MARTINSVILLE, VA — The Round of 8 elimination race is here. P&Q is now done so lets look at what I’m watching for Sunday’s Xfinity 500 (2 p.m. ET, NBC, MRN) at the Martinsville (VA) Speedway.

Short Track Improvement?

The spring Martinsville race was abysmal. Very little lead changes (5) and no real action. The shifting, the bigger tires, little tire fall off, the cooler temperatures all played a role they said. However, the other short tracks on the schedule suggest we could be in for a long day again.

Bristol featured the lowest amount of lead changes (12) since 2009. Richmond was ho-hum. Very little passing at either. With this race and Phoenix being the final two races of the season, did NASCAR do enough between visits to improve the show?

“It was pretty tough. We pitted in front of the 17, so just kind of the way the year has gone. Just went from having a chance to lead the parade to being a part of the parade,” Kevin Harvick said at Bristol. “Just difficult to pass. Parted it way too fast through the corners. Can’t race.”

With this new car, one part to it is an increase in tire size. That bigger tires lead to more grip in the turns and as a result, you get higher cornering speeds. That plus the option to shift, well it’s in turn hurt the short track racing package.

The weather conditions aren’t going to help again. Ambient temps in the upper 50s and barely into the low 60s during the race, if there’s a lot of cloud cover like they’re calling for, I don’t see why these tires would fall off much.

Denny Hamlin said it felt like they were going quicker in the corners than they were on the straights. With minimal tire fall off outside of the ones that blew, it just doesn’t create for very good racing.

For a short track to work, you need slower corning speeds and more tire fall off. When you get neither, it makes for a tough night.

“Had good track position from our qualifying effort but passing was just impossible,” Hamlin said. “It was just a type of day where you needed to stay up front at all costs and we just couldn’t quite do it and ended up having a blown tire that set us back and we were trying to play catch up from that point. (The Next Gen car) was tough. I would like to see the racing improve overall. Some lap time variation a little bit. We’re just running around there and it’s like we’re running faster in the corners than we are on the straightaways. Just extremely hard to pass. Just seems like mechanical stuff with this Next Gen and wrecks are the X-factor in moving on so you just have to be really consistent.”

They tested here a couple of times but didn’t really work on improvements for this race in particular so I’m curious to see though that after the data from all season, will this race be better?

“It’s going to be a fight,” Hamlin acknowledged. “It’s definitely not going to be easy. I expect that passing is going to be very difficult, so track position is going to be super important. We’ve got to go in there Saturday and qualify up front and have good short-run speed in addition to the long-run speed. 

“That has hurt us pretty bad the last couple of weeks (qualifying at Las Vegas and Homestead), but knowing how difficult it’s going to be to pass, I think we’ll put a little more emphasis on that and hopefully be able to get some stage points to give ourselves a chance to advance.”

They better hope so. If not, then the cut races this postseason have been wildly unentertaining.

Bristol clearly wasn’t what we expected, the ROVAL was unchaotic for the first 103 of 109 scheduled laps and now if Martinsville is a snoozer, then that would have everyone worried about how the championship race will look next Sunday.

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Chaos?

For the other seven championship eligible drivers in the playoff field, who advances on and to what risks are they willing to take?

We know the first couple of stages could be somewhat tame. Who wants to create early enemies that could cost you later? Plus, why risk damage to your own car when you may need a clean car in the final stage?

Also, this race could be hard to pass. Tires may not fall off and if everyone is still shifting, how do you pass the car in front? Better yet, how do you get to their bumper?

Which is why the final laps could be chaotic in a way that if there’s a late race restart, watch out. Logano admitted that he wished he could have moved William Byron here in the spring. He said the restart was his only shot because once they got single file, he couldn’t catch him due to the dirty air and how these cars don’t close up as easily here anymore.

No one is making that mistake a second time? Or do they?

NASCAR has sent a message to this garage that “Boys Have At It” isn’t what they thought it was. Bubba Wallace intentionally wrecked Kyle Larson just two races ago in Vegas. He was suspended for a week. Can NASCAR really look the other way if someone tries to do the same on Sunday?

