Greg picked up the unlikely win by Christopher Bell last Sunday in Martinsville and heads to Phoenix as a winner in 20 of the 35 races. Can any of the trio make up enough money to end in a positive category in the season finale? We have 1 last shot in 2022 to do so.

Prime Sports NASCAR Championship 4 Preview Show

Season Finale 500 Preview
Which trend to you think wins out? In all eight years under this Championship 4 format, the champion had to win the season finale. In fact, more times than not, all four championship drivers have finishing in the top four at that. They’ve done so in 2 of the last 4 years and have at the very minimum been 1-2-3 in three of the last four years at that.
2021: 1-2-3-5 (2nd year at Phoenix)
2020: 1-2-3-4 (1st year at Phoenix)
2019: 1-2-4-10 (last year at Homestead)
2018: 1-2-3-4 (Homestead)
2017: 1-2-4-7 (Homestead)
2016: 1-4-6-34 (Homestead)
2015: 1-2-6-12 (Homestead)
2014: 1-2-7-16 (Homestead)
That’s why the top odds go to the championship front runners. However, in this year of the playoffs and a new car, we’ve seen way more parity. The first four races of this year’s postseason were each won by non championship eligible drivers. The reason for that was because the drivers felt like there was no more holding back your best stuff for this year’s playoffs. You have what you have.

So that does mean this is the year we see some better racing for the win up front among non championship contenders?

It’s not unprecedented. Prior to this format, the champion only won the final race once in the previous 10 years of the playoff format (2011 Tony Stewart). In fact, if you go back to the start of the Modern Era (1972) and go through the 2003 season on the traditional points format, the season champion won the season finale just two times in 42 years. Jeff Gordon (1998 in Atlanta) and Tony Stewart (2011 in Homestead). They’re 8-for-8 since.
Season Finale 500 Top Stats
• Starting position matters in Phoenix. 9 of the last 10 Phoenix winners have come from a top 10 starting spot. In fact, 13 of the last 16 have started in the first 5 Rows including 7 of the last 8 from the top 6 at that.
• We’ve only seen 1 overtime finish in the last
o The final green flag run was just 3 laps this past spring.
o In the spring race of 2021, the final 25 laps went green while the final 24 laps in the playoff race went green to checkered.
o We went green for the final 112 laps in the 2020 playoff race without a yellow in the final stage.
o For 2019, the spring race went 74 laps from green to checkered over the final run but only three in the playoff event.
o In 2018, it was 114 laps (spring) and 12 laps (Fall) over the final green flag run to the distance.
• The driver to win the spring race in Phoenix has only went on to win the series championship just three times – Terry Labonte (1984), Dale Earnhardt (1990) and Jeff Gordon (1995). That may not bode well for Chase Briscoe.
Season Finale 500 Live Trends
· Martin Truex Jr. last spring was the only driver since the 2017 Fall race to not score stage points in both stages and to win at Phoenix.
· In fact, since the stages were introduced in 2017, he’s the only driver not to score stage points in Stage 1 and win in the end.
· 6 of the last 7 Phoenix races saw the eventual race winner get a top five in the opening stage. Chase Briscoe finished 2nd in Stage 1 back in March.
· Furthermore, 6 of the last 8 race winners had a top 2 in Stage 2. Briscoe was 8th in March.
· Basically, a driver in the top five in Stage 1 and top 2 in Stage 2 is your winner on Sunday.

Race Odds

2-1…C Elliott

4-1…C Bell, R Chastain and J Logano

14-1…K Larson

16-1…R Blaney and D Hamlin

18-1…K Harvick

22-1…M Truex Jr.

25-1…C Briscoe

30-1…Kyle B, W Byron and T Reddick

50-1…D Wallace

66-1…A Bowman and B Keselowski

80-1…A Almirola and D Suarez

150-1…C Buescher, A Cindric and A Dillon

200-1…AJ Allmendinger and E Jones

250-1…C Custer and T Gibbs

400-1…J Haley

500-1…M McDowell and R Stenhouse Jr

1000-1…H Burton

NOTE: Each analyst has a weekly wagering limit of $100.

NOTE: The weekly wagering limits will increase $100 for each playoff round ending with a $500 wagering limit for the Championship Four race.

CHAMPIONSHIP 4 RACE PICKS: RACE 36

Greg DePalma

C Bell…4-1…$350 ($1,400)

R Blaney…16-1…$90 ($1,440)

B Wallace…50-1…$35 ($1,750) 

B Keselowski…66-1…$25 ($1,650) 

RECORD: 18 for 35

TOTAL: -866

Eric Smith

C Bell…4-1…$150 ($600)

R Chastain…4-1…$150 ($600)

J Logano…4-1…$150 ($600)

D Hamlin…16-1…$50 ($800)

RECORD: 18 for 35

TOTAL: -1,767

CJ Radune

C Bell…4-1…$167 ($668)

R Chastain…4-1…$166 ($664)

J Logano…4-1…$167 ($668)

RECORD: 19 for 35

TOTAL: -2,085

ARCHIVES

XFINITY 500 PICKS: RACE 35

XFINITY 500 WINNER: Christopher Bell

Greg DePalma

D Hamlin…7-1…$100 ($700) …5^th

W Byron…9-1…$90 ($810) …7^th  

R Blaney…10-1…$90 ($900) …3^rd

C Bell…12-1…$35 ($420) …1^st

R Chastain…12-1…$35 ($420) …4^th

AJ Allmendinger…30-1…$30 ($900) …23^rd  

A Dillon…40-1…$20 ($800) …33^rd  

RECORD: 1 for 1

TOTAL: +55

Eric Smith

C Elliott…6-1…$150 ($900) …10^th

D Hamlin…7-1…$99 ($693) …5^th

J Logano…10-1…$70 ($700) …6^th  

Kyle B…15-1…$27 ($405) …29^th

C Briscoe…20-1…$24 ($480) …9^th  

AJ Allmendinger…30-1…$15 ($450) …23^rd    

B Keselowski…30-1…$15 ($450) …36^th   

RECORD: 0 for 1

TOTAL: -400

CJ Radune

C Elliott…6-1…$85 ($510) …10^th  

D Hamlin…7-1…$70 ($490) …5^th

W Byron…9-1…$60 ($540) …7^th   

R Blaney…10-1…$50 ($500) …3^rd  

M Truex Jr…10-1…$50 ($500) …20^th

R Chastain…12-1…$40 ($480) …4^th

C Briscoe…20-1…$25 ($500) …9^th    

B Keselowski…30-1…$20 ($600) …36^th     

RECORD: 0 for 1TOTAL: -400