Eric picked up his 17th win of the season with nailing 15-1 Tyler Reddick to win Sunday’s race last weekend in Texas. He had a good hunch on him and it paid off as being the only one to capitalize on the unlikely triumph.

Now we go to the most unexpected event of the season in Talladega.

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The ultimate wildcard of the 2022 playoffs is here but in saying that, past stats show that maybe this race isn’t much of a wildcard after all. At Talladega, just 8 times since 1995 has a driver earned their first or second career wins there. Granted, the last 2 races there this stat occurred, but if you take a step back and look at the grander picture, you’d see that an unlikely winner isn’t all that likely.

Bubba Wallace’s win in last year’s race was the 12th driver to pick up his 1st career win at Talladega joining Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (2017), Brad Keselowski (2009), Brian Vickers (2006), Ken Schrader (1988), Phil Parsons (1988), Davey Allison (1987), Bobby Hillin Jr. (1986), Ron Bouchard (1981), Lennie Pond (1978), Dick Brooks (1973) and Richard Brickhouse (1969). As you can see, it was more prevalent in the 80’s than now.

Since the win and advance format was introduced to the sport in 2014, the playoff race has always been won by an existing playoff driver with the exception of last year. They’re 7-for-8 and as you can see in the picks above, Wallace (stats above) is the 1 of 8 non-playoff drivers to win but it’s also not like he’s a fluke on these types of tracks.

Just 6 times has a non-playoff driver won the NASCAR Cup Series’ playoff race at Talladega. It first occurred in 2005 with Dale Jarrett. It happened again a year later (2006) with Brian Vickers. Then we saw it twice in 2009 and again in 2013 with Jamie McMurray as well as 2011 with Clint Bowyer and last year with Bubba Wallace. Only Wallace is in Cup anymore.

The last four Talladega playoff winners were outside the top eight in the playoff standings entering Talladega including Wallace not even being in the playoffs last year.

There’s also the manufacturers race. Ford has won 10 of the last 14 Talladega races and should be a favorite. However, Chevrolet has won 4 of the 5 superspeedway races this season and have done so with different drivers (Byron, Elliott at Atlanta, Chastain at Talladega, Dillon at Daytona).
Toyota remarkably has won the last 2 Fall races though but has just 3 wins in the last 27 Talladega races.

YellaWood 500 Top Stats
· The last 2 winners each started 19th. Starting spots of winners for superspeedway’s race this (5th, 21st Daytona, 19th Talladega). Atlanta was 12th and 1st.
· 13 of the previous 14 races prior to Wallace’s win last year were won by the top 6 Rows.
· Only 2 pole winners (Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2017, Denny Hamlin 2020) won in the last 35 Cup races at Talladega. Those are the only 2 front row starters to win since the playoff race of 2011 (22 races). Previously, 5 of the 13 races before were won by front row starters.
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· Just 1 in the last 5 Talladega races has the eventual winner scored stage points in the opening stage.
· However, in 3 of the last 4 races, the winner actually finished 2nd in Stage 2. Chastain finished 9th in the 2nd stage back in April. Furthermore, since 2017 (the start of stage race) we’ve had 10 races at Talladega. The eventual race winner finished 2nd in the 2nd stage 5 times.
· In the first stage, they had 5 top 4 finishes in the first 6 tries but since? Just 1 top 10 (6th in Spring 2020).
· For Daytona/Talladega this year, the race winner scored 0 points in Stage 1.
· For Daytona/Talladega this year, the race winner was 6th, 9th, 10th respectively in Stage 2.
· Neither race winner this year led any laps in the first 2 stages. Austin Cindric led all 21 of his laps in the Daytona 500 in the final stage. Chastain led just the final lap here in April while Austin Dillon led all 10 of his laps in the Coke Zero Sugar 400 in the final stage too.
· 2 of the 4 superspeedway races last year saw the race winner lead only the final lap (McDowell Daytona 500, Brad Keselowski here in April 2021). Bubba Wallace only led the final 5 laps here last Fall as well meaning each of the last 3 Talladega races did the winner lead laps only in the end.

Race Odds

12-1…R Blaney, W Byron, C Elliott, D Hamlin, J Logano and K Larson

15-1…R Chastain, A Cindric and T Reddick

18-1…C Bell, Kyle B and B Wallace

20-1…A Bowman, K Harvick, B Keselowski and M Truex Jr.

25-1…A Dillon and D Suarez

30-1…A Almirola, C Briscoe, C Buescher and E Jones

40-1…M McDowell and R Stenhouse Jr.

50-1…T Gibbs and Haley

75-1…C Custer

100-1…N Gragson, Hemric and C Lajoie

200-1…H Burton, T Dillon and T Gilliland

500-1…L Cassill

NOTE: Each analyst has a weekly wagering limit of $100.

