Prime Sports NASCAR – weekly race picks (Talladega recap, Charlotte picks)

After all the ground we made up the last month or so, Eric and CJ dropped $300 by not picking Bubba Wallace while Greg got his money back in breaking even with the 23XI Racing drivers’ win on Monday in Talladega.

Eric goes from -$210 to -$510 while CJ drops to -$909. Greg remains at -$769 going to the Charlotte ROVAL this weekend.

For picks last week, Eric had – 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 7th, 8th and 11th.

D Hamlin…7-1…$72 ($504)  – 7th

J Logano…10-1…$65 ($650)  -3rd

R Blaney…11-1…$60 ($660)  -15th

B Keselowski…14-1…$22 ($308) -2nd

W Byron…16-1…$20 ($320) -36th

K Harvick…16-1…$22 ($352) – 8th

A Dillon…25-1…$13 ($325) – 11th

M DiBenedetto…30-1…$11 ($330) -35th

C Buescher…40-1…$8 ($320) -6th

M McDowell…50-1…$7 ($350) -17th

CJ had similar fate. 

D Hamlin…7-1…$60 ($420) -7th

J Logano…10-1…$50 ($500) -3rd

R Blaney…11-1…$50 ($550) – 15th

C Elliott…11-1…$50 ($550) -18th

B Keselowski…14-1…$30 ($420) -2nd

W Byron…16-1…$30 ($480) -36th

M DiBenedetto…30-1…$15 ($450) -35th

C Buescher…40-1…$15 ($600) – 6th

Greg ended up with the win but not second and third like Eric and CJ had. 

D Hamlin…7-1…$50 ($350)- 7th

R Blaney…11-1…$75 ($825) -15th

C Elliott…11-1…$25 ($275) -18th

Kyle B…16-1…$25 ($400) -27th

W Byron…16-1…$25 ($400) -36th

K Harvick…16-1…$20 ($320) -8th

Kurt B…20-1…$15 ($300) -4th

T Reddick…25-1…$14 ($350) -39th

M DiBenedetto…30-1…$35 ($1050) -35th

B Wallace Jr…30-1…$10 ($300) -1st

R Chastain…50-1…$6 ($300) -33rd

Now we get to the ROVAL where it’s very Hendrick Motorsports heavy up top. Chase Elliott (2-1) has won the last two years here and has to enter as the one to beat because of that. That makes him the heavy favorite.

Elliott, has won six of the last 10 road course races in general with the only four that he didn’t win being this past February in Daytona when he led the most laps but was screwed for a caution being displayed for rain in which he was going to cruise to an easy victory. The other was a runner-up finishes in Sonoma and in Watkins Glen and a fourth place result at Indy which was only because of some late race fluky cautions. He had a top two car if not for that.

Who else can beat him on Sunday?

Elliott’s Hendrick Motorsports teammate in Kyle Larson (4-1) should also be a factor. He was runner-up to Elliott in COTA, won in both Sonoma and Watkins Glen and if not for late race contract with Alex Bowman in Road America, he was going to finish in the top three or four that day as well. He was also third in Indy but for the same reasons as Elliott, the late race carnage hurt his strategy for an easy victory.

Elliott and Larson have finished 1-2 four times already this year with three of them being on road courses and if Indy went right, would be four.

Hendrick Motorsports has also won 8 of the last 10 overall road course races in general including four of the last five.

Counting Joe Gibbs Racing, them and HMS have combined to win each of the last 10 road course races and went 1-2-3-4-5-6-7 in Watkins Glen and were 1-2-3-4-5-6 in Indy before the late race cautions.

Throw in Furniture Row Racing (Martin Truex Jr.) who was aligned with JGR, these three teams have won 13 of the last 15 road course races. The only ones they didn’t win was when Ryan Blaney (Team Penske) was victorious in 2018 on the Charlotte ROVAL when Truex was crashed in the final turn on the final lap and AJ Allmendinger at Indy when Denny Hamlin was spun out of the way by Chase Briscoe and that comes after the two HMS cars saw the strategy flipped or else it would be 15 straight.

Martin Truex Jr. (7-1) comes to mind as one of the top JGR drivers. While he’s had just two top five finishes in six road course races this season, he’s typically been the only other driver outside of Elliott to excel on them. He should have won this race in 2018 and was seventh in the last two years.

Denny Hamlin (12-1) is probably the next best that I feel good about in terms of favorites. He’s had four top eights in six tries this year himself in what should be five if the ending at Indy goes differently.

Kyle Busch (11-1) is a hard one to figure out here. In Charlotte, Busch has finished a dismal 32nd, 37h and 30th respectively. On road courses this season, he’s been 10th, fifth, third, fourth and 20th respectively and the only reason he was 20th in Indy was due to getting collected in that big late race crash when the curbing broke. He was in the top five at that point too. So, which is it? Past stats at Charlotte or current stats on the season? I’ll take the current.

