The odds are in for Sunday’s Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 (3 p.m. ET, NBCSN, PRN) and our experts agreed on several drivers this week. In fact, they all agreed on Kyle Busch (6-1), Denny Hamlin (8-1), Martin Truex Jr. (8-1), Ryan Blaney (16-1) and Christopher Bell (30-1) with them showing that Sunday’s race in Loudon should be Joe Gibbs Racing dominated.
Rightfully so too. Bell, won Trucks and Xfinity Series races in New Hampshire and enters having two straight top 10 finishes on the season and 30-1 odds. Busch has four straight top two’s on the season and seven top three results in his last 10 starts on the Magic Mile. Hamlin, is a top five contender to go along with two straight runner-ups there while Truex Jr. finally got a top five last weekend and has six straight top seven results at New Hampshire.
In doing so, they avoided most of the Hendrick drivers. HMS has won 10 of the 21 races this season including eight of the last 10 including the All-Star race last month in Texas. But, the group cooled off a bit last weekend in Hot Atlanta to go along with not having won a race at New Hampshire since 2012.
That made it too steep to use Kyle Larson (4-1) as a driver who’s not had a top five there since 2017. Granted, he does have three runner-ups in the Granite State, it’s just steep to grab him when you can get the JGR drivers for better odds.
Then for Chase Elliott (9-1), he’s only had one top five and two top 10’s in seven New Hampshire tries. William Byron (12-1) has never had a top 10 in three New Hampshire Cup appearances and is cooling down with three top 10 finishes in his last eight tries compared to 11 in the previous 13.
Eric went with Kevin Harvick (10-1) since Harvick has two wins in his last three tries there to go along with eight top fives in his last 10 New Hampshire starts. Why not for those odds?
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CJ and Greg went with a different 10-1 driver in Brad Keselowski who’s the defending race winner. He’s only had two top five finishes in his last 11 races on the season though so we’ll see if he can get back going. Plus, Penske is struggling a bit right now. Joey Logano (12-1) has just one top five in his last seven including three in the last 12 overall. We all avoided him.
Alex Bowman was too good to pass up though at 14-1. Same for Ryan Blaney at 16-1. Neither have been great at New Hampshire but for those odds mixed with Bowman scoring three top seven finishes over the last four races and seven top 10’s in his last nine coupled with Blaney scoring three top six results in his last four, why not?
Kurt Busch is hot so CJ and Greg will ride that wave. Eric elected against him since Busch has just one top five in his last six starts on the Magic Mile. We all went with Bell.
For the 50-1 drivers, Eric went with the hot hand from Tyler Reddick (7 top 11’s in his last nine) while Greg and CJ went with last year’s sixth place finisher Matt DiBenedetto. The Wood Brothers driver also enters with a pair of top 10’s the last two weeks. He did have eight straight finishes of 18th or worse prior though.
Eric then went with 60-1’s Aric Almirola. While he’s had a bad season so far, Almirola still was fifth in 2013, sixth in 2014, third in 2018 and seventh last year on this track.
The only other long shot was Eric taking Cole Custer. He’s 125-1 and was eighth a year ago.
Eric went heavy on SHR Drivers for good measure since this track has been the place in recent years to get SHR out of a slump. For the odds that they’re getting this weekend, why not bet some for that to happen again.
We did take all but four drivers from 50-1 or lower.
Last week, Eric and Greg hit Kurt Busch with Eric getting $30 richer and Greg a big $160 better. Eric has won the last two weeks and is now -$383 on the season with CJ next best at -$584. Greg sits at -$979 entering Sunday’s race.
Race Odds
4-1…K Larson
6-1…Kyle B
8-1…D Hamlin and M Truex Jr.
9-1…C Elliott
10-1…K Harvick and B Keselowski
12-1…W Byron and J Logano
14-1…A Bowman
16-1…R Blaney
25-1…Kurt B
30-1…C Bell
50-1…M DiBenedetto and T Reddick
60-1…A Almirola and A Dillon
80-1…R Chastain
100-1…C Buescher
125-1…C Briscoe, C Custer and R Stenhouse Jr.
150-1…Newman, D Suarez and D Wallace Jr.
