Prime Sports NASCAR – weekly race picks recap from Texas and who we chose for Kansas

We all three picked up the win again last weekend in Texas with Eric getting the biggest boost via his 20th win of the year. He gained $564 with Kyle Larson’s triumph and moves back closer to the profit point at now -$13. CJ got $450 too with Greg breaking even.

Eric went 1-6-8-11 from his four picks while CJ had 1-6-7-11 himself. Greg chose more drivers as he went 1-6-8-9-13-16-21-30-33.

Now, it’s to Kansas where the favorites likely are to win again.

This is a tough place for someone outside of the big programs to win at though. Just look at the recent history of winners. Brad Keselowski, Jimmie Johnson, Denny Hamlin, Matt Kenseth, Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr. and Chase Elliott. These nine drivers have combined to win every Kansas race since 2011.

I can make a case that Kyle Larson will add his name to this list. He already knows he’s racing for the Championship 4 in two weeks at Phoenix via his win last Sunday in Texas, but no one is touching Larson on these tracks this year.

He’s been so dominant on 550 tracks this season. In 11 races now on them, Larson has four wins, three runner-ups, eight top fives and a top 10 in all but two. The only two he didn’t get a top 10 was actually in Kansas this past spring to where he led 132 of 267 laps and restarted in the top five on the final shootout but was incurred some damage on it. Then, it was Atlanta when he had problems on pit road.

That’s it.

He’s led 1,607 out of 3,247 possible laps (50%) in these 11 races which also accounts for 71% (1,607 out of 2,267) laps led on the season for him. Furthermore, he’s won 11 stages and has been in the top two in 14 of the 23 stages run on these tracks.

This could be his race to lose again.

The other focus is on the other seven playoff drivers.

For whatever reason, the playoff race at Kansas has always been a wild one in the sense of wrecks or pit road troubles for the playoff drivers, it’s just one that has had a lot of chaos.

Ryan Blaney is +17 as he was sixth in his No. 12 Ford last Sunday in Texas. It was his seventh top eight in his last eight Texas starts at that. It was also his 12th top 10, 10 of which in the top six, in his last 16 races. He had 17 stage points too which helped him gain 16 points on the field as he entered the weekend +1 and leaves +17. The thing is, four of his last five at Kansas have seen him finish 20th or worse.

Denny Hamlin (+9) rebounded to be 11th in Texas for his first result outside of the top 10 during this postseason. He’s feast or famine in Kansas with two wins in his last four tries. He was 15th in this race last year though and 12th back in May.

His teammate Kyle Busch (+8) could benefit the most. He’s been in the top 10 in the last seven Fall races at Kansas including six of which being in the top five. He won this past spring.

Chase Elliott (-8) could also play into this. He was sixth last year, fifth in the spring race and has five top sixes in his last six at Kansas to go along with being fourth, first, second and sixth respectively in his last four Fall starts on the 1.5-mile track. The drawback is, he’s only had three top fives in 11 intermediate starts this year and has just two top fives in his last nine starts on the season at that.

Brad Keselowski (-15) scored just his fourth top five in the last 22 races on the season at Texas. He was in the top four in both races last year to go along with five top six finishes in his last six Kansas starts overall. Keselowski, was fourth last weekend on another 550 track at Texas.

Martin Truex Jr. (-22) and Joey Logano (-43) combined for no stage points last week and really are going to maybe need to win to get to the final round. Truex, has had a top 10 in all but one Kansas start since 2017 including sweeping both race wins in 2017. In fact, he has seven top six results in his last nine tries.

Logano has been 15th or worst in four of his last five in the Sunflower State. He won this race last year but was 15th, 17th, 35th and 17th respectively in his other four starts since 2019. In fact, he has seven finishes of 17th or worse in his last 11 Kansas starts in general. On the season, Logano has six finishes of 17th or worse on 550 tracks too to go along with one win this year and it was on a dirt track. That came 26 races ago as he’s only led 84 laps over the last 19 races overall and has six top fives in the last 24 starts.

We could also see spoilers too.

Too bad neither of William Byron, Christopher Bell or Tyler Reddick are still championship eligible. Byron and Bell were eliminated last round while Reddick was bounced in Round 1. That’s because they’re literally outperforming some of the other playoff drivers still.

Byron, finished second last Sunday in Texas for his second top three in the last five weeks. He looked to have the best car a week prior too and was third in the closing laps before pushing too hard for the win. He has four straight top 10 finishes at Kansas

Reddick, was second in Charlotte and there again last week, but contact with Byron left him with some damage and he faded to ninth. Still, it was his third top 10 in the last four races. Bell, went from two laps down to third for his third straight top eight and fourth in the last six weeks.

