How Much Will New Package Help Sonoma?
This year, we have the second year of this new Next Gen model but this being the second road course event of the season, how much does the 2022 package work in 2023, especially with the changes made?
I think it did somewhat in COTA and with going to Sonoma this weekend, I’m curious on if the changes help spice up the show here too.
The Road Course and Selected Short Track Package will consist of the following:
1. 2” Spoiler
1. Remove Engine Panel Strakes
1. Remove Center and Inner Diffuser Strakes. Only the Outer Diffuser Strakes will remain installed. Spacers will be installed between the diffuser flap and diffuser due to removing the inner diffuser strakes.
1. Remove Diffuser Fences and Replace with Baseline Fences.
1. Splitter stuffers will remain unchanged from the current components.
The rules are in place at the following tracks: Charlotte Roval, Chicago Street Course, Circuit of The Americas, Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course, Martinsville, New Hampshire, North Wilkesboro, Phoenix, Richmond, Sonoma and Watkins Glen.
I feel like COTA was an improvement, so I’m curious to see how it plays out Sunday in Sonoma.
What’s The Strategy Without Stage Cautions?
At the end of January, NASCAR issued some update rule changes. One of the changes made was the removal of stage cautions at road courses. This comes following a review of Fan Council Data and industry discussions. Stage points will still be awarded at the stage-ending lap, but the green-checkered flag will not be displayed and there will not be a caution period to interrupt the action.
It worked out pretty well in COTA, so I’m curious on how it will look on Sunday in Sonoma.
The thing is, I truly think that this move is going to change the way that these races are run now too and doing so in a positive manner.
It was becoming the norm for teams to elect to pit right before the stage would end to give up points for track position. They don’t have that luxury anymore. They automatically knew when two cautions would fly so would plan accordingly. It took the strategy aspect out of these races.
I now like that strategy plays are back in the hands of the teams again and that these races won’t carry on forever. You now don’t know when cautions are coming and can open up when to pit and when not to do so.
Last year, none of the road course races saw a driver that had won the race finish in the points in Stage 1. It’s because they all had pit already. In Stage 2, they finished: 8th (COTA), 4th (Sonoma), 10th (Road America), no points (Indy) and 8th (Watkins Glen), no points (ROVAL).
Reddick played the similar role in Stage 1 in COTA this year but stayed out to take the stage win in the second one.
That luxury isn’t typically there anymore as someone could in theory run away with this thing. They also could run away too far and you’re one caution away from flipping the field too.
Which makes me wonder what strategy these crew chiefs are going to elect to go for. How long do we expect the tires to hold up? Will they hold up for a full fuel run and if so, what is the fuel number?
Do teams short pit or long pit? Do you do the overcut or undercut? Can you pit with clean air in front of you entering and in front of you exiting. In and out laps are key too.
Strategy is open again and I love it.
However, this could make Sunday’s race a physical one. There’s not many walls to hit here and if this ends up being the case, there’s a real possibility that this race could go caution free. With a physical track and no time to rest inside of the car, Sunday could be a survival of the fittest.
“A handful of years ago, that’s how it was,” Team Penske driver Ryan Blaney said of the elimination of stage breaks. “It’s just [about] pitting the race backwards and this is something we’ve been talking about for a year or so, NASCAR and the drivers. Stage breaks at road courses can just jumble the field up so much it gets messy.”
“I think it’s going to clean it up a bit,” Blaney continued. “I think it’s right for road courses personally. We’ll find out. I had no preference either way, honestly, but I think it’s going to be a better with more strategy involved in the race calling.”
Joe Gibbs Racing driver Denny Hamlin said he has some concerns about doing away with the stage breaks and is eager to see how it will play out this weekend. He said he expected the race to be more physically challenging without the scheduled opportunity to pit and noted he planned to make a real effort to stay hydrated – anticipating it to be tougher physically overall for drivers.
“I think this thing has the potential of really getting strung out, a lot” Hamlin said. “If we do, I don’t want to hear any complaining because that’s the potential. … this will make for more strategy though.”
NASCAR started this stage format in 2017 as it rewards points for the top 10 finishers of the two stages. It’s done to make the drivers actually race from the onset of the green flag but also give fans a break to go to the bathroom or concession stand or if you’re at home, to walk away from the TV at the two stoppages.
However, most fans didn’t take to it like NASCAR thought they would. Many fans liked the idea of stages, but why not just continue on with the green flag action? Award points and if the flag was a green checkered like it was, doesn’t green mean, go?
Hence the change.
Did Reddick Truly Answer Toyota’s Deficit?
Many wondered if Toyota truly had a deficit or did their drivers maybe miss a step. Toyota’s struggled last year on road courses. Martin Truex Jr finished 7th, 26th, 13th, 21st, 23rd and 17th in the 6 races on them a year ago. Denny Hamlin was 18th, 31st, 17th, 14th, 20th and 13th respectively himself. Kyle Busch was 28th, 30th, 29th, 11th, 32nd and third. Christopher Bell being 3rd, 27th, 18th, 12th, 8th and first was the bright spot. Bubba Wallace was 38th, 36th, 35th, 5th, 35th and 7th. The 45 ride which is now the 23 was 32nd, 18th, 23rd, 17th, 16th and 22nd between Kurt Busch and Ty Gibbs.
