CJ hit the longer shot out of Austin Cindric for Daytona and all of us hit Kyle Larson in Fontana. But, neither of us had Alex Bowman last week in Vegas. He was 18-1 and coming off of 24th and 25th place finishes on the season as well as being 27th and 22nd on this very track last year at that.

So, we punted on him as he was one of only two drivers up top that we didn’t chose. We paid for that.

CJ is now -$15, Eric -$135 and Greg -$200.

Now, we’re back this week with good odds if you avoid Larson.

While Larson (+350) is intriguing since he won the last Phoenix race and enters this weekend having two straight top two results on the season, I think you get more bang for you buck to look further down the list. Greg and CJ elected to essentially make their money back on Larson.

We’ve seen such parity this year and do you really think someone will win 2 of the last 3 races? Yes, Hendrick Motorsports has won 2 straight on the season and 7 of the last 8 dating back to last year. But, I’m still punting on them producing a race winner this weekend.

Both Alex Bowman and William Byron are 0-for-8 in terms of top fives with HMS at Phoenix. Neither of us went their route. Larson, was 0-for-14 at Phoenix prior to his Fall win a year ago and Chase Elliott (+800) does have 3 straight top five finishes here, but he’s only 1-for-12 in the Arizona desert and hasn’t won on an oval since this very track in Nov. 2020.

CJ still sided with Elliott to make $20.

The value is actually with the JGR +700 duo of Martin Truex Jr. (1st and 2nd last year) and Kyle Busch (2 top 6’s in 3 races this season) is a wiser bet. So is Denny Hamlin (3rd in both races a year ago) at +800 or even Joey Logano at +800 with 3 top 3’s in his last 4.

1.  19 Truex Jr. (+700)
2.  18 KyBusch (+700)
3.  11 Hamlin (+800)

That’s why all three of us went Busch and Truex’s way with Eric and Greg also putting money towards Hamlin’s direction. CJ and Eric went with Larson.

In the sleepers category, you get Aric Almirola who’s the only driver with a top 10 in every race this season and 2 top 8’s in his last 4 at Phoenix as well as his teammate Kevin Harvick who’s won 9 times at this track and has 17 straight top 10’s at +2000 or higher. No brainer there either.

Austin Cindric (50-1) won 2 of the last 3 NXS races in Phoenix and was runner-up last Fall so that’s an easy target for a longshot.

RACE FUTURES: RUOFF MORTGAGE 500

Race Odds

3-1…K Larson (CJ, Greg)

7-1…Kyle B (CJ, Eric, Greg) and M Truex Jr. (CJ, Eric, Greg)

8-1…C Elliott (CJ) D Hamlin (Eric, Greg) and J Logano (CJ, Eric)

12-1…R Blaney (Eric)

14-1…W Byron

20-1…K Harvick (Eric)

25-1…A Almirola (Eric, Greg), A Bowman and T Reddick

30-1…C Bell (Eric, Greg) and B Keselowski

50-1…AJ Allmendinger, C Briscoe, Kurt B, R Chastain, A Cindric (Eric) and R Stenhouse Jr.

60-1…A Dillon and E Jones

80-1…Suarez

100-1…C Buescher and C Custer (Eric)

200-1…H Burton, J Haley and D Wallace Jr.

500-1…T Dillon

NOTE: Each analyst has a weekly wagering limit of $100.

NOTE: The weekly wagering limits will increase $100 for each playoff round ending with a $500 wagering limit for the Championship Four race.

RUOFF MORTGAGE 500 PICKS: RACE 4

CJ Radune

K Larson…3-1…$36 ($108)

Kyle B…7-1…$17 ($119)

M Truex Jr…7-1…$17 ($119) 

C Elliott…8-1…$15 ($120)

J Logano…8-1…$15 ($120) 

RECORD: 2 for 3

TOTAL: -15

Eric Smith

Kyle B…7-1…$20 ($140)

M Truex Jr…7-1…$15 ($105) 

D Hamlin…8-1…$15 ($120)   

J Logano…8-1…$15 ($120) 

R Blaney…12-1…$11 ($132) 

K Harvick…20-1…$10 ($200) 

A Almirola…25-1…$5 ($125) 

C Bell…30-1…$4 ($120) 

A Cindric…50-1…$3 ($150) 

C Custer…100-1…$2 ($200) 

RECORD: 1 for 3

TOTAL: -135

Greg DePalma

K Larson…3-1…$25 ($75)

Kyle B…7-1…$12 ($84)

M Truex Jr…7-1…$30 ($210) 

D Hamlin…8-1…$11 ($88)   

A Almirola…25-1…$8 ($200) 

C Bell…30-1…$14 ($420) 

RECORD: 1 for 3

TOTAL: -200

ARCHIVES

PENNZOIL 400 PICKS: RACE 3

PENNZOIL 400 WINNER: Alex Bowman

CJ Radune

K Larson…5-1…$24 ($120) …2^nd

J Logano…7-1…$17 ($119) …14^th 

R Blaney…10-1…$12 ($120) …36^th

Kyle B…12-1…$10 ($120) …4^th

D Hamlin…12-1…$10 ($120) …32^nd  

T Reddick…14-1…$9 ($126) …7^th 

M Truex Jr…14-1…$9 ($126) …8^th 

E Jones…25-1…$5 ($125) …31^st

D Suarez…30-1…$4 ($120) …37^th

RECORD: 0 for 1

TOTAL: -100

Eric Smith

K Larson…5-1…$22 ($110) …2^nd

J Logano…7-1…$19 ($133) …14^th   

R Blaney…10-1…$13 ($130) …36^th  

Kyle B…12-1…$12 ($144) …4^th 

M Truex Jr…14-1…$12 ($168) …8^th  

K Harvick…18-1…$10 ($180) …12^th

B Keselowski…25-1…$5 ($125) …24^th 

C Briscoe…50-1…$3 ($150) …35^th

A Almirola…70-1…$2 ($140) …6^th  

D Hemric…100-1…$2 ($200) …22^nd 

RECORD: 0 for 1

TOTAL: -100

Greg DePalma

K Larson…5-1…$20 ($100) …2^nd

C Elliott…7-1…$15 ($105) …9^th 

D Hamlin…12-1…$24 ($288) …32^nd    

T Reddick…14-1…$10 ($140) …7^th  

M Truex Jr…14-1…$10 ($140) …8^th    

B Keselowski…25-1…$4 ($100) …24^th  

A Dillon…30-1…$5 ($150) …11^th 

C Briscoe…50-1…$10 ($500) …35^th

A Almirola…70-1…$2 ($140) …6^th   

RECORD: 0 for 1

TOTAL: -100