NASCAR Pre-Race Media: Texas Track Trends, Race Preview, etc

TRACK: Texas Motor Speedway (1.5 mile oval) DISTANCE: 334 Laps — STAGE 1: 105 Laps, STAGE 2: 105 Laps, FINAL STAGE: 124 Laps, MILES (501 Miles)

  • Look for the winner to come from the top 6 Rows. 18 of the last 20 and 20 of the last 23 Texas races were won from a top 10 starter.
  • All but two races in the stage era has a driver not won a stage and the race itself. In fact, six of the last eight Texas races saw the eventual winner win or finish second in the second stage at that.
  • 4 times has the winner of the Cup race at Texas gone on to win the championship. 2007 – Jimmie Johnson, 2011- Tony Stewart, 2013 – Jimmie Johnson, 2021 – Kyle Larson.
  • 4 times has a non playoff driver won this race – 2006 Tony Stewart, 2014 Jimmie Johnson, 2015 Jimmie Johnson, 2020 Kyle Busch.
  • 5 of the last 8 1st stage winners have finished in the top 3.
  • 3 of the last 5 2nd stage winners have won the race outright in the end
  • 1st time this race has kicked off the Round of 12.


FORT WORTH, TEXAS – MAY 22: Ryan Blaney, driver of the #12 Menards/Wrangler Ford, takes the checkered flag to win the NASCAR Cup Series All-Star Race at Texas Motor Speedway on May 22, 2022 in Fort Worth, Texas. (Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images)

Favorites

Kyle Larson (+600)

He won the All-Star race as well as the playoff race a year ago too. Larson has 4 top 4 finishes on intermediate tracks this season too and 4 top 8 finishes in his last 7 starts on the season.

Christopher Bell (+1000)

He finished third in this very race the last two years to go along with 5 top 8 finishes in his last 7 tries on intermediate tracks this season. He’s the only driver to score a top 5 in all three playoff races thus far too.

Ryan Blaney (+1000)

Blaney has a top 12 finish in all but one Texas start. In fact, he has 6 top eights in his last 8 tries and the only ones that he doesn’t, he led 145 laps in spring race in 2019 before an engine problem and leading 150 laps and sweeping both stages in July 2020 before a late race fluke caution. He won the All-Star race this past spring. Larson did so last year and turned that into a Fall race win too.

Joey Logano (+1500)

He’s had nine top 10 finishes in his last 11 Texas starts. On intermediate tracks, Logano has finished 4th in each of his last 2 tries including having 4 top 5’s on them this season.

Sleepers

Kevin Harvick (+1500)

Harvick has 13 top 10 finishes in his last 14 starts in Texas. Among those are four top two finishes in his last eight starts there. In the Fall race, he’s won three of the last five years. He was 5th a year ago. However, which Harvick shows up? He also has finishes of 12th, 20th, 33rd, 36th and 10th the last 5 weeks too and no longer in the playoffs.

Alex Bowman (+3000)

He has a pair of fifth place finishes in 2 of the last 3 Fall Texas races and 4 top 10 finishes in his last 6 intermediate track starts this season.

Aric Almirola (+5000)

With Stewart-Haas Racing, Almirola has four top 10 finishes in six tries.

Brad Keselowski (+10000)

He has 3 straight top 10 finishes including improvement in each. He was ninth, then sixth, then fourth…then first? He finished in the top 10 at Darlington a few races ago and led 109 laps last Saturday night in Bristol.

Erik Jones (+10000)

A very solid sleeper play here. Jones, has six top 10’s in his last seven tries at Texas including three fourth place runs in his last six overall. Also, in five Xfinity Series tries on the 1.5 mile track, he’s finished in the top four in all including two wins. He just won on an intermediate track in the last round at Darlington.


Who To Fade?

Denny Hamlin (+600)

This surprisingly isn’t one of his strongest tracks. Yes he won the spring race in 2019 and was runner-up this past year in the All-Star race, however, those are his only top 5 finishes in his last 9 Texas tries. 5 of his last 9 finishes have been 21st or worse at that. Too steep if you ask me.

Chase Elliott (+700)

He’s not had a top five in any of his last nine Texas starts including being 12th and 20th in 2020 and 13th and 32nd a year prior. He was 7th last year. 3 of his last 6 intermediate track finishes have seen him finish 29th or worse.

Kyle Busch (+850)

Busch has 5 straight top 10’s at Texas. 6 of his last 7 starts have seen him finish in the top 10 in the LoneStar State. However, he has finished outside the top 20 in 3 of his last 4 starts on intermediate tracks and hasn’t had a top 5 finish since June 5. Busch also has finished 26th or worse in 5 of his last 7 races. Now that he’s no longer in the playoffs, I wonder if those stats will struggle to improve. Odds are far to low for me to bite on him this week.

William Byron (+1200)

He was 0-for-6 in terms of top fives at Texas before last year. He has 1 top 5 all season on intermediate tracks. While he’s a stellar play for a top 10 finish, for an outright win however? +1200 seems a little low here too.

Martin Truex Jr. (+1200)

Just 1 top 5 in his last 9 Texas starts and that includes both All-Star races. He’s not finished better than 6th on any of his starts on intermediate track this season either.

Daniel Suarez (+4000)

Just 1 top 15 in the last 6 starts on intermediate tracks.

Austin Cindric (+4000)

Just 1 top 10 in 9 intermediate tracks this season.

Chase Briscoe (+10000)

Only 2 top 15’s on the same tracks this year with also no top 10 finishes in his last 15 tries on the season at that.

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