that final wildcard spot on points anyways.

Wallace has finished 37th, 17th, 31st and 18th on road courses this season and being 35th here last year puts him low on my list of winners this weekend. Suarez won in Sonoma last year, was fifth here and coming off of a pole and third place run at Indy last Sunday.

Wallace has accumulated 22 stage points in the opening stage (7th, 2nd,2nd, No points) in the last four races and 16 stage points in Stage 2 (9th, 4th, 4th, no points). It’s just no stage points and being 18th in Indy while Suarez has totaled 31 stage points over the last two races and two straight top sixes has him in a position to make up some of that gap. He erased 29 points in Michigan so there’s no reason he can’t do so at Watkins Glen.

Below them, lets face it, Sunday is a must-win.

Alex Bowman and Chase Elliott are 2 key drivers to watch here. Whomever doesn’t win is facing a must win at Daytona. If neither wins this weekend, then Hendrick Motorsports knows that at least one of them won’t be in the playoffs now too. Both are too far out to make the playoffs on points as they each are -80.

Even Ty Gibbs (-49) is likely in a must-win too. He’s accumulated 15 stage points since Pocono which is why despite 1 top 10 finish in that span, he does have those and four top 15’s too.

AJ Allmendinger fell from -17 after Pocono to now -87. He has 9 stage points total in this span and finishes of 19th 17th, 27th, 26th, 26th over the last 5 races. Allmendinger has the capability to win again here. He was runner-up last year and won in 2014. He also has three runner-up finishes (2018, 2021, 2022) in his last four NXS starts here too. My only concern is that he lacked speed in Indy and it’s tough to just gain it one week later. Allmendinger has only scored 60 points on road races this season good enough for 19th. It’s an all-in for him though.

Austin Cindric (-105) is a road racing ace and has two straight Top-3 finishes in the Xfinity Series here too including a 2019 win. I’m wary though about being 15th at Indy and not having a single Top-5 finish all season too.