TRACK: Sonoma Raceway (1.99 mile, 12 turn road course). DISTANCE: 110 Laps — STAGE 1: 25 Laps, STAGE 2: 30 Laps, FINAL STAGE: 50 Laps, MILES (218.9 Miles)

TRACK HISTORY/TRENDS

• Toyota has won 2 of the last 4 races with Martin Truex Jr. including 3 of the last 7 visits overall.
• Ford has 2 wins in the last 19 Sonoma race.
• Truex Jr. has led the most laps in 3 of the last 5 years.
• Between JGR, or an affiliate as well as SHR, they’ve combined to win five of the last seven races in Sonoma.
• They’ll go back to the 1.99-mile layout again this year. The 2021 race was the 11th race on the 2.52 mile layout, including 2nd straight, but the last before 2019 was 1997. 1998 through 2018 was run on this current layout.
• Last pole winner other than Kyle Larson last year to win the race was Jeff Gordon in 2004.
• Just three times in the last 11 years has the winner come from a top five starting spot.
• Due to being able to pit and not lose a lap, the top drivers used to typically give up stage points to pit just before the ending of that segment for track position after. Just three times in the four-year stage era at Sonoma has the eventual race winner placed inside of the top 10 in a stage. One was Martin Truex Jr. finishing seventh in the second stage of 2019, another with Larson in 2021 sweeping both stages and the last was Daniel Suarez last year with finishing fourth in the second stage. Now though, we don’t stop for stages. Tyler Reddick still gave up stage points in Stage 1 at COTA earlier this year but didn’t in the second stage taking the win in that as well as the race itself.
• Last year, none of the road course races saw a driver that had won finish in the points in Stage 1. Same for this year too.
• In Stage 2, they finished: 8th (COTA), 4th (Sonoma), 10th (Road America), no points (Indy) and 8th (Watkins Glen), no points (ROVAL). Reddick won Stage 2 at COTA this year.
• Last year, starting spots on road courses didn’t matter. The starting spots of the eventual winners were: 16th (COTA), 8th (Sonoma), 4th (Road America), 1st (Indy), 2nd (Watkins Glen) and 8th (Charlotte ROVAL). Reddick started on the pole in his COTA win earlier this year.

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TRACK COMPARISONS

Slower more technical road course on the schedule. More run off space than most other places to where if you get off track, more than likely you’re getting into the sand and not a wall. The final 2 corners and Turn 2 the best passing spots. That makes this a tough comparison to anywhere else on the schedule.

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Favorites

Tyler Reddick (+450)

He just won at COTA this spring to go along with a pair of wins (Road America, Indy) a year ago too. Last year, he was also fifth (COTA), seventh (Watkins Glen) and eighth (Charlotte ROVAL) on road courses. While he was only 35th here a year ago, that doesn’t scare me. He has four Top-10 finishes in the last six points paying races.

Chase Elliott (+550)

He’s a road course ace, however, he’s 0-for-6 at Sonoma though. Despite that, Elliott does have four Top-8 results in his last five Sonoma tries too including a runner-up in 2021. With needing a win, why not here?

William Byron (+850)

25th, 19th, 35th and ninth were his four Sonoma finishes. However, most of those he went for stage points rather than a win. That’s why despite not having a Top-5 result in any of the six road course races last season with a best result of ninth, he doesn’t scare me. He was fifth in COTA this past spring and enters this weekend having scored a Top-8 finish in six straight races now.

Kyle Busch (+900)

He’s a two-time Sonoma winner and has scored five Top-5 finishes in his last seven wine country starts. He was also runner-up in COTA back in March. This car won twice on road courses as year ago as well. Busch has four Top-7 finishes in the last six races too including a pair of wins (Talladega, Gateway) in the span as well. He’s already equaled the amount of wins in 15 races with RCR as he did in his final 108 starts with Joe Gibbs Racing.

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Sleepers

Austin Cindric (+2000)

He finished eighth, fifth, seventh, second, 13th and 21st on road courses in 2022. He was sixth in COTA this past March too.

Chris Buescher (+2200)

His last five road course race finishes of last season read: second (Sonoma), sixth (Road America), 10th (Indianapolis), ninth (Watkins Glen) and sixth (Charlotte ROVAL). He was eighth in COTA this past March. The RFK Racing driver has been vastly improved this time around as well.

Alex Bowman (+2800)

He’s been ninth in two of his last four Sonoma starts and third in COTA this spring.

Ryan Blaney (+3500)

He was third in this race in 2019, ninth in 2017, 10th in 2021 and sixth last year. Blaney also has six Top-10 finishes in the last seven races on the season as well. Getting the current points leader for these odds is a must.

