Honda Indy Toronto betting advise

INDIANAPOLIS — The odds are out for Sunday’s Honda Indy Toronto (3 p.m. ET, Peacock, INDYCAR Radio Network) on the Exhibition Place streets. Like always, a premium is going to be placed on qualifying here.

7 of the 9 races this season were won by a top 7 starter including 6 of which in the top 5 at that. Also, for Toronto in general, 17 of the last 19 races on the street course were won by a top 7 starter too. Really, if you go back to 1986 (22 races) 19 of them were won by someone qualifying in the top 7. 13th is the worst starting spot of a Toronto race winner.

That’s why starting position means a lot and Saturday could shape who ends up celebrating a win in the 10th race of the 2022 NTT INDYCAR Series season.

In saying that, you can also get some values by waiting as well. Yes, 2 of the 3 races this season on street courses were won by a front row starter. Yes, all the stats above say don’t really look at anyone outside the top 7 starting spots.

However, you can win from the back on street courses too. The last 3 Belle Isle winners came from 15th, 16th and 16th respectively including Will Power’s Row 8 qualifying effort to race win performance there just last month. Marcus Ericsson won Nashville last season from 18th. Colton Herta won Long Beach a year ago from 14th.

So it can happen.

“INDYCAR at the moment is so competitive that who knows,” said Will Power. “Like, at the end of the day you can never give up. Don’t be too down in the mouth if you don’t qualify well.

“But it matters, though. Qualifying up front, if you execute well, you’re certainly going to finish up front. Definitely the all-time high as far as driver talent, the quality of teams. Yeah, it hasn’t been this tough ever. Yeah, three big teams now, four big teams: Penske, McLaren, Andretti, Ganassi. You add Shank into that. I don’t think there’s a series more competitive around the world than this.”

Another thing to watch is parity. Out of the 9 races this season, we’ve had 9 different pole winners.

“Simply because it’s so competitive,” said Power. “There is no one that is dominating, no one stands out. You can try to pick the polesitter for this weekend. You simply couldn’t. Even the drivers, you couldn’t pick who might be on pole, which to me is a great thing.”

Will Power held off Alexander Rossi barely to win the final race at Belle Isle. Photo Credit: INDYCAR Media Site

Still, I feel like Sunday will be rewarded by those who qualify well. Strategy helps a lot in getting the field flipped but you can’t plan on strategy.

Plus, Toronto has seen a lot of early race crashes for drivers starting midpack.

3 of the last 4 years has seen a crash in the 1st two laps. One was starters 16, 17 and 18, another 4-5 and the last 12-15-16-19-20.

After those early yellows, it’s a pretty green race.

Another thing to note, Chevrolet is bringing fresh engines for their teams and they’ve won all 3 street course races in 2022 including all by Penske drivers. Chevy also has won every race outside of the Indianapolis Motor Speedway this season too.

Toronto has seen the best win here too. Since 2007, Mike Conway is the only winner of this race to not have won a championship.

Early Picks

  • Josef Newgarden (+450) – He has a top 10 in all 3 street course starts including 2 straight on the front row. For Toronto, he’s made it to the 2nd round in 5 straight races including his last 2 in the top 5. Grab him now before he falls to +300.
  • Colton Herta (+700) – He was 16th as a rookie in 2019 but 3rd, 1st and 7th in 3 street course tries in 2022 though as well. Grab him for these odds now.
  • Scott Dixon (+900) – He has 2 top 10 starting spots in 3 street races this season but a top 10 in all 13 Toronto tries too. Dixon has 5 straight top 5 starting spots in Toronto including 3 of the last 4 being on the front row.

Values

  • Scott McLaughlin (+1000) – He’s a rookie in Toronto but has a top 10 in all 3 street course starts in 2022. However, outside of his pole in St. Pete, his other 2 starts were in Row 5.
  • Marcus Ericsson (+1200) – He was only 20th in his lone rookie qualifying effort in Toronto but 8th in all 3 street races run in 2022 as well.
  • Alexander Rossi (+1400) – He was 13th, 5th and 11th on 3 street course qualifying attempts in 2022 but 19th, 8th, 5th and 4th in 4 Toronto qualifying tries too.
  • Romain Grosjean (+1600) – Qualified 5th in St. Pete, 6th in Long Beach and the only reason he was 12th in Belle Isle was because he crashed on his final lap.
  • Simon Pagenaud (+1800) – 2 of his 3 street course races in 2022 have put him in the Fast 6. His worst start this season is 10th in Long Beach on these circuits. For Toronto in general, Pagenaud has been in the 2nd round in all 10 starts including 7 straight landing him in the top 2 rows.
  • Helio Castroneves (+5000) – Was only 17th and 14th in the 1st two street course races of 2022, but 4th in Belle Isle and he has 11 straight 2nd round appearances at Toronto. However, while he has 5 top 3 starts in his last 6 tries there, he also qualified 7th three times in his last 8 appearances too.
  • Takuma Sato (+7000) – Was 2nd in Belle Isle and has a top 10 start in 4 of his last 5 tries in Toronto.
  • Kyle Kirkwood (+8000) – He made the Fast 12 in Mid-Ohio and has 3 straight top 15 starting spots on street courses this season including 2 of the 3 being 12th. Only reason he was 15th in Detroit was due to a practice crash prior. He was quickest on the Friday practice of that weekend.

Alex Palou in Belle Isle last June. Photo Credit: INDYCAR Media Site

Fades

  • Alex Palou (+500) – He qualified 10th, 3rd and 18th in 3 street races in 2022. It’s questionable already that he has the 2nd best odds, especially for all the drama surrounding he and his team right now. Let alone him never racing at Toronto before either.
  • Pato O’Ward (+500) – He was 16th, 11th and 5th in the 3 street races in 2022. He’s a rookie in Toronto too.
  • Will Power (+900) – Odd to have him here but 4 of his last 5 starts have seen him be 15th or worse plus his last qualifying effort in Toronto was 15th as well. He does have 11 top 5 starts in 13 tries north of the border in Toronto, but that’s not seemed to matter at other tracks this season either.
  • Rinus VeeKay (+2000) – He was 4th, 15th and 14th in 3 street course appearances in 2022.
  • Felix Rosenqvist )+2500) – He did qualify 3rd in 2019 for his lone Toronto start, but 2 of his 3 street course efforts have seen him qualify 21st or worse too.
  • Graham Rahal (+5000) – He’s made the Fast 12 in 4 of his last 7 Toronto starts and was between 11th and 13th in 2 of his 3 starts on the season, but was 23rd in Belle Isle too.
  • David Malukas (+6600) – He was 24th, 19th and 6th in 3 street courses this season but for Toronto, he’s a rookie.
  • Conor Daly (+8000) – He’s qualified 20th, 18th and 13th in his 3 street races in 2022 and 19th, 7th, 18th and 11th in 4 Toronto starts as well.
  • Jack Harvey (+10000) – He’s qualified 23rd, 21st and 20th on street courses this season.
  • Christian Lundgaard (+10000)– He’s started 15th, 20th and 19th in 3 street course races this year.
  • Callum Ilott (+10000) – He was 19th, 22nd and 17th in 3 street courses starts in 2022.
  • Devlin DeFrancesco (+15000) – The hometown kid was 18th, 17th and 21st in 3 street course tries in 2022.
  • Dalton Kellett (+50000) – He’s a rookie in Toronto and qualified 14th, 24th and 25th this year on street courses.
  • Jimmie Johnson (+50000) – He was 26th, 26th and 22nd in 3 street course qualifying efforts in 2022.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s