These are your top favorites with Christopher Bell being 20-1 (win in Daytona, 2nd in Road America, should have been a top 3 in Watkins Glen) and William Byron at 16-1 (6th the last 2 years, 6th in Watkins Glen, top 7 going in Indy) as the best sleeper options.

If anyone outside of these camps does win, I look to Joey Logano (18-1). He has three top four finishes in six road course starts this season and was runner-up last year. His teammate Ryan Blaney (16-1) was runner-up in Indy, won the inaugural race here and has two top fives and three top 10’s in three ROVAL tries.

With these odds for these drivers, it’s basically saying Elliott and Larson vs. the field. Who do ya got? Here’s who we went with.

Race Odds

2-1…C Elliott (Eric, CJ)

4-1…K Larson (Eric, CJ, Greg)

7-1…M Truex Jr.

11-1…Kyle B

12-1…D Hamlin

16-1…R Blaney (Greg) and W Byron (CJ, Greg)

18-1…J Logano (Eric)

20-1…C Bell (Eric)

22-1…A Bowman (Greg)

25-1…Kurt B

28-1…K Harvick

40-1…C Briscoe, R Chastain (Greg), B Keselowski and T Reddick

60-1…M DiBenedetto and E Jones

125-1…A Almirola and C Buescher

150-1…M McDowell

200-1…A Dillon, C Custer and R Stenhouse Jr.

250-1…D Suarez and D Wallace Jr.

350-1…R Newman

BANK OF AMERICA ROVAL 400: RACE 32 PICKS

 

Eric Smith

C Elliott…2-1…$175 ($350)   

K Larson…4-1…$88 ($352)  

J Logano…18-1…$20 ($360)  

C Bell…20-1…$17 ($340)  

 

RECORD: 18 for 31

TOTAL: -510

 

BANK OF AMERICA ROVAL 400: RACE 32 PICKS

 

Greg DePalma

K Larson…4-1…$150 ($680)  

R Blaney…16-1…$70 ($1,120)

W Byron…16-1…$30 ($480) 

A Bowman…22-1…$20 ($440) 

R Chastain…40-1…$10 ($400)  

 

RECORD: 9 for 31

TOTAL: -769

 

BANK OF AMERICA ROVAL 400: RACE 32 PICKS

 

CJ Radune

C Elliott…2-1…$175 ($350)   

K Larson…4-1…$100 ($400)  

W Byron…16-1…$25 ($400) 

 

RECORD: 15 for 31

TOTAL: -909

 

Weekly Race Points Standings

 

Week 30 Talladega

1 Eric -100/-510

2 Greg +10/-769

3 CJ -100/-909


WEEKLY PICKS ARCHIVES

 

YELLAWOOD 500: RACE 31 PICKS

YELLAWOOD 500 WINNER: BUBBA WALLACE JR.

 

YELLAWOOD 500: RACE 31 PICKS

 

Eric Smith

D Hamlin…7-1…$72 ($504) …7th   

J Logano…10-1…$65 ($650) …3rd

R Blaney…11-1…$60 ($660) …15th  

B Keselowski…14-1…$22 ($308) …2nd  

W Byron…16-1…$20 ($320) …36th/Acc.

K Harvick…16-1…$22 ($352) …8th

A Dillon…25-1…$13 ($325) …11th  

M DiBenedetto…30-1…$11 ($330) …35th/Acc.  

C Buescher…40-1…$8 ($320) …6th

M McDowell…50-1…$7 ($350) …17th  

 

RECORD: 0 for 1

TOTAL: -300

 

YELLAWOOD 500: RACE 31 PICKS

 

CJ Radune

D Hamlin…7-1…$60 ($420) …7th    

J Logano…10-1…$50 ($500) …3rd  

R Blaney…11-1…$50 ($550) …15th   

C Elliott…11-1…$50 ($550) …18th   

B Keselowski…14-1…$30 ($420) …2nd    

W Byron…16-1…$30 ($480) …36th/Acc.  

M DiBenedetto…30-1…$15 ($450)…35th/Acc.  

C Buescher…40-1…$15 ($600) …6th  

 

RECORD: 0 for 1

TOTAL: -300

 

YELLAWOOD 500: RACE 31 PICKS

 

Greg DePalma

D Hamlin…7-1…$50 ($350) …7th      

R Blaney…11-1…$75 ($825) …15th   

C Elliott…11-1…$25 ($275) …18th     

Kyle B…16-1…$25 ($400) …27th  

W Byron…16-1…$25 ($400) …36th/Acc.   

K Harvick…16-1…$20 ($320) …8th  

Kurt B…20-1…$15 ($300) …4th   

T Reddick…25-1…$14 ($350) …39th/Acc.    

M DiBenedetto…30-1…$35 ($1050)…35th/Acc.    

B Wallace Jr…30-1…$10 ($300) …1st   

R Chastain…50-1…$6 ($300) …33rd  

 

RECORD: 1 for 1

TOTAL: +10

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