Eric picked up a $117 win via Kyle Larson last Sunday in Homestead while Greg and CJ didn’t capitalize on the Hendrick Motorsports drivers’ dominating day. Now we head to the Round of 8 finale at the Martinsville (VA) Speedway.

Prime Sports NASCAR weekly preview show here

Xfinity 500 Favorites:
Hendrick Motorsports
They’ve won three of the last four at Martinsville including five of the last eight Fall races there at that. Chase Elliott won the pole and dominated the first two stages back in the spring before a pit road penalty relegated him to a Top-10 instead of a Top-5. Elliott won the 2020 Fall race en route to a Championship 4 appearance here. He also has four Top-5’s in his last seven Martinsville starts, three of them being in the top two.
William Byron picked up where Elliott left off in the spring. He finished second in both stages and led the final 212 laps for the win. Byron has five Top-8’s in his last six Martinsville starts including a runner-up in the playoff race in 2019, fourth and fifth respectively last year and a win in the spring race.
Another one to watch for them is Alex Bowman. He never considers himself a great Martinsville racer, but Bowman finished sixth in both races in 2020 and the won last year’s playoff race. Bowman, has four Top-7’s in nine tries on the paperclip with HMS.
Team Penske
They had the other two spots in the Top-4 in the spring race. Austin Cindric was a respectable 11th as a rookie too. Joey Logano has pair of Top-5 finishes came at Martinsville in 2020 and again this past spring (2nd) to go along with eight Top-10’s in his last nine tries. Finally for Ryan Blaney, he was fourth in the spring race while also coming home runner-up in both races in 2020. He was fourth and fifth respectively in 2019. Blaney, has six Top-5s in his last nine tries on the Virginia paperclip overall. While he was 11th in both races last year, he did sweep both stages in the spring race.
Martin Truex Jr.
He’s won three of the last six Martinsville races. The only ones he didn’t win was the last two Fall races to where he led 129 laps in the Fall of 2020 and was fourth last year. Truex, has seven top-5’s in his last 10 tries on the Virginia paperclip.
Kyle Busch
Busch, has 13 Top-10 finishes in his last 14 at Martinsville including a runner-up last Halloween.
Xfinity 500 Sleepers
Ross Chastain
Finished fifth this past spring there.
Christopher Bell
He has three Top 8’s, two of which are Top 5’s, in four Truck Series starts at Martinsville and was seventh and 20th the last two April races in the Cup Series.
Austin Dillon
Finished third in the spring race so worth a look.
Aric Almirola
He’s not had a Top-5 ever on this track, but was 20th and sixth last year respectively and eighth in the spring.
Brad Keselowski
Keselowski has six Top-5 finishes in his last eight starts in Martinsville including 10 in his last 13 overall. He has four Top-3’s in his last seven there too.
Xfinity 500 Fades
Denny Hamlin
Four of his last five Martinsville finishes have seen him come home 11th or worse (28th in the spring).
Kyle Larson
Larson, has one Top-5 (5th place last year) in his last 10 Martinsville tries including 11 of his 15 tries there seeing him finish outside the Top-15.
Kevin Harvick
He’s had just two Top-5s in his last 20 Martinsville starts including 15th and 17th in 2020, ninth and 12th last year and 14th in the spring.
Xfinity 500 Top Stats
• JGR, Penske, HMS have won 15 of the last 16 Martinsville races including three of the last four belonging to HMS.
• There’s been eight straight different winners of this Fall race (Earnhardt Jr., Gordon, Johnson, KyBusch, Logano, Truex, Elliott, Bowman).
• That’s an HMS win in five of the eight Fall races.
• Four of the last six winners all have come from a Top-5 starting spot
• 11 of the last 13 started in the top 10 at that.

Xfinity 500 Live Trends
• The eventual race winner had a Top-5 finish in the first stage every year minus last Fall.
• William Byron finished second in both stages this past spring.
• This year, the eventual race winner has finished in the Top-5 in Stage 1 just twice in the last 16 races with three of the last five of them not even scoring any points.
• Stage 2 has seen the eventual winner score stage points in 11 of the last 19 races run. However, just once in those 10 races did they finish better than fourth though too.
• If you want to win, you better find yourself in the top two or three by the end of the second stage. Since we began stage racing in 2017, the eventual winner has finished either first (4 times), second (3 times) or third (twice) in nine of the 11 second stages.
• Starting spots on short tracks this year for the eventual race winners: sixth (Phoenix), 13th for both Richmond races, fifth (Martinsville spring), fourth (Dover), fifth (Loudon), 20th (Bristol).
• In three of the seven short track races run this season, the driver to lead the most laps won the race in the end.
• In four of the seven races, those laps all occurred in the final stage. In fact, Chris Buescher at Bristol is the only winner to have led more than 19 laps in the first stage. The race winner is better to be found in Stage 2.
Eight of the 11 races under the stage era here saw the driver to lead the most laps win the race in the end.