The precedent is there. What’s the difference between someone crashing a driver in Martinsville than Vegas other than speed that these cars are traveling?

You also can’t expect help late from a teammate because of the Cole Custer situation. Which as a result, penalties could be in your head late if you’re the trailing car or cars.

To win this race, you’re going to have to be aggressive in getting the lead. It’s just how far are you willing to go and what risk are you willing to take? Do you want to be Public Enemy No. 1 in Phoenix with a championship on the line?

That may be what has to be done though in order to get there.

Plus, this race has seen its fair share of chaos.

2017 saw Chase Elliott vs. Denny Hamlin when Hamlin purposely spun Elliott while battling for the lead in the closing laps. A year later it was Joey Logano and Martin Truex Jr’s turn on the final lap which saw Logano push Truex out of the way for the win. 2019 was Logano and Hamlin again, this time against each other. 2020 saw Harvick purposely push Kyle Busch aside trying to get an extra point to get his way back in. Last year was the Bowman vs. Hamlin saga. Will 2022 see another new feud occur?

We’ve had plenty this season already. Does someone push another driver over the edge on Sunday and it spill over to pit lane after the race?

A championship is on the line so with end of the race drama in 3 of the 4 years of this format for this race in this position of the playoffs, I’d say the odds are high of it.

With three spots still available to the Championship 4, we know at least two of them will be rewarded on points. So, we will have points racing too which makes this the perfect situation on Sunday.

2 drivers can only get by on wins. 1 more is -18 and has a tall task at hand. However, just 5 points separate 4th from 5th while Chase Elliott is only +11 on the cutline but just +6 on his teammate for the final spot. That’s key because if someone below the cutline wins and William Byron outscores him by 6 or more points, then he, not Elliott, advances to Phoenix.

In turn, it’s bound to cause some hurt feelings in the end. I can make a case that 5 of the 7 still trying to get to Phoenix will be running at or near the top five in the closing laps this weekend and in a pinch, someone is going to make a drastic move.

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HMS vs. Penske For The Win?

JGR, Penske, HMS have won 15 of the last 16 Martinsville races including 3 of the last 4 belonging to HMS. Penske and HMS also combined to have 3 of the top 4 qualifiers on Saturday including an all HMS front row. There’s also been 8 straight different winners of this Fall race (Earnhardt Jr., Gordon, Johnson, KyBusch, Logano, Truex, Elliott, Bowman) too. That’s an HMS win in 5 of the 8 Fall races.

Are they the favorites on Sunday?

They’ve also combined to have won 3 of the last 4 race at Martinsville including 5 of the last 8 Fall races. Chase Elliott won the pole and dominated the first 2 stages back in the spring before a pit road penalty relegated him to a top 10 instead of a top 5. Elliott won the 2020 Fall race en route to a Championship 4 appearance here. He also has four top fives in his last 7 Martinsville starts, three of them being in the top two.

William Byron picked up where Elliott left off in the spring. He finished 2nd in both stages and led the final 212 laps for the win. Byron has 5 top eight’s in his last 6 Martinsville starts including a runner-up in the playoff race in 2019, fourth and fifth respectively last year and a win in the spring race.

Elliott does start 2nd while Kyle Larson is on the pole.

If not them, maybe this is a race setup for Team Penske then.

They had the other 2 spots in the top 4 in the spring race. Austin Cindric was a respectable 11th as a rookie too. Joey Logano has pair of top five finishes came at Martinsville in 2020 and again this past spring (2nd) to go along with 8 top 10’s in his last 9 tries. Finally for Ryan Blaney, he was 4th in the spring race while also coming home runner-up in both races in 2020. He was fourth and fifth respectively in 2019. Blaney, has 6 top fives in his last 9 tries on the Virginia paperclip overall. While he was 11th in both races last year, he did sweep both stages in the spring race.

“Just go try to win Martinsville,” he continued as he now trails the cutline by 18. “That’s all we can do. Go try to run up front and have a good day, and that’s all we can ask for, just try to stay in the game and hopefully the driver doesn’t cost us anything.”