What about Kevin Harvick? He was runner-up in each of his last two Kansas starts including fourth last spring too. Harvick, has eight top two finishes at Kansas since 2013 and fifth last week in Texas.

You also have Alex Bowman. He has been really good at Kansas. Bowman, was seventh when he filled in for Dale Earnhardt Jr. several seasons ago. Since then, he also has five top 11 results on the 1.5-mile track in his last six tries including being runner-up in the spring race in 2019 and eighth and fourth respectively last year.

Matt DiBenedetto was 12th on this track last Fall and fourth in the spring race this year. He also had a pair of runner-up finishes in a similar track at Las Vegas last year too.

This will also serve as the final race of the 550 package as we revert back to the 750 package for the final two weeks of the season..

Race Odds

2-1…K Larson (CJ)

6-1…D Hamlin (Eric, Greg, CJ)

8-1…Kyle B (Eric, Greg, CJ) C Elliott (Eric), and M Truex Jr.

10-1…W Byron (Eric, Greg)

11-1…B Keselowski (Eric)

12-1…R Blaney (Greg), K Harvick and J Logano

25-1…A Bowman

28-1…T Reddick (Eric, Greg)

33-1…C Bell (Greg)

40-1…Kurt B

60-1…M DiBenedetto (Greg) and A Dillon

125-1…A Almirola, C Buescher (Greg) and R Chastain

150-1…D Suarez

200-1…E Jones, R Stenhouse Jr. and D Wallace Jr.

250-1…C Briscoe and C Custer

300-1…Newman

HOLLYWOOD CASINO 400: RACE 34 PICKS

 

Eric Smith

D Hamlin…6-1…$155 ($930)

Kyle B…8-1…$70 ($560)

C Elliott…8-1…$70 ($560)

W Byron…10-1…$45 ($450)

B Keselowski…11-1…$45 ($495)

T Reddick…28-1…$15 ($420)

RECORD: 20 for 33

TOTAL: -13

 

HOLLYWOOD CASINO 400: RACE 34 PICKS

 

Greg DePalma

D Hamlin…6-1…$162 ($972)

Kyle B…8-1…$70 ($560)

W Byron…10-1…$40 ($400)

R Blaney…12-1…$70 ($840)

T Reddick…28-1…$25 ($700)

C Bell…33-1…$15 ($495)

M DiBenedetto…60-1…$10 ($600)

C Buescher…125-1…$8 ($1000)

RECORD: 11 for 33

TOTAL: -239

 

HOLLYWOOD CASINO 400: RACE 34 PICKS

 

CJ Radune

K Larson…2-1…$250 ($500)

D Hamlin…6-1…$85 ($510)

Kyle B…8-1…$65 ($520)

 

RECORD: 17 for 33

TOTAL: -509

Weekly Race Points Standings

 

Week 32 Texas

1 Eric +357/-13

2 Greg 0/-239

3 CJ +200/-509

WEEKLY PICKS ARCHIVES

 

AUTOTRADER 500: RACE 33 PICKS

AUTOTRADER 500 WINNER: KYLE LARSON

AUTOTRADER 500: RACE 33 PICKS

 

Greg DePalma

K Larson…3-1…$100 ($300) …1st

Kyle B…7-1…$100 ($700) …8th

R Blaney…9-1…$100 ($900) …6th

J Logano…11-1…$38 ($418) …30th/Engine

A Bowman…22-1…$12 ($264) …33rd/Acc.

Kurt B…25-1…$10 ($250) …16th

T Reddick…40-1…$25 ($1000) …9th

M DiBenedetto…100-1…$10 ($1000) …13th

C Buescher…200-1…$5 ($1000) …21st/Acc.

RECORD: 1 for 1

TOTAL: 0

 

AUTOTRADER 500: RACE 33 PICKS

 

Eric Smith

K Larson…3-1…$188 ($564) …1st   

Kyle B…7-1…$72 ($504) …8th

D Hamlin…7-1…$65 ($455) …11th

R Blaney…9-1…$70 ($630) …6th

 

RECORD: 1 for 1

TOTAL: +357

 

 

AUTOTRADER 500: RACE 33 PICKS

 

CJ Radune

K Larson…3-1…$150 ($450) …1st   

D Hamlin…7-1…$100 ($700) …11th

C Elliott…7-1…$75 ($525) …7th

R Blaney…9-1…$75 ($675) …6th

 

RECORD: 1 for 1

TOTAL: +200

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