Prime Sports NASCAR – weekly race picks, recap from Charlotte and a look ahead to this weekend at Texas

Greg took a small profit last week in Talladega but a big one this past weekend in Charlotte with $380 richer following Kyle Larson’s triumph. He’s now not only inching closer to Eric’s lead with Eric entering -$510 but picking up $140 on the win from Kyle Larson and now being -$370, but he’s passed him at -$239. CJ also won but like Eric, it was a minimal gain from Larson and sits -$709. 

Eric also had Chase Elliott (12th), Joey Logano (7th) and Christopher Bell (8th). CJ had Larson, Elliott (12th) and William Byron (11th). 

Greg had Larson (1st), Ryan Blaney (9th), Alex Bowman (10th), Byron (11th) and Ross Chastain (23rd). Now, it’s to Texas where the best of the best should be the ones to top. 

Larson (3-1) is the heavy favorite for obvious reasons. He’s coming off of a win last week, won the All-Star race here in June as well as earning six top five finishes in 10 550 starts this season. The only drawback is, Texas isn’t a great track for him in general though. The All-Star race was with a different package with Larson having just three top fives in his last 13 points paying starts there including six finishes of 23rd or worse overall. 

The better odds are in the 7-1 and 9-1 range. Kyle Busch won this race last year, has five to 10’s in his last six at Texas as well as eight top fives in 10 starts on 550 tracks this year including six of his last seven in the top three. 

Denny Hamlin is there and has an opening race win in each of the first two rounds this postseason. He’s had a top 10 in all six playoff starts at that. The thing is, he only have five top fives on 550 track this season though and four of his last six races at Texas he’s finished 20th or worse. 

Martin Truex Jr. is 0-fer at Texas but has three top sixes in his last four and five top sixes on 550 tracks on the season. Chase Elliott is the only other one at 7-1 but this isn’t necessarily the time to take him. He’s had three top fives all year on 550 tracks to go along with four of his six playoff races seeing him finish 12th or worst. At Texas, he’s been 12th or worse in three of his last four starts there too. 

The best value pick may belong to Ryan Blaney (9-1). He’s had seven top sixes on 550 tracks including five straight. He’s also been in the top 10 in four of his last five playoff starts to go along with five top fives in his last nine races overall. At Texas, he was third and fourth respectively last year. 

I don’t like Joey Logano even though he’s 11-1 and has nine top 10’s in his last 10 Texas tries. The reason? He’s only had five top fives in his last 22 starts on the season and none on 550 tracks. He’s only been in the top 10 on them three times overall this season. 

Same for the 12-1 drivers. Brad Keselowski has three top fives in his last 21 starts on the season including two in the last 12 in general. On 550 tracks, he’s had one top five in his last six tries. At Texas, six of his last 10 he’s finished outside the top 10 at that. 

Kevin Harvick could be a value at 12-1 with him having 12 top 10’s in his last 13 Texas starts including a win in this very race in three of the last four years. But, he’s not won a race in over a year now, has only two finishes better than fourth all season and doesn’t look like his oldself. 

Everyone else are longshots. 

William Byron (18-1) has no top fives and only two top 10’s in six Texas starts. He’s out of the playoffs now too. 

Alex Bowman (22-1) is worth some money. He’s had two fifth place finishes in his last three starts there and four top sevens in his last six 550 tracks. 

Kurt Busch (25-1) has four top eights in his last five on 550 tracks including a win in Atlanta as well as eight straight top 10’s at Texas. Can he win a playoff race as a non playoff driver though?

Past him, there’s a reason their odds are longer and as we get deeper in the year, the risk isn’t worth it. 

Race Odds

3-1…K Larson (Greg, Eric, CJ)

7-1…Kyle B (Greg, Eric), C Elliott (CJ), D Hamlin (Eric CJ) and M Truex Jr.

9-1…R Blaney (Greg, Eric, CJ)

11-1…J Logano (Greg)

12-1…K Harvick and B Keselowski

18-1…W Byron

22-1…A Bowman (Greg)

25-1…Kurt B (Greg)

28-1…C Bell

40-1…A Almirola and T Reddick (Greg)

50-1…A Dillon

60-1… R Chastain

100-1…M DiBenedetto (Greg)

125-1…C Briscoe

200-1…C Buescher (Greg), C Custer, E Jones, R Stenhouse Jr. and D Suarez

250-1…Newman and D Wallace Jr.

RACE FUTURES: AUTOTRADER 500

AUTOTRADER 500: RACE 33 PICKS

 

Greg DePalma

K Larson…3-1…$100 ($300) 

Kyle B…7-1…$100 ($700) 

R Blaney…9-1…$100 ($900)

J Logano…11-1…$38 ($418)

A Bowman…22-1…$12 ($264)

Kurt B…25-1…$10 ($250) 

T Reddick…40-1…$25 ($1000)

M DiBenedetto…100-1…$10 ($1000)

C Buescher…200-1…$5 ($1000)

RECORD: 10 for 32

TOTAL: -239

 

AUTOTRADER 500: RACE 33 PICKS

 

Eric Smith

K Larson…3-1…$188 ($564) 

Kyle B…7-1…$72 ($504) 

D Hamlin…7-1…$65 ($455)

R Blaney…9-1…$70 ($630)

RECORD: 19 for 32

TOTAL: -370

 

AUTOTRADER 500: RACE 33 PICKS

 

CJ Radune

K Larson…3-1…$150 ($450) 

D Hamlin…7-1…$100 ($700)

C Elliott…7-1…$75 ($525)  

R Blaney…9-1…$75 ($675)

 

RECORD: 16 for 32

TOTAL: -709

Weekly Race Points Standings

 

Week 31 Charlotte Roval

1 Greg +530/-239

2 Eric +140/-370

3 CJ +200/-709

WEEKLY PICKS ARCHIVES

 

BANK OF AMERICA ROVAL 400: RACE 32 PICKS

BANK OF AMERICA ROVAL 400 WINNER: KYLE LARSON

BANK OF AMERICA ROVAL 400: RACE 32 PICKS

 

Eric Smith

C Elliott…2-1…$175 ($350) …12th

K Larson…4-1…$88 ($352) …1st  

J Logano…18-1…$20 ($360) …7th

C Bell…20-1…$17 ($340) …8th   

 

RECORD: 1 for 1

TOTAL: +140

 

BANK OF AMERICA ROVAL 400: RACE 32 PICKS

 

Greg DePalma

K Larson…4-1…$150 ($680) …1st

R Blaney…16-1…$70 ($1,120) …9th

W Byron…16-1…$30 ($480) …11th

A Bowman…22-1…$20 ($440) …10th  

R Chastain…40-1…$10 ($400) …23rd  

RECORD: 1 for 1

TOTAL: +530

 

 

BANK OF AMERICA ROVAL 400: RACE 32 PICKS

 

CJ Radune

C Elliott…2-1…$175 ($350) …12th   

K Larson…4-1…$100 ($400) …1st  

W Byron…16-1…$25 ($400) …11th  

 

RECORD: 1 for 1

TOTAL: +200

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s