RACE HISTORY/TRENDS

This will be the 3rd ever race on this track so there’s not much history or trends to witness here. The inaugural race was run during daytime conditions while the second edition last year under the lights.

• Starting position hasn’t mattered here. The winners started 10th and 11th respectively.
• In fact, the inaugural race saw 11 of the top 14 finishers each start outside the top 10 that day.
• In both races, the pole winner failed to lead a single lap. Kyle Larson finished 29th from the pole in 2021 and Cole Custer 13th a year ago.
• Also, in both races, the 2nd place starter has just 1 total lap led too. Denny Hamlin led just a single lap in 2021. Christopher Bell failed to lead a lap last year and finished 7th.
• Both winners did score stage points in both stages of their respective race.
• Stage 1 finish: 6th (2021), 5th (2022)
• Stage 2 finish: 1st (2021), 5th (2022)
• Both races saw a lot of cautions. There were 10 for 39 laps in 2021 and 14 for 82 laps last year.

TRACK COMPARISONS

This is the only dirt track on the schedule still so no where else to compare this one to.

Favorites

Kyle Larson (+550)

Arguably the top dirt racer in the game today. It’s crazy to think that he’s 0-for-2 here. However, he did start on the pole in 2021, then finished fifth after leading 27 laps last year. Coming in to this weekend on the heels of a Richmond win and seeing how dominant Hendrick Motorsports has been this season, there’s no reason to believe that Larson can’t win Sunday’s race.

Tyler Reddick (+600)

He was seventh in the inaugural edition in 2021 and runner-up last year after leading 99 laps and being two corners away from victory. To enter with three Top-5 finishes in the last four weeks gives me reason to pick him this weekend.

Christopher Bell (+650)

Bell is off to a strong start this season (5 Top-6’s in the first seven weeks) and honestly as good as Larson is on dirt tracks. He started second and finished seventh a year ago and in a prime position to believe that he can score his first victory of the season under the lights on Sunday.

Joey Logano (+1000)

He won the inaugural race in 2021 and backed that up with a strong third place finish last year. For whatever reason, Logano has taken to dirt racing even though he had no real experience on it prior to the inaugural edition.

Chase Briscoe (+1000)

Stats say finishes of 20th and 29th respectively here. However, Briscoe is a dirt guy by nature and was second in the final laps a year ago. He even led 59 laps in the process. However, an overzealous move for the win cost him a top two finish. He’s after redemption on Sunday night and needs a good finish to get himself back into the playoff conversation.

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Sleepers

Kyle Busch (+1200)

The car he’s driving now was in contention to win last year, but crashed with Chase Briscoe while both were going for the win. It allowed Busch to sneak by to take the victory instead. Busch has led laps in both races so far here on the dirt too.

Ryan Blaney (+1500)

Not known as a dirt racer, but he’s been in the Top-10 in both races (8th, 5th). Do you trust him? I do for these odds.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+2000)

A dirt guy who was runner-up in 2021 and entering having won this past year’s Daytona 500. Watch out.

Alex Bowman (+2500)

A dirt guy growing up with a finish of sixth last year. He’s started in Row 4 (7th, 8th) in both events too. On the season, Bowman has a Top-10 finish in all but once race run too.

Daniel Suarez (+2500)

Suarez was fourth in 2021 after leading 58 laps. While he was only 12th last year, he led another 64 laps in the process. He’s reeling entering this weekend after having three straight races to where he finished outside the Top-20, but Bristol Dirt is a good track for him to get back on track.

Brad Keselowski (+3000)

11th in both races. You have to put yourself up front in order to capitalize on others’ mistakes and I feel like Keselowski has that capability here. Worth a flier.

Austin Dillon (+5000)

He won a late model race at Bristol in 2021 and has a dirt background to where he’s been very successful at. That’s why I don’t put a lot of stock in his finishes (21st, 31st) here.

Michael McDowell (+8000)

A respectable 12th in 2021 and ninth last year.

Justin Haley (+8000)

He’s been great on dirt tracks and was 14th as a rookie last year. I expect a good night out of him on Sunday.

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Fades

William Byron (+1000)

He was sixth in 2021 but just 18th a year ago. Byron doesn’t come from a dirt background which is why despite having fast race cars this season, I’m punting on him.

Ross Chastain (+1500)

Arguably his worst track on the schedule with a pair of sub-30th place finishes (35th, 33rd).

Denny Hamlin (+1800)

Started second and finished third in 2021 but was only 35th after experiencing engine issues a year ago. He’s only had just two Top-10 finishes all season.

Martin Truex Jr. (+2500)

He won the inaugural Truck Series race here in 2021 and even led 126 laps in the Cup race that day as well. However, his two finishes in Cup competition are also 19th and 21st respectively too. Truex is fading and riding a 51 race winless drought. On top of that, he has just one Top-10 finish all season.

Chris Buescher (+3000)

Not a dirt racer either. However, he’s had a Top-15 result in both years (14th, 15th).

Kevin Harvick (+4000)

This is his final Bristol dirt start and I’m sure he’ll be ecstatic about that. Harvick was only 15th and 34th in his pair of starts here.

Bubba Wallace (+6000)

He’s not shy in saying he’s not suited well for this track. Wallace has finished 27th and 28th respectively.

Austin Cindric (+15000)

He has a road racing background and not dirt. Which is why he was only 16th a year ago.

Erik Jones (+15000)

9th in 2021 but 24th a year ago.

Aric Almirola (+20000)

Not one of his stronger tracks. He’s not a dirt racer and finished 36th and 23rd respectively here.

Harrison Burton (+20000)

20th as a rookie a year ago.