It’s ironic that the final driver into the postseason field, the only one to have not won a race this postseason in a year that has seen 19 different drivers reach victory lane during a points paying race, is likely facing a must-win situation next Sunday in Martinsville.

Blaney is now on a 44 race winless drought with his last victory coming in the 2021 regular season finale at Daytona. While he’s also winless in his career at Martinsville, it’s not like he’s been bad there either though. He starts 4th.

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Stage Points

This is going to likely determine who advances to Phoenix with championship dreams intact or not. With such a small margin between the top 4 drivers going for the 3 spots, who can get points in the 2 stages?

Qualifying is crucial to that because William Byron was on the pole last week and netted 17 stage points in the process. Denny Hamlin started 14th and scored just one. Byron entered the day -6 and left +5 over Hamlin.

What happens on Sunday?

It’s going to make or break a championship run.

Byron qualified 5th and led 212 laps en route to a dominating victory here this past spring. However, he’ll only start in 25th on Sunday. While Hamlin didn’t advance to the final round, he still starts 11th. Ryan Blaney did make the final round though and will roll off 4th.

Byron leads Hamlin by just 5 points entering the Round of 8 elimination race and 18 points clear of Blaney. However, with starting where he is, it may be hard for Byron to score any stage points on Sunday. By comparison, Ross Chastain started 27th in April and while he finished 5th, he had no stage points that night.

If Sunday looks like we think it will, then Hamlin can still get stage points in both segments while Blaney can get a top 5 finish in each himself. That could put Byron on the bad side of the cutline entering the final stage if not down to 6th.

For Blaney, he was in no mans land entering this weekend. By being 18 points arrears, it in that tricky spot to where you focus on just winning the race or do you go for stage points too. If he was likely 25 or more points back, then the plan would be simple – just win. With 18 points back, you’re not necessarily focusing on the win in this scenario because you don’t want to punt on stage points if you can possibly make the Championship 4 on points.

With Kyle Larson’s win last week, it opens up another wildcard spot to Phoenix. That means at least 2 spots will get by on points. With where Byron and Hamlin are starting, how much does this change his plans?

Blaney enters 13 points behind Hamlin for 5th, the first spot out. However, if Hamlin gets back end of the top 5 stage points and Blaney gets a top 3-4 finish in each stage and even Byron without a stage point at all, that could potentially put Blaney into the final round on points now.

So how much does this change their initial plan?

He’s finished in the top 5 in 5 of his last 7 Martinsville starts.

For Hamlin and Christopher Bell, did Toyota do enough to gain from their spring race struggles here?

“We tested Homestead. We have a baseline there so we know we aren’t going to venture too far from there. Same with Martinsville, we tested there.”

Toyota went 6-7-16-20-22-28 in April with leading 0 of the 403 laps. Did they do enough at that test to close that gap?

“Now that we’ve created some more data points we can lead into next year,” Hamlin continued. We just need a little more potential in the car to have more speed.”

They only qualified 11th (Denny Hamlin), 18th (Kyle Busch), 20th (Christopher Bell), 24th (Bubba Wallace), 26th (Ty Gibbs) and 27th (Martin Truex Jr.) on Saturday.

Bell scored a walkoff win in the Round of 12 and feels better about now than he did then.

“We ran well in the spring. I definitely feel better about winning there than I did at the Charlotte road course,” he says.

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Who Advances To The Championship 4?

Joey Logano is the only one who still knows that he’ll be racing for a championship next week in Phoenix. Ross Chastain (+19), Chase Elliott (+11) and William Byron (+5) are each above the cutline. Does anyone bump them out?

Denny Hamlin (-5), Ryan Blaney (-18), Christopher Bell (-33) and Chase Briscoe (-44) will ty to do so. Can they?

Christopher Bell’s win at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course was the sixth-time in the ‘elimination-style’ Playoff Era (2014-2022) that a driver below the cut line in points to advance to the next round has won his way into the next round. Bell entered the Round of 12 elimination race 45 points down. He was facing a must win and did just that.