Michael McDowell (+4500)

A road racer by nature had four Top-10 on them last season including a third in Sonoma and sixth in Watkins Glen. He was 12th in COTA. McDowell enters with some much needed momentum with a ninth place finish last Sunday.

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Who To Fade?

Kyle Larson (+450)

He’s won three of the last four stages at Sonoma including a 2021 win. He was however 15th here last year and 14th in COTA back in March too. He does have five straight Sonoma poles though. But, four of his last six finishes on the season have been 20th or worse including three of the four sub 30th place efforts. They’ve rolled off the truck terrible in the last two races.

Trackhouse Racing

Everything says take them. They’ve won 2 of the 6 road course races last year including this very one. Daniel Suarez (+1600) led every lap of the first stage in COTA a year ago while Ross Chastain (+900) dominated the final stage en route to his first career win. Also a year ago, Suarez won in Sonoma, was also fifth in Road America, lined up fifth on the final restart in Indy and finished fifth in Watkins Glen. Chastain also was seventh in Sonoma and fourth in Road America. He crossed the finish line second at Indy before his penalty was levied and only 21st in Watkins Glen. They finished fourth (Chastain) and 27th (Suarez) in COTA this year. However, most of that was last year. Chastain has slipped backwards as of late in going from the points lead to sixth after three straight finishes of 22nd or worse. Suarez has just two Top-10 finishes in his last 12 starts.

AJ Allmendinger (+1600)

12 of his 17 career Cup and/or Xfinity Series wins came on road courses. He also won Indy last in 2021, was in the Top-3 on the final lap in COTA last year, was in the Top-10 late in the race at Sonoma a year ago, finished ninth in Road America, seventh at Indy again last July and runner-up at Watkins Glen. However, that’s the past. He was 34th in COTA this year and hasn’t finished better than 14th since his sixth place finish in the season opening Daytona 500.

Kevin Harvick (+2500)

He’s a past winner to go along with having six Top-6 Sonoma finishes in his last seven tries. The thing that scares me is, Ford’s were slow in COTA and Harvick has just one finish better than ninth in his last eight races on the season.

Christopher Bell (+2500)

Won the ROVAL last October and eighth in Watkins Glen gives him a pair of top 10’s in his last three road course starts. He was quick in COTA and didn’t get the finish based off his speed. He was only 24th and 27th however in his pair of Sonoma starts too though too and enters having finishes of 36th, 14th, 24th and 11th respectively the last four weeks.

Joey Logano (+3500)

He may have been fourth in 2021 but his previous three finishes were 12th, 19th and 23rd respectively. He only scored a Top-10 twice in six road courses last year being sixth in Indy and third in Watkins Glen too. Logano was 28th in COTA.

Martin Truex Jr. (+4000)

He’s led the most laps in three of the last five years in Sonoma. He’s won this race three times including three straight Top-3 finishes overall. However, he was only 26th last year (0 laps led) and 17th in COTA. Last year, he finished seventh, 26th, 13th, 21st, 23rd and 17th in the six races on road courses. With Toyota’s not having much of a solution yet, despite four Top-8 finishes in the last five races including, three of which in the Top-5, I’m fading him.

Denny Hamlin (+4000)

Coming into last year, Hamlin had five straight Top-10’s including three of which being in the Top-5. He had just one Top-5 and two total Top-10’s in his previous 10 Sonoma starts before that. He’s struggled to race this Next Gen on road courses now too. Hamlin was 18th, 31st, 17th, 14th, 20th and 13th a year ago and 16th in COTA. Like Truex, he’s had some great results lately with four Top-5 finishes in the last seven races including three in the last five. Road courses scare me to snag him.

Chase Briscoe (+5000)

15th in COTA and 13th here last year.

Brad Keselowski (+5000)

He has one Top-5 result in 12 Sonoma tries. In fact, nine of his 12 races have seen him finish 12th or worse including 13th, 18th, 15th and 10th respectively in his last four tries. He finished 35th in COTA.

Erik Jones (+10000)

Ninth in COTA last year, 10th at Watkins Glen and 11th on the ROVAL give me pause that Jones could sneak his way to the front on Sunday. However, he was 22nd here a year ago and 23rd back in March at COTA too.

Austin Dillon (+25000)

Out of his eight Sonoma starts, his best finishes are 11th and 13th. The other six saw him finish 16th or worse.

His road course finishes in 2022 were 19th, 11th, 31st, 30th, seventh and 10th respectively.

Aric Almirola (+30000)

These are not his better tracks. He’s not had a Top-10 result in any of the six road course races last season and was 30th in COTA.