Top longer shot bets, prop bets for Sunday’s AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 500 (3:30 p.m. ET, USA, PRN) at Texas

Very good odds this week. I’m fading 5 of the top 8 in the odds which allows for more plays in terms of your driver lineup. I just don’t understand why Denny Hamlin who’s finished 21st or worse in 5 of his last 9 starts here is tied for the top odds. I don’t understand how a driver without a top 5 in his last 9 Texas starts is 3rd best. I don’t know why a driver without a top 5 finish since June 5 is the 4th best. A winless driver on the season and another one who has 1 career top 5 are tied for the 7th best.

There’s far better plays to be had.

Outright Win

Alex Bowman (+3000)

He has a pair of fifth place finishes in 2 of the last 3 Fall Texas races and 4 top 10 finishes in his last 6 intermediate track starts this season.

Aric Almirola (+5000)

With Stewart-Haas Racing, Almirola has four top 10 finishes in six tries.

Brad Keselowski (+10000)

He has 3 straight top 10 finishes including improvement in each. He was ninth, then sixth, then fourth…then first? He finished in the top 10 at Darlington a few races ago and led 109 laps last Saturday night in Bristol.

Erik Jones (+10000)

A very solid sleeper play here. Jones, has six top 10’s in his last seven tries at Texas including three fourth place runs in his last six overall. Also, in five Xfinity Series tries on the 1.5 mile track, he’s finished in the top four in all including two wins. He just won on an intermediate track in the last round at Darlington.

Top 10 Prop Bets

  • Alex Bowman (-110): Has a top 10 in 2 of the 3 playoff races thus far and a pair of 5th place finishes in 2 of his last 3 Texas starts.
  • Erik Jones (+300): 6 top 10’s in his last 7 Texas starts and a Darlington win last round puts him as an easy one here.
  • Austin Dillon (+300): He won this race 2 years ago and if not for a last lap crash in the Coke 600 at Charlotte was heading to a top 2 finish that night as well.
  • Aric Almirola (+300): 4 top 10’s in his last 6 Texas starts.
  • Brad Keselowski (+300): Had a fast car last week and 3 straight top 10’s here.
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+700): 4 of his 5 top 10’s this season were on intermediate tracks. 1 of which was at Charlotte, a sister track to Texas.
  • Michael McDowell (+700): 8th in the Coke 600 and a pair of top 10’s at Darlington land him here.

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