Practice has been wrapped up. So has qualifying to set the field for Sunday’s United Rentals Work United 500 (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX, MRN). So, who’s going to win the fourth race of the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series season?

10 of the last 11 Phoenix winners have come from a top 10 starting spot. In fact, 14 of the last 17 have started in the first 5 Rows including 8 of the last 9 from the top 6 at that.

That gives me reason to pick a driver who made the final round of qualifying on Saturday as the favorites.

Top 5

1. 5 Larson – 3 of the last Phoenix winners started from the pole including Larson in the 2021 championship round here.
2. 12 Blaney – 2nd quickest in practice on Friday on single lap speed as well as 10 lap averages. He starts 8th. Blaney has three straight top four finishes here and led 109 or more laps in both races a year ago.
3. 1 Chastain – Was in the top three in both races in 2022 as well as qualifying 6th.
4. 8 Busch – This car finished third last year and Busch qualified in the top 10 on Sunday. Busch also has 13 top 7 finishes in his last 15 Phoenix starts too.
5. 4 Harvick – The last time that he didn’t finish in the top 10 here was back in the 2013 spring race. However, he’s not finished better than 5th in his last 5 starts either.