NOTE: The weekly wagering limits will increase $100 for each playoff round ending with a $500 wagering limit for the Championship Four race.

YELLAWOOD 500 PICKS: RACE 31

Eric Smith

R Blaney…12-1…$40 ($480)

W Byron…12-1…$30 ($360)

D Hamlin…12-1…$30 ($360)

J Logano…12-1…$40 ($480)

A Cindric…15-1…$22 ($330)

T Reddick…15-1…$22 ($330)

D Wallace…18-1…$18 ($324)

B Keselowski…20-1…$21 ($420) 

A Dillon…25-1…$14 ($350) 

A Almirola…30-1…$10 ($300) 

C Buescher…30-1…$13 ($390) 

E Jones…30-1…$13 ($390) 

M McDowell…40-1…$8 ($320) 

R Stenhouse Jr…40-1…$8 ($320) 

J Haley…50-1…$5 ($250) 

C Lajoie…100-1…$2 ($200) 

H Burton…200-1…$2 ($400) 

T Dillon…200-1…$2 ($400) 

RECORD: 17 for 30

TOTAL: -484

Greg DePalma

R Blaney…12-1…$50 ($600)

C Elliott…12-1…$40 ($480)

D Hamlin…12-1…$50 ($600)

C Bell…18-1…$25 ($480) 

A Bowman…20-1…$20 ($400) 

K Harvick…20-1…$20 ($400) 

B Keselowski…20-1…$35 ($700) 

M McDowell…40-1…$15 ($600) 

R Stenhouse Jr…40-1…$15 ($600) 

J Haley…50-1…$10 ($500) 

N Gragson…100-1…$5 ($500) 

C Lajoie…100-1…$10 ($1000) 

T Dillon…200-1…$3 ($600) 

L Cassill…500-1…$2 ($1000) 

RECORD: 15 for 30

TOTAL: -521

CJ Radune

R Blaney…12-1…$30 ($360)

C Elliott…12-1…$27 ($324)

D Hamlin…12-1…$27 ($324)

J Logano…12-1…$27 ($324)

K Larson…12-1…$27 ($324)

R Chastain…15-1…$24 ($360)

A Cindric…15-1…$24 ($360)

C Bell…18-1…$21 ($378)

D Wallace…18-1…$21 ($378)

A Bowman…20-1…$18 ($360) 

B Keselowski…20-1…$18 ($360) 

A Dillon…25-1…$15 ($375) 

E Jones…30-1…$12 ($360) 

M McDowell…40-1…$9 ($360) 

RECORD: 17 for 30

TOTAL: -1,113

ARCHIVES

AUTO TRADER ECHOPARK 500 PICKS: RACE 30

AUTO TRADER ECHOPARK 500 WINNER: Tyler Reddick

Greg DePalma

D Hamlin…6-1…$80 ($480) …10^th  

C Bell…10-1…$50 ($500) …34^th

R Blaney…10-1…$40 ($400) …4^th

W Byron…12-1…$35 ($420) …7^th

R Chastain…12-1…$25 ($300) …13^th

K Harvick…15-1…$20 ($300) …19^th

J Logano…15-1…$20 ($300) …2^nd

A Bowman…30-1…$20 ($600) …29^th  

C Briscoe…100-1…$5 ($500) …5^th  

B Keselowski…100-1…$5 ($500) …8^th   

RECORD: 0 for 1

TOTAL: -300

Eric Smith

K Larson…6-1…$53 ($318) …9^th   

C Bell…10-1…$50 ($500) …34^th  

R Blaney…10-1…$41 ($410) …4^th  

W Byron…12-1…$30 ($360) …7^th

R Chastain…12-1…$30 ($360) …13^th

J Logano…15-1…$30 ($450) …2^nd

T Reddick…15-1…$22 ($330) …1^st  

A Bowman…30-1…$15 ($450) …29^th   

A Almirola…50-1…$7 ($350) …24^th   

C Briscoe…100-1…$4 ($400) …5^th    

A Dillon…100-1…$4 ($400) …17^th   

E Jones…100-1…$8 ($800) …6^th  

B Keselowski…100-1…$4 ($400) …8^th     

C Custer…200-1…$2 ($400) …35^th  

RECORD: 1 for 1

TOTAL: +52

CJ Radune

K Larson…6-1…$55 ($330) …9^th    

C Elliott…7-1…$50 ($350) …32^nd  

Kyle B…8-1…$40 ($320) …36^th

C Bell…10-1…$33 ($330) …34^th    

R Blaney…10-1…$33 ($330) …4^th   

W Byron…12-1…$26 ($312) …7^th

K Harvick…15-1…$22 ($330) …18^th

J Logano…15-1…$22 ($330) …2^nd

A Bowman…30-1…$11 ($330) …29^th   

D Suarez…40-1…$8 ($320) …12^th  

RECORD: 0 for 1

TOTAL: -300