TRACK: Richmond Raceway (.75 mile oval). DISTANCE: 400 Laps — STAGE 1: 70 Laps, STAGE 2: 160 Laps, FINAL STAGE: 170 Laps (300 Miles)

TRACK HISTORY/TRENDS

This will be the 134th race of the history of NASCAR and the Cup Series at Richmond (VA) Raceway but this year, both races will take place under daytime conditions again instead of at night, making both races one in the same.

• The Toyota’s are the heavy favorites with them sweeping the action at Richmond in 2018 and 2019 to go along with 9 trips to victory lane in the last 15 starts on the .75-mile D-Shaped Virginia oval including the spring 2022. JGR went 1-2-3-4 across the finish line in Sept. 2019 as their top feat. They had some of the fastest race cars here this past April too and also have 4 of the top 7 starters on Sunday.
• Richmond has been a championship precursor lately. 3 of the 4 Championship 4 drivers were in the top 6 last Fall. All 4 of them the year prior were in the top 6 in the 2021 Fall race and half were in the top five in the 2021 spring race. In 2020, 3 of the 4 were in the top five in the Fall race (only race of 2020 at Richmond). For 2019, they went 1-2-3-7 in the Fall race and 1-4-5-8 in the spring. In 2018, they went 1-2-3-14 in the Fall race and 1-4-5-14 in the spring. This past spring, the Championship 4 from last year went 3-4-7. Chase Elliott missed the race, but his car went P2.
• It’s also a track that doesn’t lend a helping hand to sleeper values. That’s because Richmond doesn’t typically allow for smaller teams to prevail at. Just look at the recent winners. Joe Gibbs Racing, Team Penske, Hendrick Motorsports and Stewart-Haas Racing have won each of the last 10 including 14 of the last 15 overall.
• In regards to the Ford camp, they’ve struggled to lead laps on short tracks this season. They led 37 of 317 laps in Phoenix this spring, just one lap here (out of 400) this past April, eight of 400 in Dover and 16 of 301 in Loudon.
• Long shots and streaks of different winners are nothing new at the famous Richmond Raceway, and this weekend the 0.75-mile track is riding a streak of six different NASCAR Cup Series winners in the last six races – 2020 Brad Keselowski, 2021 Alex Bowman, 2021 Martin Truex Jr., 2022 Denny Hamlin, 2022 Kevin Harvick and 2023 Kyle Larson. So, who will continue to the streak of different winners this weekend?

Live In Race Betting Trends To Watch
• Strategy is key here and Denny Hamlin scored no stage points in his 2022 spring race win while Kevin Harvick had no points in Stage 1 and was 4th in the second stage of this race last year. 3 times since 2018 has someone swept both stages here but didn’t win.

Stage 1 finishes by eventual race winner: 10th, 2nd, 6th, no points, 3rd, 1st, 4th, 7th, 8th, no points, no points, 2nd.

Stage 2 finishes by eventual race winner: 10th, 6th, 6th, no points, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 4th, 3rd, no points, 4th and 8th.

Also, starting position doesn’t typically matter here as much as it does in other places. Drivers say in qualifying, you attack this track for 2 laps but in the race, you have to baby the tires and take it easy. Push too hard in race mode, you fall backwards due to tire wear. It’s why 3 of the last 5 winners started outside of the top 10 including both Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick from 13th just last year and Alex Bowman from 24th the spring prior. Kyle Larson won from ninth this spring.

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TRACK COMPARISONS

Flat like Phoenix and Loudon. You can be aggressive with a 2 tire pit strategy in the final stage that might make it interesting as long as everyone doesn’t do the same thing. Day race though will be more abrasive on tires.

Favorites

Martin Truex Jr. (+450)

He has to be one of the favorites, right? That’s why he dropped from +1100 this spring to where he is now. That’s oaky though. Truex has eight Top-5 finishes at Richmond in his last 10 tries including four Top-2’s in his last eight at that. He was fourth in the 2022 spring race after leading 80 laps and scoring a stage win while being seventh last summer. He had the race essentially won this spring but a late race caution flew ending any shot of doing so. That’s because he had no tires left to change which dropped him from first to 11th in the end. Truex did end up being third in Martinsville and won Dover and Loudon. He has six Top-5 finishes in the last eight weeks too and starts 10th.

Kyle Larson (+550)

He has just two combined top five finishes in his last nine Richmond starts. Both were in the last two spring races which includes a fifth place run in 2022 and a win after leading 93 laps this year. He led a ton of laps in Phoenix and also won at Martinsville to give him short track finishes of fourth (Phoenix), first (Richmond), first (Martinsville), 32nd (Dover) and third (Loudon) respectively. He rolls off 14th.

Denny Hamlin (+600)

He was runner-up in both races in 2021 including leading 207 laps in the spring and 197 more circuits in the Fall. Hamlin won the 2022 spring race and fourth in the summer to tally 11 Top-6 finishes in his last 14 Richmond starts. The only reason that it’s not 12-for-14 is the fact that he had troubles on pit lane this spring. Hamlin won the second stage and led 71 laps, but that final penalty was a dagger. He was fourth in Martinsville, fifth at Dover and seventh in Loudon on his last three finishes on tracks 1-mile in length or shorter. He enters coming off of a win in Pocono too.

