Sunday’s AdventHealth 400 (3 p.m. ET, FS1, MRN) favs, sleepers, fades, Kansas track trends

TRACK: Kansas Speedway (1.5-mile oval) DISTANCE: 267 Laps – Stage 1: 80 Laps, Stage 2: 80 Laps, Final Stage: 107 Laps (400.5 miles)


This will be the 35th Cup Series race at the Kansas Speedway. The NASCAR Cup Series 1st started coming to the Sunflower State in 2001.

Recently paved which makes this a very difficult track to pass on too. Outside lane is better, but there is a chance to take the lead from the inside. Mostly a restart/track position track. You can gamble on 2 tires or depending on how late you are in the race, 0 tires. Clean air is key here.

  • 8 of the last 12 Kansas winners have come from the top six of the starting lineup including 4 of the last 5.
  • 12 of the last 14 Kansas winners started in the top 6 Rows.
  • Toyota has won 5 of the last 7 Kansas races including 7 of the last 12. They swept last year.
  • Toyota’s went 1-3-4-5-6 in the spring race (171 of 267 laps led) and 1-2-3-5 in the Fall (94 of 267 laps led). They combined to lead 265 of 534 laps (49.6%) a year ago.
  • We’ve seen 10 different winners in the last 11 Kansas races. Only repeat winner is Denny Hamlin.
  • There’s been no OT finishes in each of the last 6 races including 12 of the last 14 in general.
  • The eventual race winner scored stage points in every first stage under the stage era with the exception of last year’s spring race.
  • The eventual race winner finished in the top 5 in 6 of the last 7 2nd stages and 9 of the 12 overall second stages.
  • The odd thing is, just twice has the eventual race winner at Kansas actually won a second stage (2019 playoff race, May 2022).
  • Since 2011, every Kansas winner has won a series championship with the exception of Hamlin and Bubba Wallace.
  • In fact, only Hamlin, Ryan Newman, Mark Martin, Greg Biffle, Joe Nemechek and Wallace have won at Kansas and not also won a Cup title. Kyle Larson joined that list but only for a few months in the Fall of 2021 before he became a champion.
KANSAS CITY, KANSAS – SEPTEMBER 11: Kyle Larson, driver of the #5 Chevrolet, William Byron, driver of the #24 Liberty University Chevrolet, and Bubba Wallace, driver of the #45 ROOT Insurance Toyota, race during the NASCAR Cup Series Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway on September 11, 2022 in Kansas City, Kansas. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)


Kyle Larson (+550)

He dominated in leading the most laps but not winning the 2021 spring race. He then would win the playoff race though in the Fall of 2021. He was runner-up and eighth respectively last year for his sixth top 8, four of which being in the Top-4 in his last eight Kansas tries. Larson led 63 laps and finished runner-up this spring in Vegas too.

William Byron (+550)

He has six Top-10 finishes in his last seven starts at Kansas including being ninth and sixth respectively last year. Byron also led 176 laps in a Vegas win this spring too.

Martin Truex Jr. (+750)

Since 2017, he’s had a Top-10 finish in all but one Kansas start including sweeping both race wins in 2017. He finished sixth and fifth last year and was seventh this past March in Vegas. He went over 50 races without a win before being victorious on Monday in Dover. Can he win two straight? He’s done so once in his career, back in 2019 in the playoff races at Las Vegas and Richmond. The span between those races? Six days…

Christopher Bell (+850)

He scored his first Xfinity race win at this very track a few years ago as well as being 10th, eighth and third in the last three Kansas playoff races and fifth in the spring race last year. Bell was also fifth in Vegas too.


Ross Chastain (+1400)

Seventh in both races last year lands him here. So does being 12th in Vegas. He enters on the heels of nearly leading 100 laps in Dover and finishing runner-up.

Kyle Busch (+1600)

He won in May of 2021 and has six Top-5 finishes in his last nine Kansas starts including a third place run last May. This car with Tyler Reddick had good speed here as well.

Kevin Harvick (+1800)

Harvick, has eight top two finishes at Kansas since 2013 including a second-place result in two of his last five starts there in general. He was only 15th in May last year but ninth in the Fall.

23XI Racing

The 45 car swept both races last year via Kurt Busch in the spring and Bubba Wallace (+1800) in the Fall. Busch led 116 of 267 laps in last year’s May race while Wallace led 58 laps in his October win. Wallace was also fourth this past spring in Vegas too. Tyler Reddick (+750) with RCR last year was seventh and 35th but that 35th was a crash after leading 38 laps.

Josh Berry (+6000)

Bowman has seven top 11 results on the 1.5-mile track in his last 10 tries in this car, including being runner-up in the spring race in 2019, eighth and fourth respectively in 2020 and ninth and fourth last year. He won on a similar track in Las Vegas last spring and was third this past spring there too. What can Berry do in it?

Austin Dillon (+10000)

He was 10th in both races in 2021 to go along with being 11th in the 2020 playoff race and 13th and 14th last year.

KANSAS CITY, KS – MAY 10: Aric Almirola, driver of the #10 Smithfield Ford, signs autographs during practice for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Digital Ally 400 at Kansas Speedway on May 10, 2019 in Kansas City, Kansas. (Photo by Brian Lawdermilk/Getty Images)


Denny Hamlin (+800)

The only driver to have won multiple times here in the last 11 races and was fourth and second here last year. However, he says that his pit crew has been a problem area for the team this season and that, plus him speeding on pit road throughout the year again so far, I feel like is a recipe for disaster.

Chase Elliott (+1200)

He’s had six top six finishes in his last nine Kansas starts including being fifth and second in 2021. However, being 29th and 11th last year and no Top-5 finishes on good tracks for him in the three races back from his leg injury also concerns me too.

Team Penske:

Austin Cindric (+10000) was 11th and 12th respectively last year as a rookie. His last five finishes on the season were: 28th, 19th, 33rd, 26th and 26th respectively. Ryan Blaney (+1800) has had five of his last eight Kansas races have seen him finish 20th or worse and 12th and ninth last year. For Joey Logano (+2200) he’s finished 15th or worse in six of his last eight at Kansas. They were sixth (Cindric), 13th (Blaney) and 36th (Logano) in Vegas. He’s also finished 30th or worse in 3 of the last 4 weeks on the season as well.

Daniel Suarez (+3500)

33rd and 10th last year. He has one top 18 in his last eight starts on the season.

Chase Briscoe (+6500)

He was 24th and 13th a year ago.

Aric Almirola (+10000)

No top five finishes in 22 starts puts him on this list.

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