Who wins today’s Xfinity Series race at Texas, my picks with whom to bet on and full race details with start time and lineup

P&Q is now done for the opening race of the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series playoffs. The entire top 11 of the starting lineup for today’s Andy’s Frozen Custard 300 (3:30 p.m. ET, USA, PRN) belongs to playoff drivers. A caveat is John Hunter Nemechek in the No. 18 Toyota who starts 4th. He’s not in the drivers’ championship but the car is in the owner’s race.

Nemechek was in a similar situation last year to where the No. 54 Toyota was too. He’d win the race at Texas that day.

Starting Lineup:


3 pm: Driver Intros

3:30 pm: Invocation

3:31 pm: National Anthem

3:38 pm: Command

3:49 pm: Green Flag

Top Trends

  • Tyler Reddick’s spring race win was the first time the winner started in the top 5 in the last 4 races.
    • However, in general, 17 of the last 21 races at Texas were won by a starter coming from the top 3 Rows.
  • 9 of the last 10 races saw a different winner. Kyle Busch is the only repeat winner.
    • Erik Jones (2017), Ryan Blaney, Cole Custer (2018), Kyle Busch, Christopher Bell (2019), Austin Cindric, Harrison Burton (2020), Busch, John Hunter Nemechek (2021) and Tyler Reddick (2022) have won in this time frame.
  • 4 of the last 5 Fall races were won by JGR and by 4 different drivers (Jones, Bell, Burton, Nemechek).
  • Chevy went 1-2-3-4-5-7 this past May.
  • Stage 1 has seen the eventual race winner not score stage points in 2 of the last 3 races They were 1st or 2nd in the first 6 races, however.
  • 10 of the last 11 races saw the eventual race winner finish in the top 6 in Stage 2 including 4 top 2’s in the last 5 (1st, 4th, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st, 4th).

Top Bets

  • Noah Gragson (+350) He’s won each of the last 3 races and has 3 top 7’s in his last 4 Texas starts including a runner-up in this race in 2020 and 3rd last year.
  • John Hunter Nemechek (+500) The defending race winner starts 4th and has 4 top 10’s in as many Xfinity Series Texas starts including 3 of which in the top 4. He also has 3 top 7’s in his last 6 Truck Series starts here too including a 2021 win.
  • Brandon Jones (+750) He starts on the pole and can continue the trend of different winners for JGR too. He has 4 top 10’s in his last 6 Texas starts and comes in after a runner-up finish at Bristol last Friday night.
  • Austin Hill (+1400) Was 5th in May, was 2nd and 4th in his final 2 Truck Series starts here too and starts 9th.

Be Wary:

  • Justin Allgaier (+350): 5 top 6’s in his last 6 Texas starts. He was 4th in May, starts 6th and has 4 top 4’s in his last 6 starts on the season too. However, he’s 0-for-24 in the Xfinity Series, 0-for-4 in Cup and 0-for-1 in the Truck Series at Texas. For the top odds, I’d punt for now.
  • Ty Gibbs (+500) Was 12th last year and hasn’t won a race since Michigan.
  • AJ Allmendinger (+800) 3 top 10’s in 3 Texas starts and 8 straight top 7’s on the season, however, he’s not had a top 5 ever here and that includes 20 Cup starts too with his only wins in 2022 coming on road courses at that.
  • Sam Mayer (+1000) I don’t see his 1st career win coming on Saturday. He has 1 top 5 inhis last 11 starts on the season.
  • Josh Berry (+1200) 1 top 5 in his last 9 on the season and no top 5’s yet on Texas either.

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