Early betting advise for Sunday’s Honda Indy 200 (12 p.m. ET, NBC, INDYCAR Radio Network)

The odds are finally out on DraftKings ahead of Sunday’s Honda Indy 200 (12 p.m. ET, NBC, INDYCAR Radio Network) NTT INDYCAR Series race at the Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course. In saying that, you’re going to want to jump on a few of these lines early because qualifying will be the main determining factor to who wins this weekend’s 9th event of the 17 race slate this year.

Once qualifying hits on Saturday (2:45 p.m. ET, Peacock, INDYCAR Radio Network), the odds will more than likely drop heavily in favor of those who qualify inside of the Fast 6. Here’s why.

40 of the last 42 natural road course races in the series in general saw the winner come from a top 10 (95%) starting spot. However, I think we can narrow it down further than that though for Mid-Ohio.

14 out of the last 15 races (93%) on natural road courses were won by a top 7 starter. To go even further with this, 6 of the last 7 races at Mid-Ohio were won by a front row starter. 6 out of the last 7 races on natural road courses overall were also won by a front row starter.

For Mid-Ohio 5 of the 6 were from the pole. We’ve seen 3 straight winners here from the pole and 4 out of the last 5 at that.

Then you have to factor in the “Big 3” teams too.

6 of the last 7 Mid-Ohio races have seen teammates on the podium.

2021: Penske-Ganassi-Ganassi

2020 Race 1: Penske-Penske-Andretti

2020 Race 2: Andretti-Andretti-Andretti

2019: Ganassi-Ganassi-Andretti

2018: Andretti-SPM-Penske *

2017: Penske-Penske-RLL

2016: Penske-Penske-Andretti

Alex Palou is one to watch this weekend at Mid-Ohio. Photo Credit: INDYCAR Media Site

Who To Pick Then?

We have enough data between Barber, Indy road course and Road America this season as well as recent Mid-Ohio stats to find some trends on who to pick now and whom you should maybe wait on.

Grab Now Favorites

  • Josef Newgarden (+400) – Won the pole last year and has 8 top 5 starts in his last 9 Mid-Ohio tries including his worst qualifying effort since 2014 being 9th in Race 2 of 2020. He also has 2 straight front row starts on the season and was 7th at Barber, 3rd at Indy and 2nd at Road America. Barring a big mishap in qualifying, I don’t think his odds move into our favor so grab him now.
  • Alex Palou (+500) – He’s qualified 20th, 4th and 7th at Mid-Ohio but 3rd, 2nd and 3rd on like tracks this season. Snag him before he drops.
  • Alexander Rossi (+600) – Has made it into the 2nd round in all 7 Mid-Ohio tries with 4 out of his last 5 landing in the Fast 6 and 2 out of the 3 natural road courses this season being in the final round too. He was 5th at Barber, 16th at Indy but on the pole in Road America. If he snags a Fast 6 again, this could drop to +350 or +400 so I’d take him for these odds as they sit.
  • Colton Herta (+700) – 3 of his 4 Mid-Ohio starts have been 7th or better including 2 straight on the front row. On like tracks, he was 10th in Barber, 14th in Indy and 5th in Road America. Another front row start cuts these odds in half so snag him now too.

Great Values

  • Marcus Ericsson (+1200) – His 4 Mid-Ohio starting spots are 12th, 21st 15th and then 3rd. He was 4th last time out at Road America which to me, negates being 12th and 18th at Barber and Indy respectively. He has 3 straight top 8 starting spots on the season too.
  • Will Power (+1400) – Which one shows up? The one that qualified 17th in Race 2 of 2020 and has been 11th or worse in 4 out of his last 5 qualifying efforts on the season or the one who’s had 12 Fast 6 appearances in his last 13 Mid-Ohio tries including 10 of the 12 on the front row. He won the pole at Indy but was also 19th at Barber and 15th at Road America too. For these odds, if the Power of expected shows up, then they’ll drop drastically on Saturday evening so grab him now.
  • Scott McLaughlin (+1500) – He qualified 14th last year and was 4th in Barber, 11th in Indy and 9th in Road America. May not be a Fast 6 driver but definitely a 2nd round one.
  • Romain Grosjean (+1600) – While he was 18th last year at Mid-Ohio, he’s qualified 8th at Barber, 10th at Indy and 7th in Road America. He’s a fringe Fast 6 guy so snag him now at these odds.
  • Felix Rosenqvist (+2500) – This may be your top sleeper. 3 of his 4 Road America starts have seen him qualify in the top 7. On natural road courses this year, he’s been 6th, 6th and 8th respectively with 6 of his last 7 starts overall being 8th or better.
  • Callum Ilott (+10000) – These are his best tracks despite him being at rookie at Mid-Ohio. Ilott was in Row 6 at Barber (11th) and Road America (12th) as well as 7th at Indy.
  • Christian Lundgaard (+10000) – Another rookie but one that qualifies well on like tracks. He was 14th in Barber, 8th in Indy and 13th in Road America.
  • Conor Daly (+10000) – He was 24th last year but 11th, 14th, 4th and 16th prior. On like tracks this season, Daly has qualified 22nd (Barber), 4th (Indy RC) and 18th (Road America).