Race Odds

6-1…C Elliott

7-1…D Hamlin

9-1…W Byron

10-1…R Blaney, J Logano and M Truex Jr.

12-1…C Bell, R Chastain and K Larson

15-1…Kyle B and K Harvick

20-1…C Briscoe

25-1…T Reddick

30-1…AJ Allmendinger and B Keselowski

40-1…A Almirola, C Buescher, A Dillon and D Wallace

50-1…A Cindric, N Gragson and D Suarez

100-1…C Custer, T Gibbs and E Jones

250-1…J Haley, M McDowell and R Stenhouse Jr

500-1…H Burton

NOTE: Each analyst has a weekly wagering limit of $100.

NOTE: The weekly wagering limits will increase $100 for each playoff round ending with a $500 wagering limit for the Championship Four race.

XFINITY 500 PICKS: RACE 35

Greg DePalma

D Hamlin…7-1…$100 ($700)

W Byron…9-1…$90 ($810)

R Blaney…10-1…$90 ($900)

C Bell…12-1…$35 ($420)

R Chastain…12-1…$35 ($420)

AJ Allmendinger…30-1…$30 ($900) 

A Dillon…40-1…$20 ($800)

RECORD: 17 for 34

TOTAL: -921

Eric Smith

C Elliott…6-1…$150 ($900)

D Hamlin…7-1…$99 ($693)

J Logano…10-1…$70 ($700)

Kyle B…15-1…$27 ($405)

C Briscoe…20-1…$24 ($480) 

AJ Allmendinger…30-1…$15 ($450) 

B Keselowski…30-1…$15 ($450) 

RECORD: 18 for 34

TOTAL: -1,367

CJ Radune

C Elliott…6-1…$85 ($510)

D Hamlin…7-1…$70 ($490)

W Byron…9-1…$60 ($540)

R Blaney…10-1…$50 ($500)

M Truex Jr…10-1…$50 ($500)

R Chastain…12-1…$40 ($480)

C Briscoe…20-1…$25 ($500) 

B Keselowski…30-1…$20 ($600) 

RECORD: 19 for 34

TOTAL: -1,685

ARCHIVES

DIXIE VODKA 400 PICKS: RACE 34

DIXIE VODKA 400 WINNER: Kyle Larson

Greg DePalma

D Hamlin…7-1…$100 ($700) …7^th  

T Reddick…8-1…$70 ($560) …35^th

R Blaney…9-1…$55 ($495) …17^th

C Bell…12-1…$50 ($600) …11^th

W Byron…12-1…$44 ($528) …12^th

K Harvick…18-1…$25 ($450) …8^th

C Briscoe…25-1…$30 ($700) …36^th  

E Jones…50-1…$8 ($400) …30^th

M McDowell…50-1…$8 ($400) …16^th

J Haley…100-1…$8 ($800) …28^th

C Custer…500-1…$2 ($1000) …24^th

RECORD: 0 for 1

TOTAL: -400

CJ Radune

D Hamlin…7-1…$61 ($427) …7^th  

R Blaney…9-1…$50 ($450) …17^th  

Kyle B…10-1…$45 ($450) …9^th

R Chastain…10-1…$45 ($450) …2^nd  

C Elliott…10-1…$45 ($450) …14^th

C Bell…12-1…$35 ($420) …11^th

W Byron…12-1…$35 ($420) …12^th

M Truex Jr…12-1…$35 ($420) …6^th  

B Wallace…20-1…$22 ($440) …DNR

C Briscoe…25-1…$18 ($450) …36^th    

E Jones…50-1…$9 ($450) …30^th

RECORD: 0 for 1

TOTAL: -378

Eric Smith

D Hamlin…7-1…$70 ($490) …7^th  

T Reddick…8-1…$59 ($472) …35^th  

R Blaney…9-1…$47 ($423) …17^th   

Kyle B…10-1…$42 ($420) …9^th  

K Larson…10-1…$47 ($470) …1^st

J Logano…10-1…$44 ($440) …18^th

W Byron…12-1…$34 ($408) …12^th

C Briscoe…25-1…$17 ($425) …36^th      

N Gragson…30-1…$14 ($420) …25^th   

E Jones…50-1…$10 ($500) …30^th

A Almirola…100-1…$5 ($500) …21^st

C Buescher…100-1…$5 ($500) …13^th

J Haley…100-1…$6 ($600) …28^th

RECORD: 1 for 1

TOTAL: +117