200-1…E Jones
250-1…M McDowell
350-1…R Preece
FOXWOODS RESORTS CASINO 301: RACE 22 PICKS
Eric Smith
Kyle B…6-1…$27 ($162)
D Hamlin…8-1…$14 ($112)
M Truex Jr…8-1…$20 ($160)
K Harvick…10-1…$13 ($130)
A Bowman…14-1…$7 ($98)
R Blaney…16-1…$7 ($112)
C Bell…30-1…$6 ($180)
T Reddick…50-1…$3 ($150)
A Almirola…60-1…$2 ($120)
C Custer…125-1…$1 ($125)
RECORD: 11 for 21
TOTAL: -383
FOXWOODS RESORTS CASINO 301: RACE 22 PICKS
CJ Radune
Kyle B…6-1…$19 ($114)
D Hamlin…8-1…$14 ($112)
W Byron…12-1…$19 ($228)
J Logano…12-1…$19 ($228)
A Bowman…14-1…$18 ($252)
R Blaney…16-1…$8 ($128)
M DiBenedetto…50-1…$3 ($150)
RECORD: 11 for 21
TOTAL: -584
FOXWOODS RESORTS CASINO 301: RACE 22 PICKS
Greg DePalma
Kyle B…6-1…$15 ($90)
D Hamlin…8-1…$11 ($88)
M Truex Jr…8-1…$33 ($264)
B Keselowski…10-1…$9 ($90)
R Blaney…16-1…$18 ($288)
Kurt B…25-1…$4 ($100)
C Bell…30-1…$4 ($120)
M DiBenedetto…50-1…$6 ($300)
RECORD: 5 for 21
TOTAL: -979
Weekly Race Points Standings
Week 20 Atlanta
1 Eric +30/-383
2 CJ -100/-484
3 Greg +160/-1139
Week 19 Road America
1 Eric +50/-413
2 CJ +65/-484
3 Greg -100/-979
Week 18 Pocono R2
1 Eric -100/-463
2 CJ +60/-549
3 Greg +20/-1039
Week 18 Pocono R1
1 Eric -100/-363
2 CJ -100/-609
3 Greg -100/-1059
Week 17 Nashville
1 Eric -100/-263
2 CJ -100/-509
3 Greg -100/-959
Week 16 Sonoma
1 Eric -100/-163
2 CJ -100/-409
3 Greg -100/-859
Week 15 Charlotte
1 Eric +40/-63
2 CJ +33/-309
3 Greg +61/-759
Week 14 Texas Grand Prix
1 Eric +59/-103
2 CJ +86/-342
3 Greg -100/-820
Week 13 Dover
1 Eric -100/-162
2 CJ +26/-428
3 Greg -100/-720
Week 12 Darlington
1 Eric -100/-62
2 CJ +35/-454
3 Greg -100/-620
Week 11 Kansas
1 Eric +20/+38
2 CJ +20/-489
3 Greg +140/-520
Week 10 Talladega
1 Eric +20/+18
2 CJ +20/-509
3 Greg -100/-660
Week 9 Richmond
1 Eric +36/-2
2 CJ -100/-529
3 Greg -100/-560
Week 8 Martinsville
1 Eric +20/-38
2 CJ +32/-429
3 Greg -100/-460
Week 7 Bristol Dirt
1 Eric +290/-58
2 Greg -100/-360
3 CJ -100/-461
Week 6 Atlanta
1 Greg +240/-260
2 Eric -100/-348
3 CJ +19/-361
Week 5 Phoenix
1 Eric +20/-248
2 CJ +20/-380
3 Greg -100/-500
Week 4 Las Vegas
1 Eric +32/-268
2 Greg -100/-400
3 CJ -100/-400
Week 3 Homestead
1 Greg -100/-200
2 CJ -100/-200
3 Eric -100/-200
Week 2 Daytona Road
1 Greg -100/-200
2 CJ -100/-200
3 Eric -100/-200
Week 1 Daytona 500
1 Greg -100
2 CJ -100
3 Eric -100
WEEKLY PICKS ARCHIVES
QUAKER STATE 400: RACE 21 PICKS
QUAKER STATE 400 WINNER: KURT BUSCH
Eric Smith
K Larson…3-1…$38 ($114) …18th
C Elliott…8-1…$13 ($104) …7th
Kyle B…8-1…$13 ($104) …2nd
D Hamlin…10-1…$11 ($110) …13th
W Byron…12-1…$10 ($120) …20th
A Bowman…16-1…$7 ($112) …4th
Kurt B…25-1…$5 ($125) …1st
C Bell…35-1…$3 ($105) …8th
RECORD: 1 for 1
TOTAL: +30
QUAKER STATE 400: RACE 21 PICKS
CJ Radune
K Larson…3-1…$45 ($135) …18th
Kyle B…8-1…$17 ($136) …2nd
D Hamlin…10-1…$15 ($150) …13th
W Byron…12-1…$13 ($156) …20th
A Bowman…16-1…$10 ($160) …4th
RECORD: 0 for 1
TOTAL: -100
QUAKER STATE 400: RACE 21 PICKS
Greg DePalma
C Elliott…8-1…$40 ($320) …7th
R Blaney…11-1…$18 ($198) …5th
W Byron…12-1…$17 ($204) …20th
A Bowman…16-1…$12 ($192) …4th
Kurt B…25-1…$10 ($250) …1st
C Buescher…80-1…$3 ($240) …16th
RECORD: 1 for 1
TOTAL: +160
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