Justin Allgaier wasn’t even supposed to be here. Not in this moment. Not after how the last two weeks went anyway. Allgaier’s race in Miami was plagued with problems. It looked like for most of the day that he would be put in a win or go home situation for the Round of 8 elimination race in Martinsville. Instead, you glance at the box score and remarkably see his No. 7 Chevrolet in the 10th finishing position.

How?

It was a remarkable comeback. That left him 6 points on the outside heading into last Saturday’s cut race to decide who makes the Championship 4. While he raced his way back on the plus side in the first two stages, it was a wild ending to what took him out and back in again.

AJ Allmendinger took tires on a late race caution. Allgaier didn’t. Allgaier was in 6th. Allmendinger in 16th. Then Allmendinger charged hard and was battling with Allgaier for that final spot to Phoenix. Allmendinger cut a tire while fighting with Allgaier and put Allgaier back on the positive side. However, Brandon Jones was going for a win and had two Joe Gibbs Racing teammates surrounding him. If Jones won, it wouldn’t matter what Allgaier did on points, he’d be out.

Unfortunately for Jones, he was crashed while leading the final lap by his teammate Ty Gibbs. That put Allgaier back in. Even with a spin late, he’d rebound to finish 5th again.

Now here they are. Battle tested. Ready for a fight. Oddly enough, the last two weeks and how those races transpired could have proved beneficial for Allgaier. They’ve been in a do-or-die mode the last two weeks and here he is in his 5th Championship 4 appearance.

He has 3 top five finishes in the last 7 races, but those came in the last 4 weeks too. At Phoenix, he’s made 24 starts with two wins, 8 top 5 finishes and 16 top 10’s. The only thing is, he’s only had 2 top 5’s in his last 8 at Phoenix too.

How much of a role does that veteran presence play when two of the other three drivers are making their final round debuts?

There’s no doubt about it, his teammate Noah Gragson and Gibbs are the favorites. Trends though state that Allgaier may be in the prime spot to win however.

The No. 1 seed has made it to the final round in 6 of the 7 years, but in the previous 6 instances, they have just 1 championship. Not good for Gragson. In fact, the top seed remaining entering the final round has just 1 title between them. The best odds are the third out of four seeds entering the final round with three titles. Last year, the last seed among the four won. So, despite the top 2 seeds being the clear favorites, don’t assume they’ll win the championship.

Allgaier is the No. 3 seed…