Kevin Harvick (+700)

Worth a look on him this week. He was runner-up and fifth respectively in the last two spring races and won last summer for his ninth Top-8 result in his last 10 Richmond tries. He also has 20 consecutive Top-10 finishes at Phoenix too including what should have been a win this spring and that track is the most similar to Richmond. Harvick enters having scored two straight fourth place finishes on the season too. He starts eighth.

Christopher Bell (+700)

Sure he starts 29th. However, he was fourth and third respectively in 2021, sixth in the 2022 spring race after leading 63 laps last year after scoring a second-place finish in the second stage. Then, Bell was a runner-up last summer in the return trip. He led 26 laps and finished fourth this past April and has finishes on short tracks this season of sixth, fourth, 16th, sixth and 29th respectively. If you factor in five Xfinity Series starts too, Bell has nine Top-6 finishes in 11 tries.

Bell qualified in the top five at Phoenix and was sixth in the end too. The thing is, he’s also not had a Top-5 finish in each of the last 13 races though either so I’m wary. Still, a pole in Loudon was negated by problems on pit road. He’s had the speed, they’ve not been executing. Eventually, they will. Maybe that comes this weekend.

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Sleepers

Chase Elliott (+1600)

He’s 0-for-14 here, but does have 3 top 5 finishes in his last 5 starts too. He needs a win and starts fourth. He finished 5th here in his last time out and this car was runner-up with Josh Berry back in April.

Ty Gibbs (+2800)

Ninth in the spring race lands him here. So does a pair of Top-10 finishes in his last four starts on the season including a fifth place result last Sunday in Pocono. He ran this race last year as well as winning last spring’s Xfinity Series race after leading 114 laps in the process. He starts 7th.

Brad Keselowski (+3000)

A past winner here, was 10th in the spring and eighth in Dover. He has two Top-6 finishes in the last three weeks. He’ll roll off from 13th.

Ryan Preece (+10000)

Won the pole at Martinsville, was 12th in Phoenix, 18th here, 17th in Dover and the only reason he didn’t finish better than 15th in Martinsville was an issue on pit road cost him track position. He’ll start 11th on Sunday.

Chase Briscoe (+10000)

Not much past stats to go off of but he won Phoenix last year and was fourth there last November there and seventh this spring. SHR seems to be at their best on short tracks this season with Briscoe being seventh (Phoenix), 12th (Richmond), fifth (Martinsville), 30th (Dover) and 10th at Loudon respectively. NASCAR has Briscoe ranked third (114 points) for most points accumulated on short tracks this season too.

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Who To Fade?

Kyle Busch (+800)

He had nine straight top nine results including a top two in nearly half of his last 14 Richmond starts. Busch is also on the front row too. However, he says short tracks are their worst this year. He’s right. He’s finished 8th (Phoenix), 14th (here), 32nd (Bristol Dirt), 21st (Martinsville), 21st (Dover) and 36th (Loudon) on tracks 1-mile in length or shorter this season.

William Byron (+900)

He used strategy and strategy only to lead 122 laps in his only Top-5 in 10 Richmond starts last spring. Again, he didn’t have a top five car that day in terms of speed and chances to win. This past spring, he did. He led a race-high 117 laps and finished first and third in the two stages before being spun by Christopher Bell on a late race restart. Prior to the late caution, he was going to finish second. After, he was going to win. Then came Bell’s bumper…Byron won Phoenix and was fourth in Dover. My only concern is he has one Top-5 finish over the last seven weeks too. Which is also why he dropped from +400 this spring to +900 now. He’s also only had one Top-5 finish in 12 Richmond starts and that’s including his pair of Xfinity Series starts. He’s led 117 or more laps in each of the last two spring races but has never led a lap here in the return trip.

Team Penske

They finished P7-P26-P28 this spring. They start P23-P25-P29 on Sunday.

Not one of Ryan Blaney’s (+2200) better tracks. He’s never had a Top-5 here in 14 Richmond starts. Austin Cindric (+30000) was 20th and 12th as a rookie and 28th this past April while Joey Logano (+1200) was 17th and 6th himself last year and seventh in the spring which leads me more towards a Top-5 finish (+150) rather than an outright win. He has five Top-7 results in his last six Richmond tries, nine in the last 12 at that and was runner-up in Loudon and Martinsville too. I just don’t like +1200 to win.

23XI Racing

Sure they have 2 of the top 5 starting spots. However, qualifying hasn’t mattered much here lately either.

Reddick has never led a lap in 11 combined NASCAR starts here between the Xfinity Series and Cup Series action. Wallace has one combined lap led in 16 tries himself. His best finish is 13th.

Trackhouse Racing

Ross Chastain (+2000)

As temping as it may be to snag him for these odds, don’t. He was seventh in the 2021 Fall race and third in both stages last spring. However, he was only 19th and 18th respectively at the finish last year too. He made up for it in being third this past spring. He was also runner-up in Dover. The only problem is, he has one Top-5 finish in the last nine races as his last four are 22nd, 35th, 23rd and 13th.

Daniel Suarez (+6500)

His best short track finish this season is 17th in Martinsville. He was 23rd here this past spring.