Prime Sports NASCAR weekly picks update leaving COTA and heading to Richmond

We all cashed in on Tyler Reddick’s COTA victory and head into this weekends race at Richmond with some much needed momentum.


4-1…W Byron

5-1…K Harvick

6-1…K Larson

7-1…C Bell

9-1…D Hamlin

11-1…M Truex Jr.

12-1…Kyle B

16-1…R Blaney and J Logano

18-1…A Bowman, R Chastain and T Reddick

25-1…B Keselowski

28-1…C Buescher

35-1…J Berry and D Suarez

50-1…A Almirola, C Briscoe and D Wallace

80-1…A Dillon and T Gibbs

100-1…AJ Allmendinger, A Cindric and E Jones

130-1…R Preece

250-1…H Gragson and M McDowell

300-1…R Stenhouse Jr.

400-1…H Burton and J Haley

1000-1…C Lajoie

NOTE: Each analyst has a weekly wagering limit of $100.

NOTE: The weekly wagering limits will increase $100 for each playoff round ending with a $500 wagering limit for the Championship Four race.


Greg DePalma

C Bell…7-1…$30 ($210)

D Hamlin…9-1…$13 ($117)

M Truex Jr.…11-1…$18 ($198)

K Busch…12-1…$12 ($144)

R Blaney…16-1…$8 ($128)

J Logano…16-1…$8 ($128)

R Chastain…18-1…$6 ($108)

C Briscoe…50-1…$2 ($100)

T Gibbs…80-1…$2 ($160)

A Cindric…100-1…$1 ($100)

CJ Radune

K Larson…6-1…$19 ($114)

C Bell…7-1…$17 ($119)

D Hamlin…9-1…$13 ($117)

M Truex Jr.…11-1…$11 ($121)

K Busch…12-1…$10 ($120)

R Blaney…16-1…$8 ($128)

J Logano…16-1…$8 ($128)

R Chastain…18-1…$7 ($126)

T Reddick…18-1…$7 ($126)

Eric Smith

K Harvick…5-1…$25 ($125)

C Bell…7-1…$18 ($126)

D Hamlin…9-1…$15 ($135)

M Truex Jr.…11-1…$12 ($132)

K Busch…12-1…$9 ($108)

A Bowman…18-1…$7 ($126)

B Keselowski…25-1…$5 ($125)

C Buescher…28-1…$4 ($112)

A Dillon…80-1…$2 ($160)

T Gibbs…80-1…$2 ($160)

R Preece…130-1…$1 ($130)


CJ Radune

RECORD: 3 for 6

TOTAL: -183

Greg DePalma

RECORD: 2 for 6

TOTAL: -235

Eric Smith

RECORD: 2 for 6

TOTAL: -359




Greg DePalma

R Chastain…8-1…$25 ($200)

T Reddick…9-1…$20 ($180) …WINNER!

AJ Allmendinger…12-1…$12 ($144)

C Bell…15-1…$12 ($180)

R Blaney…15-1…$7 ($105)

A Cindric…15-1…$7 ($105)

D Suarez…15-1…$10 ($150)

C Briscoe…25-1…$7 ($175)

RECORD: 1 for 1

TOTAL: +100

CJ Radune

K Larson…6-1…$19 ($114)

K Busch…8-1…$14 ($112)

R Chastain…8-1…$14 ($112)

T Reddick…9-1…$13 ($117) …WINNER!

AJ Allmendinger…12-1…$10 ($120)

C Bell…15-1…$8 ($120)

R Blaney…15-1…$8 ($120)

A Cindric…15-1…$8 ($120)

T Gibbs…50-1…$3 ($150)

J Johnson…50-1…$3 ($150)

RECORD: 1 for 1

TOTAL: +30

Eric Smith

K Busch…8-1…$16 ($128)

R Chastain…8-1…$15 ($120)

T Reddick…9-1…$12 ($108) …WINNER!

AJ Allmendinger…12-1…$11 ($132)

C Bell…15-1…$8 ($120)

A Cindric…15-1…$8 ($120)

D Suarez…15-1…$8 ($120)

A Bowman…20-1…$7 ($120)

C Briscoe…25-1…$4 ($100)

C Buescher…30-1…$4 ($120)

M McDowell…30-1…$4 ($120)

K Raikkonen…50-1…$3 ($150)

RECORD: 1 for 1TOTAL: +20


This will be the 133rd race of the history of NASCAR and the Cup Series at Richmond (VA) Raceway. Again his year, both races will once take place under daytime conditions again instead of at night, making both races one in the same.