In saying this, how much would another change to the racing package bring them together or does Chevrolet make further gains?
Reddick proved that while the Toyota package overall was down with them finishing 9th (Ty Gibbs), 16th (Denny Hamlin), 17th (Martin Truex Jr), 31st (Christopher Bell) and 37th (Bubba Wallace), he still can get the job done in leading 41 of 75 laps en route to the victory this past March in COTA.
I’d say he answered the question on if Toyota is truly that far off in comparison to everyone else. Or did he truly do so? Maybe he’s just among the best road course racers in the game today.
Reddick has four Cup wins now with three of which coming on road courses including now having a win in half of the six of them on the schedule.
He won last July in Road America as well as Indianapolis and again in COTA.
Is HMS Looks Back To Road Course Form?
Another question looking to be answered was if the Hendrick Motorsports road course package could get back to dominance. Having 2 cars finish in the top five at COTA, a day after 3 of them started in the top six leads me to believe they have.
They went 1-2 at Sonoma in 2021 and entering last season, had combined to have won 9 of the last 11 road course races in general.
Then came the new car last season.
They all said that this new car will greatly improve the road course racing because this car has an emphasis on left and right hand turns. It changes everything. So, did that change HMS’ dominance?
It absolutely did. They went 1-for-6 while Trackhouse won twice, RCR twice and JGR once.
Larson finished 29-15-3-35-1-35 on them last year. On those same tracks in 2021, they went 2-1-16-3-1-1.
Chase Elliott was 4-8-2-16-4-20 a year ago. The year prior, he was 1-2-1-4-2-12.
Elliott had won six of the last 11 road course races in general entering last season with the only four that he didn’t win being the February race in Daytona to where he led the most laps but was screwed for a caution being displayed for rain in which he was going to cruise to an easy victory. The other was a runner-up in Sonoma and Watkins Glen as well at Indianapolis to where he had a top two car that day before the last race chaos. Kyle Larson won 3 of the 7 road course races himself in 2021.
They went 1-2 in COTA, 1-2 in Sonoma, 1-2 in Watkins Glen and 3-4 in Indy for that 2021 season.
The Next Gen took away those advantages. Now, with a year of learning, plus a rules package update, do those changes help HMS get back to the front again?
It showed so.
Elliott wasn’t at COTA while Jordan Taylor filled in for him. Taylor was in the top 10 in practice on Friday and qualified fourth a day later. He’d finish 24th in his Cup Series debut.
Larson struggled there last year but looked vastly better this time around. He was second quickest in practice and was a human pin ball machine in the race however. Bowman looked strong in another top five effort in third, while Byron scored his first career road course top five finish in 22 career starts on them in fifth after leading 28 laps.
“It was all right. I probably could have done better on those restarts,” Byron said. “I gotta look. I just kept getting pushed wide, and it seemed like the last one didn’t happen for some reason. I just gave up too much track position. It was really my only option. Good to get a top five.”
That’s what Byron needed. He was taken to school a bit one could say and that’s okay. He’s not been in this position late in a race on a road course in a position to win. Now, he has and this experience can make him dangerous on these tracks in the future.
“We had a good racecar; I think a top-two racecar really, with the 45,” he admitted. “He was a lot better than everybody, but I thought we were a close second. It was really fun. Tyler is great, and they were great all weekend. Tyler’s been great on the road courses. We made it a battle for sure every time with crossovers, out-braking each other — that was a lot of fun. I hate that it kind of got down to restarts there at the end. I got shoved off one time in second. We needed a top five and probably could have done some things different.”
Are Ford’s The Less Superior Of Manufacturers Now?
Toyota’s were lacking last year, but it appears the Ford’s may be the third out of three in the manufacturers race on road courses. Austin Cindric (3rd) was the only Ford driver in the top 7 Rows at COTA. In fact, they had just three of the top 18 starters.
They only had three cars finish in the top 11 too..
They’ve won only two of the last 19 Sonoma races at that.
Chevrolet has won 15 of the last 18 road course events including 5 of the 6 a year ago.
It’s not even road courses, Ford has struggled lately in general. Yes Ryan Blaney won the Coke 600 and led 83 laps in Gateway, but those were the only laps led by the camp last week.
They led just 8 of 400 laps in Dover, 9 of 267 in Kansas and 9 of 295 in Darlington.
37.7% (431 of 1,141) of their laps led have come on superspeedway’s. 928 of the 1,141 laps led (81.3%) have come at either Daytona, Talladega, Atlanta, Martinsville and Charlotte. That’s 213 combined laps led for the other 10 races.
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