Can Wait For Now

  • Pato O’Ward (+600) – His 3 Mid-Ohio starts were 15th, 21st and 20th respectively. However, he’s made the Fast 6 in all 3 natural road courses this season (2nd, 5th, 6th) and will be in the hunt again this weekend. But for +600 to open, I think you can wait.
  • Scott Dixon (+1000) – Good odds for a guy who’s won on this track 6 times. While Dixon has 2 straight top 5 starting spots at Mid-Ohio, those are also his only Fast 6 appearances here since 2016 too. 7 of his last 8 have been in the top 11 and that’s likely where he falls in the 2nd round. He was 13th at Barber, 21st at Indy and 10th last weekend in Road America. You can wait here for now.
  • Simon Pagenaud (+2000) – Weird to have him here when he has 5 top 10 starts in his last 7 at Mid-Ohio including 3 of the last 4 but on like tracks this season, Pagenaud has qualified 24th, 20th and 11th respectively.
  • Rinus VeeKay (+2200) – He was 9th and 11th/11th respectively in his 3 Mid-Ohio qualifying efforts and on like tracks this season was 1st at Barber, 15th at Indy and 17th at Road America. 3 of his last 4 starts in 2022 have been 13th or worse.
  • Helio Castroneves (+5000) – 3 straight top 7 starts at Mid-Ohio but those came in 2015, 2016 and 2017. He does have 7 top 7’s starting spots in 11 Mid-Ohio tries overall but on the season, he’s been 14th or worse in 6 of the 8 races run including being 16th, 19th and 16th at Barber, Indy RC and Road America respectively.
  • Graham Rahal (+5000) – His last Mid-Ohio Fast 6 came in 2017. He does have 5 top 10 starting spots in his last 7 on the track and has at least made it past the opening round in 7 of his last 9 tries here overall. However, on the season, Rahal has made it to the 2nd round just twice with 4 of his last 7 being 21st or worse. He was 9th at Barber, 12th at the Indy GP and 22nd in Road America. His last 3 starts on the season were 21st, 23rd and 22nd respectively in general.
  • David Malukas (+6000) – Yet another rookie who was 18th in Barber, 24th in Indy GP and 14th in Road America.
  • Takuma Sato (+8000) – 9 out of his last 11 at Mid-Ohio have seen him eliminated in Round 1. He was bounced in the opening round in 2 of the 3 races run this season too on like tracks.
  • Kyle Kirkwood (+8000) – A rookie at Mid-Ohio but Foyt struggles on these types of courses. Kirkwood started 21st in Barber, 22nd in Indy and 24th in Road America.
  • Jack Harvey (+10000) – He was 9th in 2019 and 5th for Race 1 of 2020 but his other 3 Mid-Ohio starts were 20th, 19th and 23rd. On the season, he was 15th in Barber, 9th at Indy and 20th in Road America. 5 of his 7 starts have seen him come from 15th on back including his last 3 being 32nd, 20th and 20th respectively.
  • Devlin DeFrancesco (+20000) – rookie at Mid-Ohio and has qualified 20th 17th and 21st on like tracks this season. He’s been Row 8 or further back in all 8 races run in 2022 including 4 of the last 5 20th or worse.
  • Dalton Kellett (+50000) – His 3 Mid-Ohio starts have been 23rd, 20th and 21st respectively. On the season, he’s qualified 22nd or worse in 7 straight races now including being 23rd at Barber, 26th at Indy GP and 23rd in Road America.
  • Jimmie Johnson (+30000) – He qualified 25th last year and was 26th in Barber, 27th in Indy and 26th at Road America this season. 7 of his 8 starts in 2022 have been 18th or worse.
  • Tatiana Calderon (+100000) – rookie at Mid-Ohio and has qualified on like tracks this year – 26th, 15th and 25th respectively. 4 of her 6 starts in 2022 have been Row 12 on back.

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