TRACK: New Hampshire Motor Speedway (1.058-oval). DISTANCE: 301 Laps — STAGE 1: 75 Laps, STAGE 2: 110 Laps, FINAL STAGE: 116 Laps, MILES (318.458 Miles)

TRACK HISTORY/TRENDS

• Chevrolet has one win in its last 16 New Hampshire starts. Last Chevy win (2016).
• Last Hendrick win at Loudon (2012).
• Starting position hasn’t mattered as much at New Hampshire like it has elsewhere. 6 of the last 10 New Hampshire winners have come from a starting spot outside of the top 12 in fact (Christopher Bell was 5th last year).
  • 3 of the last 5 winners have been 14th or worse at the start.
• We’ve had late race battles for the win in 4 of the last 5 years.
• 0 overtimes in the last 11 races at Loudon.
• 12 of the last 15 New Hampshire winners were Cup champions in the sport. Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell and Aric Almiorla are the lone exceptions.
• 10 of the last 12 races saw the driver that led the most laps fail to win in the end.
• 6 of the last 10 drivers to lead the most laps failed to even score a top 5.
• We’ve had 7 races run in the stage era, the eventual winner scored stage points in both stages in all 6 of the 7 races. Aric Almirola didn’t score stage points in Stage 1 in July 2021. Christopher Bell was 6th and 9th last year.
• Just 2 of the 7 races saw the eventual winner even finish in the top five in stage 1.
• 5 of the 7 races saw the eventual winner finish in the top 5 in the 2nd stage including two wins and a second-place effort.
• This is the 6th straight year to where Loudon has hosted just 1 race.
• All 4 drivers who’ve made the Championship 4 from 2018, 2019 and 2020 have all finished in the top 10 in Loudon. In 2021, it was 2 of 4. That’s partially because Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. were collected in that opening lap crash in the rain. Last year, it was 3 of the 4 all in the top 8 (1st – Bell, 2nd – Elliott, 6th – Chastain, 24th – Logano).
• In 2020, Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano and Chase Elliott combined to lead 285 of the 301 laps. They finished 1-2-4-9.
• In 2019, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch combined to lead 272 of the 301 laps. They finished 1-2-6-8.
• In 2018, Harvick, Busch, Truex Jr. and Joey Logano combined to lead 131 of 301 laps. They finished 1-2-4-9.

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TRACK COMPARISONS

Flat track with long straightaways. Can pass on the inside lane but the high lane around the track isn’t ideal. Track position key here. Most similar to Martinsville, Richmond, Gateway and Phoenix.

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Favorites

Joe Gibbs Racing

This could be their week again to shine again. They’ve finished runner-up in four of the last five Loudon tries and six times in the last nine New Hampshire races overall. The only three that they didn’t finish second in? They won, including just last year. I like a pair of drivers from this camp.

Denny Hamlin (+700) has 11 straight Top-15 finishes on this track including a runner-up in two of the last four years at that. He won in 2017. He was fourth (Martinsville) and second (Gateway) in comparable tracks as well as being fifth in Dover this May.

Martin Truex Jr. (+650) had five Top-10 finishes in his first seven New Hampshire starts. Then, he had two over his next 13 tries there. But, over the last 10, he’s had eight results in the Top-10 again including six of the last seven in the top seven at that. He started on the pole, swept both stages and led a race-high 172 laps last year. He was third in Martinsville and fifth at Gateway to go along with a win at Dover this year too.

The thing is, they’re both also reeling entering.

Truex, after scoring four straight Top-5 finishes, has come home 32nd and 29th the last two weeks.

Hamlin has finished 11th or worse in 5 of his last 7 starts on the season including being 11th and 14th the last two races.

Can they just turn it around all at once?

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Sleepers

Stewart Haas-Racing

This is usually their get right race. Kevin Harvick (+900) got right in this race in 2019 after entering it winless on the year. He was fifth at both Phoenix and Richmond this year. Harvick has also won three of the last eight Loudon races including two of the last five at that. The three that he didn’t win, he was fifth, sixth and fifth respectively with leading the most laps in his sixth place effort in 2021.

