We all three picked up the win last weekend in Fontana with all of us going with the favorite in Kyle Larson (4-1). That comes after CJ landed Austin Cindric who was 28-1 for the Daytona 500.
Now, we go to Las Vegas next to where Larson won the spring race and Denny Hamlin the playoff one. Normally, the heavy hitters win Vegas, but with what we saw in Fontana, maybe we get somewhere in the middle.
For Fontana, CJ had 1st, 5th, 8th, 14th, 15th, 26th and 27th.
Greg had 1st, 5th, 14th, 18th, 24th, 25th and 27th.
Eric had 1st, 5th, 7th, 8th, 13th, 14th, 18th and 25th.
Now, CJ is the only one in the + category while Eric and Greg maintained but didn’t lose heading into Vegas.
Eric, went conservative again to try and pick up a win while also sprinkling in a few longer shots. He went top heavy with Kyle Larson (5-1), Joey Logano (7-1) and Ryan Blaney (10-1). Then factor in Kyle Busch (12-1) and his pair of third place finishes, Martin Truex Jr. (14-1) with 8 top 8’s in his last 9 there and Kevin Harvick (18-1) and 6 top 10’s in his last 8 including a win and a runner-up in that span all being double digit odds, why not?
Brad Keselowski (25-1) with 12 top 7’s in his last 13 including 4 top 3’s in his last 7 overall there, Chase Briscoe (50-1) being 14th last Fall as well as Aric Almirola (70-1) and Daniel Hemric (100-1) with the two best average finishes this season and you get a solid core of longer shots as well.
The ones he avoided was Chase Elliott (7-1), William Byron (12-1), Denny Hamlin (12-1), Tyler Reddick (14-1) and Alex Bowman (18-1).
CJ avoided all but Hamlin and Reddick where Greg went with Elliott, Hamlin and Reddick leaving Byron and Bowman as the only top drivers on the board not taken this week.
Greg also agreed with Eric’s longer shots with picking up Briscoe and Almirola as well as last weeks runner-up Austin Dillon (30-1).
Elliott, was runner-up last Fall but he’s only had 2 top 5 finishes in his last eight Vegas starts. Half of his career starts have seen him finish 22nd or worse so with 7-1 odds, might as well avoid him. Byron, has finished 16th or worse in 6 of his 8 Vegas tries including 3 of his last 4 being 18th or worse. Hamlin may have won the last time out and having 3 straight top fours there but those are his only top fives in his last 10 tries.
Reddick has no career Vegas top fives with 3 of his finishes being 18th or worse while Bowman was 16th, 19th, 11th, 6th, 13th, 5th, 27th and 22nd respectively with HMS at Vegas.
Well all three agreed on the same driver twice (Larson, Truex Jr.)
5-1…K Larson (Eric, CJ, Greg)
7-1…C Elliott (Greg) and J Logano (Eric, CJ)
10-1…R Blaney (Eric, CJ)
12-1…Kyle B (Eric), W Byron and D Hamlin (CJ, Greg)
14-1…T Reddick (CJ, Greg) and M Truex Jr. (Eric, CJ, Greg)
18-1…A Bowman and K Harvick (Eric)
25-1…C Bell, Kurt B, E Jones (CJ) and B Keselowski (Eric, Greg)
30-1…A Cindric, A Dillon (Greg) and Suarez (CJ)
50-1…C Briscoe (Eric, Greg) and R Stenhouse Jr.
70-1…A Almirola (Eric, Greg), C Buescher and C Custer
100-1…H Burton, T Dillon, D Hemric (Eric) and D Wallace Jr.