There’s several prominent names in the NASCAR Cup Series garage that don’t have a contract in place past this upcoming season. As a result, there’s several top seats that could become available in the process. However, what makes this silly season different than others is the TV piece of the pie and how this gets negotiated with between all parties.
The current TV deal expires at the end of the 2024 season. That means a new deal will be in place for 2025 that reportedly will be even bigger than the one that they’re operating on right now. Where this affects silly season is the fact that how can you now sign a “multi-year deal” knowing that things could change for 2025?
What I mean by that is, teams are negotiating a bigger piece of that TV money pie. They feel like if they can get more, they can offer more money to drivers instead of taking sponsorships money from drivers coming to them. In wake of that, drivers could in theory make way more money in 2025 with this TV deal.
So, why take a multi-year deal and sell yourself short of making more money in 2025 and beyond? However, why take a one-year deal also and put yourself right back in the thick of uncertainty for two full seasons?
Maybe someone with money comes to a team and takes less with a longer security of a job and the teams finds them attractive enough to hire because if they do get a larger chunk of the TV money, that’s extra profit.
See where I’m going with this?
We know the No. 4 Ford with Stewart-Haas Racing is open next season. Does someone come into that ride on a one-year deal?
What about Martin Truex Jr? What about Denny Hamlin? What about both Trackhouse Racing seats? What about Alex Bowman? That’s 6 quality rides and 6 championship quality drivers, that as of now, are open in 2024.
Does someone looking for their big break come to one of these teams with some sponsorship checks in hand and say I’ll commit for a 2-3 year deal and get you through 2025? Does that devalue the market for these veteran drivers?
JGR is in a weird spot because they already lost the Mars sponsorship, FedEx is reportedly up at the end of this season and if Truex Jr. doesn’t come back, does Bass Pro Shops? Could someone end up at JGR with money to bring them and get a ride over a veteran more deserving of it?
What about Ross Chastain and Daniel Suarez? They’re each betting on themselves in 2023. What happens if their stats decline this year or next? What if 2022 was more parity and the newness of the Next Gen rather than what they can truly do? I’m not saying that’s the case, but I’m pondering what if? What does that do to their market value for the future, especially two important years coming up?
That’s why I find it highly intriguing what this year’s silly season looks like because these are big drivers and massive championship caliber rides but the TV deal and what that looks like doesn’t start until 2025. How many one year deals do we see this season come around?
If Custer has a repeat xfinity year ,like his last one, I say he’s back at SHR cup level next year. Maybe rebrand the 4 to 00. If he flops then I think Erik Jones gets the 4.
Berry to the 43.
Bowman will have 2-3 wins this year and he’ll be safe.
Chastain and Suarez stay put.
I think JRM and Truex get together for ‘24, Dale and Kelley have a charter plan they just don’t want to share yet.
JH Nemechek gets in the 19.
11 and fedex stay out for now, but I expect the 11 to become a part of 23XI in the future, opening the door for the 18 to return.
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I 100% agree with everything you said! Well done and thought out!
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