Aric Almirola (+2200) did the same in 2021 for his 6th top 11 on this track since 2013. He was third in 2018, 11th in 2019, seventh in 2020 and that win two years ago. He may have been only 31st last year, but he did qualify seventh and finished sixth this spring in Martinsville.

Chase Briscoe (+7000) was 15th last year, but seventh this year at Phoenix and fifth in Martinsville while Ryan Preece (+5500) is always a threat at his home track and has had his best races on short tracks this season.

Kyle Busch (+900)

Kyle Busch is always good on this track and taking over in a car that Tyler Reddick was 10th, 13th and 21st in his three Cup Loudon starts. Busch dominated Gateway last month too.

Brad Keselowski (+2200)

A former winner who was seventh a year ago and has a pair of Top-10 finishes in his last three starts on the short track package.

Bubba Wallace (+2800)

Third a year ago and in the preferred power (Toyota) this weekend again. He had a car capable of a top five finish in Gateway too. Wallace’s last five finishes are 30th, 17th, 15th, 31st and 25th though too.

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Who To Fade?

Christopher Bell (+500)

This is a fade for me. I don’t think this number at all. While he was runner-up in 2021 and won last year, this year, he was sixth (Phoenix), fourth (Richmond), 16th (Martinsville) and 11th (Gateway). He’s not had a Top-5 finish since Easter in Bristol (12 races) and is 18th and 23rd in the last two weeks entering.

Team Penske

Despite a struggle last year (13-18-24), they’ve been solid on like tracks this year to give me reason of optimism. In Gateway, they were 3-6-13. In Martinsville, they were 2-7-33. At Phoenix, 2-11-29.

Ryan Blaney (+1500) was ninth in 2017, seventh in 2018, fourth in 2019 but 20th in 2020 despite having a decent car that day. He was fifth in 2021 and 18th last year.

Joey Logano (+1600) was fourth in two of the last three years for his five top 10’s in his last six tries there. He was seventh in Richmond and runner-up at Martinsville.

However, in terms of an outright win, I like this group more for Top-10 bets instead. Ford has won just two races all season.

Hendrick Motorsports

Their last win at Loudon came back in 2012. In 2021, they finished 7-9-18-21. Last year was 2-11-14-35. However, they’ve been so good on like tracks this year.

In Phoenix, they went 1-4-9-10. In Richmond it was 1-2-8-24. At Martinsville, 1-10-11-23. Gateway they struggled at 4-8-21-26.

So which wins out?

Kyle Larson (+1000) does have four Top-10s in his last seven tries including two runner-up’s but also on like tracks in 2023 he was fourth, first, first and fourth respectively. He also has four Top-8 finishes in the last five weeks too.

Chase Elliott (+1100) has just two top fives in nine starts there, but one was a runner-up last season. He has three top five finishes in the last four weeks. However, he missed Phoenix, Richmond and Gateway this year and in those races, the 9 car struggled. It took some strategy to get them towards the front.

William Byron (+1200) has no top 10’s in five tries but won Phoenix, had a car to win Richmond, was 23rd in Martinsville and eighth in Gateway. He was eight top eight finishes in the last 10 races including a win last Sunday. However, does he win two straight though? May be a safer play for a Top-10 prop instead.

Alex Bowman (+4500) has just one top 10 (9th in 2021) in the same five starts as Byron. On like tracks this season, he was ninth, eighth, 11th and 26th respectively. He had six Top-10 finishes in the first seven races of the season. In the last nine? None.

Tyler Reddick (+1800)

These just aren’t his better tracks. While Phoenix he’s been okay at, in his best Loudon finish is 10th (once). He was 16th in Richmond, 22nd in Martinsville and 35th in Gateway. Reddick’s last five finishes have been 35th, 33rd, 30th, 28th and 27th.

Ross Chastain (+1800)

He was eighth last year but also 24th (Phoenix), third (Richmond), 13th (Martinsville) and just 22nd (Gateway) on like tracks this year.

Daniel Suarez (+3500)

He was ninth last year but 22nd (Phoenix), 23rd (Richmond), 17th (Martinsville) and seventh (Gateway) this year.

Ty Gibbs (+5000)

Gibbs has finished 13th or worse in 10 of the last 11 races on the season.