Thanks to Joey Logano’s bump-and-run at the end of Sunday’s Goodyear 400 at the Darlington Raceway, all of us fall -$100 into the hole again. Both Eric and CJ had William Byron but Logano’s maneuver to move Byron out of the way in the end, dropped both out of the money since none of the 3 of us had Logano winning.
Now, it’s to Kansas to where the door is more open again.
Each manufacturer has won the last 3 Kansas Cup races. Ford won the playoff race in 2020 while Toyota and Chevrolet won the 2 races a year ago. Something now has to give. Which one?
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Penske’s struggles should continue this week again but the door is still open elsewhere. Ryan Blaney has seen 5 of his last 6 Kansas races have seen him finish 20th or worse including being 21st and 37th last year. Since 2018, his Kansas finishes are 37th, 7th, 32nd, 21st, 20th, 7th, 21st and 37th respectively. He’s finished outside the top 10 in each of his last 3 starts on the season. Austin Cindric has finished in the top 10 just twice all year while Joey Logano (15th or worse in 4 of his last 6 in Kansas including 6 of the last 10 overall) is coming off of a win last week and the odds of him going back-to-back weeks in wins is slim.
Who else can we eliminate?
Brad Keselowski is in a similar boat. He was in the top four in both races in 2020 to go along being third last spring. That gives him five top six finishes in his last seven Kansas starts overall. He’s with a new team though and has just 1 top 10 all season and that came in Race 1 at Daytona. Aric Almirola has no top five finishes in 20 starts while his teammate Cole Custer hasn’t scored a top 10 all season. Their only teammate in Chase Brisoce has 1 top 10 in the 8 races since his Phoenix win. He was 20th and 19th at Kansas last year.
That’s just the Ford camp. What about the Toyota’s?
Kurt Busch was fourth in last year’s playoff race to go along with 4 top 10’s in his last 6 Kansas tries. But, his stats on the season are abysmal right now. 5 of his last 7 results have been 28th or worse. His teammate Bubba Wallace hasn’t finished in the top 15 in each of the last 7 weeks on the season and 10 of the last 11 weeks at that.
Their owner, Denny Hamlin, has been feast or famine in Kansas with two wins in his last five tries. He was 15th in the 2020 playoff race though and 12th back in May of last year too. Hamlin was fifth in last year’s playoff to give him 3 top 5’s in his last 5 but it’s those other stats… In the last 8 races, he has 1 top 15, his win in Richmond.
Martin Truex Jr. has been 20th or worse in 3 of the last 5 weeks on the year. Do you trust that or eight top seven results in his last 10 tries at Kansas?
I think I’d say outside of the Chevy camp, Kevin Harvick (runner-up in 2 of his last 3 Kansas starts), Christopher Bell (5 top 7’s last 9 on the season) and Kyle Busch (2 top 5’s last 3 in Kansas) are the favorites.
What about that Chevy camp? Kyle Larson led the most laps in the spring race and dominated the Fall one, but also has 5 finishes of 29th or worse on the season still. William Byron (1 top 5 in 8 Kansas starts, 0 top 10’s last 4 on season) also could have a solid, but not race winning week.
I do like Alex Bowman (4 top 8’s last 7 in Kansas) and Chase Elliott (6 top 6’s last 7 at Kansas, 7 top 10’s last 8 weeks on season) to lead the charge. Ross Chastain was 14th and 13th last year and before his Darlington crash looked like he had race winning speed again.
The RCR duo is interesting as well. They’ve combined for 4 top 3 finishes in the last 5 weeks including 3 of those 4 being runner-ups. Reddick, was 7th in last year’s playoff race while Austin Dillon was 10th in both races last year.
Race Odds
7-1…Kyle B, C Elliott, D Hamlin and K Larson
10-1…W Byron, R Chastain and M Truex Jr.
12-1…J Logano
14-1…R Blaney
16-1…A Bowman and T Reddick
18-1…K Harvick
20-1…C Bell
30-1…C Briscoe
35-1…E Jones
40-1…Kurt B and B Keselowski
60-1…A Almirola and A Cindric
80-1…A Dillon and Suarez
150-1…C Buescher, N Gragson, J Haley, R Stenhouse Jr. and B Wallace
500-1…C Custer
1000-1…H Burton and T Dillon
ADVENT HEALTH 400 PICKS: RACE 13
CJ Radune
K Larson…7-1…$18 ($126)
Kyle B…7-1…$17 ($119)
R Chastain…10-1…$15 ($150)
W Byron…10-1…$15 ($150)
M Truex Jr…10-1…$15 ($150)
A Bowman…16-1…$10 ($160)
T Reddick…16-1…$10 ($160)
RECORD: 8 for 12
TOTAL: -97
Eric Smith
C Elliott…7-1…$20 ($140)
K Larson…7-1…$17 ($119)
Kyle B…7-1…$15 ($105)
W Byron…10-1…$11 ($110)
M Truex Jr…10-1…$11 ($110)
A Bowman…16-1…$8 ($128)
K Harvick…18-1…$8 ($144)
C Bell…20-1…$8 ($160)
A Dillon…80-1…$2 ($160)
RECORD: 5 for 12
TOTAL: -443
Greg DePalma
Kyle B…7-1…$25 ($175)
D Hamlin…7-1…$13 ($91)
R Chastain…10-1…$20 ($200)
A Bowman…16-1…$10 ($160)
T Reddick…16-1…$6 ($96)
K Harvick…18-1…$5 ($90)
C Bell…20-1…$10 ($200)
C Briscoe…30-1…$3 ($90)
A Dillon…80-1…$2 ($160)
J Haley…150-1…$3 ($450)
R Stenhouse Jr…150-1…$3 ($450)
RECORD: 3 for 12
TOTAL: -590
ARCHIVES
GOODYEAR 400 PICKS: RACE 12
GOODYEAR 400 WINNER: Joey Logano
CJ Radune
K Larson…5-1…$23 ($115) …36th
M Truex Jr…7-1…$17 ($119) …24th
D Hamlin…8-1…$15 ($120) …21st
Kyle B…10-1…$11 ($110) …33rd
R Blaney…12-1…$10 ($120) …17th
W Byron…12-1…$10 ($120) …13th
A Bowman…14-1…$8 ($112) …29th
T Reddick…20-1…$6 ($120) …2nd
RECORD: 0 for 1
TOTAL: -100
Eric Smith
K Larson…5-1…$25 ($125) …36th
M Truex Jr…7-1…$10 ($70) …24th
Kyle B…10-1…$11 ($110) …33rd
W Byron…12-1…$10 ($120) …13th
R Chastain…12-1…$10 ($120) …30th
A Bowman…14-1…$8 ($112) …29th
K Harvick…16-1…$7 ($112) …4th
T Reddick…20-1…$6 ($120) …2nd
D Suarez…30-1…$4 ($120) …10th
A Dillon…30-1…$4 ($120) …9th
E Jones…40-1…$3 ($120) …25th
C Custer…200-1…$2 ($400) …26th
RECORD: 0 for 1
TOTAL: -100
Greg DePalma
K Larson…5-1…$17 ($85) …36th
Kyle B…10-1…$25 ($250) …33rd
R Chastain…12-1…$12 ($144) …30th
A Bowman…14-1…$13 ($182) …29th
K Harvick…16-1…$10 ($160) …4th
C Bell…30-1…$6 ($180) …6th
Kurt B…30-1…$5 ($150) …28th
A Dillon…30-1…$6 ($180) …9th
E Jones…40-1…$5 ($200) …25th
C Custer…200-1…$1 ($200) …26th
RECORD: 0 for 1
TOTAL: -100
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