  • The Toyota’s are the heavy favorites with them sweeping the action at Richmond in 2018 and 2019 to go along with 9 trips to victory lane in the last 14 starts on the .75-mile D-Shaped Virginia oval including last spring. JGR went 1-2-3-4 across the finish line in Sept. 2019 as their top feat. They had the fastest race cars here last April too.
  • Starting position doesn’t matter here as much as it does in other places. Drivers say in qualifying, you attack this track for 2 laps but in the race, you have to baby the tires and take it easy. Push too hard in race mode, you fall backwards due to tire wear. It’s why 3 of the last 4 winners started outside of the top 10 including both Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick from 13th this last year and Alex Bowman from 24th the spring prior.
  • Richmond has been a championship precursor lately. 3 of the 4 Championship 4 drivers were in the top 6 last Fall. All 4 of them the year prior were in the top 6 in the 2021 Fall race and half were in the top five in the 2021 spring race. In 2020, 3 of the 4 were in the top five in the Fall race (only race of 2020 at Richmond). For 2019, they went 1-2-3-7 in the Fall race and 1-4-5-8 in the spring. In 2018, they went 1-2-3-14 in the Fall race and 1-4-5-14 in the spring.

Live In Race Betting Trends To Watch
• Strategy is key here and Denny Hamlin scored no stage points in his win last past spring while Kevin Harvick had no points in Stage 1 and was 4th in the second stage. 3 times since 2018 has someone swept both stages here but didn’t win.

  • Stage 1 finishes by eventual race winner: 10th, 2nd, 6th, no points, 3rd, 1st, 4th, 7th, 8th, no points, no points
  • Stage 2 finishes by eventual race winner: 10th, 6th, 6th, no points, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 4th, 3rd, no points, 4th


Flat like Phoenix and Loudon. You can be aggressive with a 2 tire pit strategy in the final stage that might make it interesting as long as everyone doesn’t do the same thing. Day race though will be more abrasive on tires.

RICHMOND, VIRGINIA – APRIL 03: Denny Hamlin, driver of the #11 FedEx Express Toyota, takes the checkered flag to win the NASCAR Cup Series Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway on April 03, 2022 in Richmond, Virginia. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)


Martin Truex Jr. 

He has to be a favorite, right? He absolutely needs a win and Truex has 8 Top-5 finishes at Richmond in his last nine tries including four Top-2’s in his last seven at that. He was 4th last spring after leading 80 laps and scoring a stage win while being seventh last summer.

Denny Hamlin

He was runner-up in both races in 2021 including leading 207 laps in the spring and 197 in the Fall. Hamlin won the spring race last year and fourth in the summer to tally 11 Top-6 finishes in his last 13 Richmond starts.

Kevin Harvick

Worth a look. He was runner-up last spring and won last summer for his eighth Top-8 result in his last nine Richmond tries. He also has 20 consecutive Top-10 finishes at Phoenix too including what should have been a win last month.

Kyle Busch

He has nine straight top nine results including a top two in nearly half of his last 14 Richmond starts. He also had finished in the Top-10 in almost every short track event last season as well. Now, he’s in Chevrolet power…


Christopher Bell

He was fourth and third respectively in 2021, sixth in the spring race after leading 63 laps and scoring a 2nd place finish in the 2nd stage and runner-up last summer. Bell qualified in the top five at Phoenix and was sixth in the end.

Chris Buescher

The RFK Racing driver finished third here last summer and 15th last spring.

Austin Dillon

He surprised everyone in 2020 with a fourth place run at Richmond, but, he’s also had seven top 11 finishes in his last eight on this track. He was 10th in this race last spring.

Chase Briscoe

Not much past stats to go off of but he won Phoenix last year and was fourth last November there and seventh last month. He was 11th here last spring.

RICHMOND, VIRGINIA – APRIL 18: Cole Custer, driver of the #41 Ford, and Chase Elliott, driver of the #9 NAPA Auto Parts Chevrolet, race during the NASCAR Cup Series Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway on April 18, 2021 in Richmond, Virginia. (Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images)

Who To Fade?

Hendrick Motorsports

Alex Bowman lucked into a win in 2021 for his only Top-5 in 10 Richmond starts. William Byron used strategy and strategy only to lead 122 laps in his only Top-5 in nine Richmond starts last spring. Kyle Larson has just one Top-5 finish in his last eight Richmond starts and that was only a fifth placed run in last year’s spring race.

They just don’t have the speed to win this race.

Team Penske

Not one of Ryan Blaney’s better tracks. He’s never had a Top-5 here in 13 Richmond starts. Austin Cindric was 20th and 12th as a rookie and Logano was 17th and 6th himself. Logano and Cindric each struggled in Phoenix last month too.

Ross Chastain

Was seventh in the 2021 Fall race and third in both stages last spring. However, he was only 19th and 18th respectively at the finish last year too.

Tyler Reddick

He was third at Phoenix last month. However, he was also third in last year’s spring Phoenix race and finished 12th and 31st here too. His teammate now isn’t as strong here either.

Bubba Wallace

26th and 13th respectively last year.

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