Prime Sports NASCAR – weekly picks for Watkins Glen

Eric nailed another long shot the last time out with cashing in on Aric Almirola’s 60-1 odds in Loudon. He also hit Joey Logano at Bristol earlier this season when he was at 33-1 too. That puts him back within striking distance of breaking even while CJ (-$684) and Greg (-$1,079) look to rebound this weekend in Watkins Glen.

Chase Elliott was the obvious pick here with him having won each of the last two races at Watkins Glen to go along with two of the last three road course races on the season as well. He’s won six of the last eight road races in general overall.

Martin Truex Jr. at 6-1 is a decent price considering he won this race in 2017 and was runner-up to Elliott in both 2018 and again in 2019. That’s why Eric and CJ went with these two and not Kyle Larson (4-1) despite Larson winning at Sonoma, being runner-up in COTA and had a top five car in Road America before getting run over by his teammate Alex Bowman towards the end of the July 4 race.

The only other driver CJ went in on was Kyle Busch. Rightfully so too. Busch’s last three road course finishes on the season were 10th, 5th and 3rd respectively. Trends say he will win on Sunday if he keeps that improvement up.


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Busch, has four top seven finishes in his last five tries at Watkins Glen including being a two-time winner there.

Eric also went with Denny Hamlin (11-1), Joey Logano (12-1) and Chase Briscoe (50-1). Hamlin, has three top eight’s in four road races this year to go along with three top fours in his last four starts at the Glen. Logano, has three top four finishes in the same races this season while Briscoe has a pair of sixth place finishes in his last three.

Greg went with Truex, Busch, Hamlin and Logano like Eric did but then went with more sleepers after.

The odds of a longershot winner though is really slim to none this week anyhow. Just look at the teams that’s won on road courses lately. They’re all powerhouses.

Hendrick Motorsports has won 7 of the last 8 overall road course races in general. Counting Joe Gibbs Racing, them and HMS have combined to win each of the last 9 road course races.

Throw in Furniture Row Racing (Martin Truex Jr.) who was aligned with JGR, these three teams have won 12 of the last 13 road course races. The only one they didn’t win was when Ryan Blaney (Team Penske) was victorious in 2018 on the Charlotte ROVAL when Truex was crashed in the final turn on the final lap or else it would be 13 straight.

Stewart-Haas Racing is the only other team to have won since 2015 on road courses. Hendrick has won 8 times, JGR has won 4 times, Furniture Row, SHR and Penske each twice themselves. That’s 18 races.

Of the winners in this span, only Elliott (7 wins), Truex Jr. (3 wins) have won multiple times. Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Joey Logano and Tony Stewart are the only other winners. Among them, Stewart has since retired and the others are currently inside of the playoff grid.

The Chip Ganassi Racing duo have to be the sleepers to maybe steal a win if someone outside of Hendrick, JGR or SHR win.

Ross Chastain (40-1) has been at his best somehow on road courses. He was fourth in COTA and scored a pair of seventh place finishes in Sonoma as well as Road America. His teammate Kurt Busch (20-1) has three top six finishes in four races on them this season and has seven straight top 11 results at the Glen.

Alex Bowman (25-1) is another solid play since he drives for HMS and having three top 10’s in four road course starts this season.

So is Christopher Bell (15-1). He won on the Daytona road course and was runner-up in the last road course race at Road America as well as the last time out in Loudon too.

The reason Brad Keselowski (30-1) and Ryan Blaney (25-1) are so long despite their starting position is that they’ve not been all that great lately on road courses either. Keselowski, was 19th,15th and 13th himself in the last three races on them with Blaney being 13th, 10th and 20th respectively too.

Same for Kevin Harvick (30-1). His four road course finishes this season are sixth, 37th, 22nd and 27th respectively.