Kyle Larson was +18 and Daniel Suarez were each +12 and both were bumped out via Bell’s win and Chase Briscoe’s (-12) pursuit.

Below are the five other times the Playoff magic has occurred.

In 2014, heading into the Round of 12 elimination race at Talladega Superspeedway, Brad Keselowski was 10th in the Playoff standings and won the race earning his spot in the Round of 8.

In 2014, heading into the Round of 8 elimination race at Phoenix Raceway, Kevin Harvick was eighth in the Playoff standings and won the race earning his spot in the Championship 4 Round. Harvick would then win again the following week at Homestead-Miami Speedway in the season finale to pocket his first career Cup championship.

In 2015, heading into the Round of 16 elimination race at Dover Motor Speedway, Kevin Harvick was ranked 15th in the Playoff standings and won the race earning his spot in the Round of 12.

In 2019, heading into the Round of 8 elimination race at Phoenix Raceway, Denny Hamlin was fifth in the Playoff standings and won the race earning his spot in the Championship 4 Round.

In 2020, heading into the Round of 8 elimination race at Martinsville Speedway, Chase Elliott was fifth in the Playoff standings tied with his Hendrick Motorsports teammate Alex Bowman in fourth and won the race earning his spot in the Championship 4 Round. Elliott would then go on to win at Phoenix Raceway the following weekend and take home his first career NASCAR Cup Series title.

Does it happen again on Sunday?

Chastain was 5th here this past spring and has two straight runner-up finishes on the season. He also has 5 top 7’s in the last 7 weeks at that. I feel like he’s safe so long as he can accumulate enough stage points early. Elliott won the pole and dominated the first two stages back in the spring before a pit road penalty relegated him to a Top-10 instead of a Top-5. Elliott won the 2020 Fall race en route to a Championship 4 appearance here. He also has four Top-5’s in his last seven Martinsville starts, three of them being in the top two.

Byron picked up where Elliott left off in the spring. He finished second in both stages and led the final 212 laps for the win. Byron has five Top-8’s in his last six Martinsville starts including a runner-up in the playoff race in 2019, fourth and fifth respectively last year and a win in the spring race.

They’ve won three of the last four at Martinsville including five of the last eight Fall races there at that. However, Elliott has just two top 10’s in his last 8 races including finishes of 32nd, 1st, 20th, 21st and 14th respectively the last 5 weeks. Byron has finishes of 12th, 16th, 13th and 12th the last 4 weeks himself with just 1 top 5 finish in the last 26 points paying races.

Can they all the sudden turn it on this Sunday?

Four of his last five Martinsville finishes for Hamlin have seen him come home 11th or worse (28th in the spring).

Blaney was fourth in the spring race while also coming home runner-up in both races in 2020. He was fourth and fifth respectively in 2019. Blaney, has six Top-5s in his last nine tries on the Virginia paperclip overall. While he was 11th in both races last year, he did sweep both stages in the spring race. 4 of his last 6 races on the season have seen him finish 16th or worse.

Bell has three Top 8’s, two of which are Top 5’s, in four Truck Series starts at Martinsville and was seventh and 20th the last two April races in the Cup Series. For Briscoe, he was 9th in the spring but has 1 top 5 on short tracks this season though too.

So who makes it in?

I think Hamlin’s starting spot is going to help him pass Byron and that Elliott wins the race outright. It keeps Joe Gibbs Racing perfect with having a driver in the final round in all 9 years now.

Top Quote

“When NASCAR decided on the schedule, it was no accident that Martinsville was going to be the race to get into the Championship 4,” Chastain said. “We’ve seen year-over-year, it produces some crazy races. I don’t expect anything different. It’s another place that I am looking for a little bit of speed at. 

“It was challenging to pass in the spring, but we were a car that went from around 27th and drove to fifth, but it took me all race to get there. It’s been high on my list to be better there. We tested there, and I am still looking for more speed.”

Top Stat

The last driver to win from pit stall No. 1 at Martinsville was Jimmie Johnson in April 2013.