Chevrolet Power

Chevrolet has won each of the 5 road course races this season and the final 6 of 2021 for 11 straight wins on these tracks. Factor in the 2019 race at Watkins Glen (2 races in 2019) and the 2 races (Daytona, Charlotte) in 2020 and you get Chevy scoring 15 wins in the last 16 road course races in general.

Can they end up on top on Sunday afternoon in Charlotte?

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Rookies

I don’t think anyone expected both Austin Cindric and Chase Briscoe to be in this position right now for at least 1 of them to advance to the Round of 8. But here we are. Cindric and Briscoe are each tied heading to the final race of the second round and before William Byron’s penalty was rescinded, they were tied for the 8th and final spot. Now they’re tied for 9th with 1 race remaining to get back in.

Cindric has 1 top 10 all playoffs. That occurred with his 9th place run last Sunday in Talladega. His playoff finishes are 16th, 12th, 29th, 15th and 9th respectively.

Briscoe has 2 top 10’s all playoffs and ironically enough, both have occurred this round. He was 5th in Texas and 10th in Talladega. Prior to that though? He didn’t have a top 10 scored in 14 straight races. That’s right, from the Coca-Cola 600 on May 29 and leading into Texas a few weeks ago, he had no top 10 finishes with 8 of his 14 finishes being 20th or worse.

Now, each have a shot at advancing. How wild is that. Can they get it done on Sunday?

Cindric has finished 8th, 5th, 7th, 2nd and 13th on 5 road courses in 2022. Briscoe has been a good road racer overall but not necessarily this season.

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Trackhouse Racing

Trackhouse Racing was formed in 2020. They bought out Chip Ganassi Racing that summer and would take over the keys to the whole operation that Fall. Now, 2 years later, they’re on the verge of having potentially not just 1, but both drivers into the Round of 8 in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs.

Ross Chastain brought his No. 1 Chevrolet home 4th in last Sunday’s YellaWood 500 at the Talladega Superspeedway while his teammate Daniel Suarez was 8th in his No. 99 Chevrolet. They now sit +28 and +12 above the cutline in the standings with 1 race left in the second round.

Chastain has 3 top 7 finishes in the last 4 weeks while Suarez has a pair of top 10’s in that span. But they’re doing what they have to do to survive. Suarez had 7 stage points in Sunday’s race and Chastain 5.

They’re finishing races and not making mistakes which is why they’re here with a chance to have 2 of the final 8 spots left eligible to win this year’s championship at this time next week.

To make matters better, we end the round on a road course. Trackhouse has won 2 of the 5 road course races run this season.

Suarez won Sonoma, led every lap of the 1st stage in COTA, was 5th in Road America and lined up 5th on the final restart in Indy and finished 5th in Watkins Glen. Chastain was 1st in COTA this year, 7th in Sonoma and 4th in Road America. He crossed the finish line 2nd at Indy before his penalty was levied and only 21st in Watkins Glen. I still like him on these tracks.

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AJ Allmendinger

He’s won the 3 Xfinity Series races on this track. He won the Indy road course in 2021. He was in the hunt to win there again in July. Allmendinger was in the top 3 coming to the finish in COTA. He had a top 10 car in Sonoma. He was 7th here in a Cup car in 2018.

Can Allmendinger steal a win on Sunday and become the 5th non playoff driver to win a playoff race this postseason?

He’s won 3 Xfinity Series races in 2022 and all were on road courses.

He’s worth watching.

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Who Advances On? Surprise Winner?

5 of the last 8 years have seen someone new bump their ways back in on the final race of the second round. It didn’t happen however the last 2 years though. Will it on Sunday?

The largest margin someone made up without winning though was 19 points. 2 of the 4 drivers below the cutline are within that margin with Chase Briscoe and Austin Cindric tied for 9th at -12.

Christopher Bell (-45) would be historic if he could get in.

Kevin Harvick was -9 last year but didn’t advance on.

The other factor is, we very well could see a non-playoff winner. Trends say it won’t happen as just three non-Playoff drivers have won the sixth race in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs:

• Jeff Gordon (2005) won the Playoff race at Martinsville Speedway he was ranked 15th in the series standings at the time of the win.
• Clint Bowyer (2011) won the Playoff race at Talladega Superspeedway he was ranked 13th in the series standings at the time of the win.
• Jamie McMurray (2013) won the Playoff race at Talladega Superspeedway he was ranked 14th in the series standings at the time of the win.

As you can see, it hasn’t happened since the new format was adopted in 2014 and none of the previous four were at Charlotte on the ROVAL. So, does that likely means the winner on Sunday will be among the 12 drivers left in the playoff field?

4 of the 5 races run so far in the postseason haven’t been won by a championship eligible either.

Also, look at what the drivers not in the playoff field have done on road courses this season too.

AJ Allmendinger won Indy last year, was in the top 3 on the final lap in COTA, was in the top 10 late in the race at Sonoma, finished 9th in Road America, 7th at Indy again in July and runner-up at Watkins Glen. On top of that, he has 3 straight Xfinity Series wins on this track as well.

Chris Buescher’s last 4 road course finishes read: 2nd (Sonoma), 6th (Road America), 10th (Indianapolis) and 9th (Watkins Glen).

Michael McDowell is a road racer by nature and has 4 top 10’s on them this season including a 3rd in Sonoma and 6th the last time out in Watkins Glen.

As far as the drivers still in the playoffs, you have to look at the Chevrolet cars as the favorites among them. Chevy is a perfect 5-for-5 this season on road courses and have won 11 straight races on them.

Kyle Larson has 2 top 4 finishes in his last 3 road course starts on the season including a Watkins Glen victory. He’s the defending race winner here.

Chase Elliott lined up on the front row in each of the last 2 road course races on the final restart as well as finishing 2nd in the one prior at Road America. He’s won 2 of the last 3 ROVAL races.

William Byron was sixth, sixth and 11th in his last three ROVAL starts. The only thing is, he’s not had a top 5 in any of the five road course races this season with a best result of 9th. So while he can be solid, no top 5’s here and no top 5’s on road courses in general in 2022 leave him on a fade list for a win.

Daniel Suarez won at Sonoma led every lap of the 1st stage in COTA, was 5th in Road America and lined up 5th on the final restart in Indy and finished 5th in Watkins Glen.

Ross Chastain won at COTA, was 7th in Sonoma and 4th in Road America. He also crossed the finish line 2nd at Indy before his penalty was levied and only 21st in Watkins Glen. I still like him on these tracks.

The Fords are the next best.

Austin Cindric was 8th, 5th, 7th, 2nd and 13th on 5 road courses in 2022. Ryan Blaney is a previous winner here and has finished 8th, 5th and 9th respectively since. Blaney also has a pair of 6th place finished on road courses this season as well. Joey Logano has had a top 10 in all four ROVAL starts including a runner-up in 2020. He was 6th in Indy and 3rd in Watkins Glen too.

Chase Briscoe hasn’t had great stats on road courses this season but he’s a good road racer.

The Toyota’s have work to do.

Denny Hamlin was 18th, 31st, 17th, 14th and 20th on road races this season. Christopher Bell was 3rd, 27th, 18th, 12th and 8th in the same races himself.

Bell won the Daytona ROVAL a year ago, and on the Charlotte ROVAL, he was eighth while Hamlin was 12th, 19th, 15th and 5th in his 4 ROVAL races.