Race Odds

2-1…C Elliott (Eric, CJ)

4-1…K Larson

6-1…M Truex Jr. (Eric, CJ, Greg)

7-1…Kyle B (CJ)

11-1…D Hamlin (Eric, Greg)

12-1…J Logano (Eric, Greg)

15-1…C Bell (35-1 at last RC) *Greg

20-1…Kurt B and W Byron

25-1…R Blaney (Greg) and A Bowman (Greg)

30-1…K Harvick and B Keselowski (Greg)

40-1…R Chastain (Greg) and T Reddick (Greg)

50-1…C Briscoe (Eric) and M DiBenedetto (both were 100-1 at last RC) *Greg

80-1…M McDowell and D Suarez

100-1…A Almirola, C Buescher and C Custer

150-1…A Dillon and E Jones

200-1…R Preece

250-1…R Newman, R Stenhouse Jr. and D Wallace Jr.

GO BOWLING AT THE GLEN: RACE 23 PICKS

 

Eric Smith

C Elliott…2-1…$60 ($120)

M Truex Jr…6-1…$20 ($120)

D Hamlin…11-1…$9 ($99)

J Logano…12-1…$9 ($108)

C Briscoe…50-1…$2 ($100)

RECORD: 12 for 22

TOTAL: -361

 

GO BOWLING AT THE GLEN: RACE 23 PICKS

 

CJ Radune

C Elliott…2-1…$60 ($120)

M Truex Jr…6-1…$20 ($120)

Kyle B…7-1…$20 ($140)

 

RECORD: 11 for 22

TOTAL: -684

 

GO BOWLING AT THE GLEN: RACE 23 PICKS

Greg DePalma

M Truex Jr…6-1…$15 ($90)

Kyle B…7-1…$13 ($91)

D Hamlin…11-1…$8 ($88)

J Logano…12-1…$15 ($180)

C Bell…15-1…$10 ($150)

R Blaney…25-1…$10 ($250)

A Bowman…25-1…$10 ($250)

B Keselowski…30-1…$10 ($300)

R Chastain…40-1…$5 ($200)

T Reddick…40-1…$2 ($80)

M DiBenedetto…50-1…$2 ($100)

RECORD: 5 for 22

TOTAL: -1079

 

 

Weekly Race Points Standings

 

Week 21 New Hampshire

1 Eric +22/-361

2 CJ -100/-684

3 Greg -100/-1079

 

WEEKLY PICKS ARCHIVES

 

FOXWOODS RESORT CASINO 301: RACE 22 PICKS

FOXWOODS RESORT CASINO 301 WINNER: ARIC ALMIROLA

 

Eric Smith

Kyle B…6-1…$27 ($162) …37th/Acc.

D Hamlin…8-1…$14 ($112) …10th

M Truex Jr…8-1…$20 ($160) …12th

K Harvick…10-1…$13 ($130) …6th

A Bowman…14-1…$7 ($98) …9th

R Blaney…16-1…$7 ($112) …5th  

C Bell…30-1…$6 ($180) …2nd

T Reddick…50-1…$3 ($150) …13th

A Almirola…60-1…$2 ($120) …1st

C Custer…125-1…$1 ($125) …14th

RECORD: 1 for 1

TOTAL: +22

 

FOXWOODS RESORT CASINO 301: RACE 22 PICKS

 

CJ Radune

Kyle B…6-1…$19 ($114) …37th/Acc.

D Hamlin…8-1…$14 ($112) …10th

W Byron…12-1…$19 ($228) …21st

J Logano…12-1…$19 ($228) …4th

A Bowman…14-1…$18 ($252) …9th

R Blaney…16-1…$8 ($128) …5th

M DiBenedetto…50-1…$3 ($150) …11th

 

RECORD: 0 for 1

TOTAL: -100

 

FOXWOODS RESORT CASINO 301: RACE 22 PICKS

Greg DePalma

Kyle B…6-1…$15 ($90) …37th/Acc.

D Hamlin…8-1…$11 ($88) …10th

M Truex Jr…8-1…$33 ($264) …12th

B Keselowski…10-1…$9 ($90) …3rd

R Blaney…16-1…$18 ($288) …5th

Kurt B…25-1…$4 ($100) …16th

C Bell…30-1…$4 ($120) …2nd

M DiBenedetto…50-1…$6 ($300) …11th

RECORD: 0 for 1

TOTAL: -100

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