Sunday’s Wurth 400 (2 p.m. ET, FS1, PRN) race favorites, sleepers, fades and Dover Track Trends

TRACK: Dover International Speedway (1 mile oval) DISTANCE: 400 Laps — STAGE 1: 120 Laps, STAGE 2: 120 Laps, FINAL STAGE: 160 Laps, MILES (400 Miles)


  • Only the 3rd time since 1970 that we will run just one race on the track.
  • Ford has only won 2 of the last 21 Dover races.
  • The pole winner has won 13 times at Dover. But, what’s odd is, there’s not been a pole winner to win on the Monster Mile though since 2011.
  • 3 of the last 6 Dover winners have come from a starting spot of Row 7 or worse. However, the 2nd place starting spot has won almost half (4) of the last 9 races there too.
  •  If you go back to 2016 even, we’ve had 11 straight races at Dover to where someone led at least 100 laps.

Live Betting

  • Since the stage era started in 2017, the eventual race winner has finished in the top 10 at the end of the two stages per race in all but one try (2019 Race 1). That was due to the doubleheader and pit strategy for the end of the first stage. Last year, Chase Elliott was second in Stage 1 and 10th in Stage 2.
  • Furthermore, 15 of the 18 stages run have seen the eventual race winner finish in the top five at that.
  • In the final stage (10 times) the race winner finished in the top 10 in all of them with a top five finish in 8 of the 10.
  • 6 of the last 8 final stages have seen the eventual race winner finish either 1st, 2nd or 3rd at that including both races in 2020 seeing the winners sweep both stages.


Most banked among the 3 one-mile tracks on the schedule. Also, a concrete track that makes it vastly different too. Very fast which makes this very tough on equipment and tires. A place where 4 tires on every stop is key. Closest to Bristol in resemblance.


Hendrick Motorsports

They went 1-2-3-4 in 2021 and 1-5-6 last year. They’ve also won two of the three races on tracks 1-mile or less this season with William Byron winning in Phoenix and Kyle Larson at Martinsville. HMS also led 94 of 400 laps in their win a year ago while leading 382 of 400 laps (95.5%) in ’21.

Kyle Larson (+500)

Just look at what he’s done at this track with Ganassi (3 straight top 3’s), then see a runner-up in 2021 (263 laps led) and sixth last year (19 laps led) with Hendrick Motorsports on the Monster Mile. He also has 11 top 10’s in his last 13 starts there including 7 of them being in the top five.

William Byron (+550)

He’s finished fourth place in two of his last three Dover starts and has been stout on short tracks this season as well.

Chase Elliott (+650)

He’s scored five Top-5 finishes in his last seven Dover starts including a win last year.

Alex Bowman (+1600)

A Top-3 finish in both races in 2019 to go along with a fifth place run in race 2 of 2020, a win in 2021 and a fifth place run again last year gives him five Top-5 finishes on the Monster Mile in his last six tries there.


Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin (+900)

Hard to ignore here. Hamlin, has five Top-7 finishes in his last eight Dover starts including a runner-up in 2018 and a victory in 2020. If not for multiple issues while running up front last year, Hamlin likely would have been a key player for the win. He led 67 laps in 2022, two in 2021, 115 laps in Race 1 in 2020 and 218 laps in 2019.

Christopher Bell (+900)

He finished fourth last year and has been stout on short tracks this season too.

Martin Truex Jr. (+1400)

The speed is there. Truex, has a win in the spring race of 2019 and three straight runner-ups to follow before being 19th in 2021. He regained strength back last year in scoring a 12th place finish. The the thing is, he led five laps and was battling with Ross Chastain for third on the final lap before contact sent Truex to a finish outside the top 10. He was fifth and fourth respectively in both stages. Since 2014, he has 12 top 10 finishes (16 starts) including eight Top-4 finishes in his last 11 tries.

Ty Gibbs (+4500)

He was fifth and third respectively in his pair of Xfinity Series starts and entering with some momentum. This car led 103 laps a year ago…

Trackhouse Racing

Ross Chastain (+1400) led 86 laps in a third place finish last season. He was fourth and sixth in the pair of stages too. Daniel Suarez (+4500) finished 9th and 14th the last two years here too. Suarez has 6 Top-11’s in 10 starts on the Monster Mile in Cup competition. In Xfinity, he had five Top-10’s in seven starts including a win in 2016. In a pair of Truck Series starts, Suarez finished second in both. To say this track is one of his best is an understatement. That’s 18 career national touring divisions starts at Dover with 13 Top-11’s including five of which in the top three.

Kevin Harvick (+1100)

Why not? Seven Top-6 finishes including in his last eight starts for which two of them being wins. He was fourth in both races in 2019, fourth and first respectively in 2020 sixth in 2021 and ninth last year.

Kyle Busch (+1800)

Which Busch shows up this weekend? In the spring race, he has just two Top-10 finishes in his last eight tries if you ignore 2020 since it took place in late summer. In fact, his 10th place showing in 2019 and seventh last year are his only finishes in the top 15 in that time frame. But, in his last six Fall races, Busch had six top 10’s including a win and two runner-ups. Now, the weekend’s are combined again…Tyler Reddick was 30th in this car last year. Busch though led 103 laps in this very race too.

Chris Buescher (+3500)

He’s good on concrete tracks. He won Bristol last year and was eighth here too in a race that he led 18 laps in.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+6000)

He was fifth in the second stage last year and took that to a runner-up in the end.

Ryan Preece (+6500)

Stewart-Haas Racing has been good here over the years. This car with Cole Custer had a pair of top 10’s as a rookie, a 10th place run in 2021. Preece was fourth in an Xfinity Series race with JGR in 2018.


Team Penske

Ford’s been to victory lane just twice in the last 21 Dover races and a year ago, Team Penske finished 26th, 29th and 36th.

Joey Logano (+2200)

He had three straight Top-8 finishes at Dover including five in his last six starts prior to being 29th a year ago. Logano has also struggled on short tracks this season as well.

Ryan Blaney (+2200)

0 Top-5’s and just two Top-10 finishes in 12 career Dover starts isn’t ideal. His last seven Dover starts have seen him finish 12th or worse.

Austin Cindric (+10000)

He finished last a year ago.

Chase Briscoe (+3500)

Briscoe took over a car that Clint Bowyer scored four top 10 finishes including a runner-up in the spring race in 2018, in his last seven starts on the Monster Mile. Briscoe was 35th and 13th respectively in this car after. The thing is, Briscoe was 10th and first respectively in the two races in Xfinity Series competition in 2020 to go along with three Top-5’s in four NXS starts on the track.

Brad Keselowski (+3500)

No Top-5’s in his last 10 Dover starts to go along with only one in his last 14 puts him on this list.

Aric Almirola (+6500)

Just one top 10 in his last 11 Dover starts including five of his last six being 16th or worse.

Austin Dillon (+10000)

Dillon was ninth in 2020 at Dover for just his third Top-10 in Monster Mile starts. He’s never had a top five there either.

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