NASCAR is off to a strong start in terms of sleepers in the betting world. We’ve seen a 66-1 driver win the Daytona 500 and a 60-1 driver triumph last Sunday on the Daytona road course. Each were first time winners in the series. Do we see a third straight on Sunday afternoon at the Homestead-Miami Speedway?
The odds are good for it. In fact, this is a great race to bet on in the sense that the favorites all have decent odds in the bettors favor while there’s several long shots that could be legitimate contenders to win Sunday’s Dixie Vodka 400 (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX, MRN).
You can go all the way down to Ross Chastain at +15000. You mean you’re giving me a Ganassi driver for these odds? Chastain, is no slouch and taking over a car that produced three top five finishes in the last five starts for Kyle Larson? He’s also finished third in last year’s Xfinity Series race and was fourth and third respectively the last two Truck Series races there too. I’ll take it.
Then you get Stewart-Haas Racing. Aric Almirola (+5000) was fifth a year ago as well and has two top 10’s in his last three Homestead starts. His teammates Chase Briscoe and Cole Custer are both +8000. Briscoe, was the NXS race last June and was third the year prior. In Trucks, he won the 2017 race too. For Custer, he had three top two finishes in-a-row in NXS competition.
What about the Richard Childress Racing camp?
Tyler Reddick hasn’t finished worse than fourth in five career Homestead starts for +2000. He was fourth last year as a rookie and had two straight wins in NXS competition. His teammate Austin Dillon (+4000) has had a top 15 for six straight years including finishes of 14th to 12th to 11th to 11th again to 8th then to 7th….a top 5 on Sunday?
What about their alliance car with Daniel Suarez (+35000). After all, it’s Pitbull’s hometown race. Suarez, is a LONG shot for a win, so why not sprinkle some money his way?
You also get last weeks winner (Christopher Bell) who also finished eighth in this race as a rookie last year for +2800. Toyota has been the most dominant manufacturer lately in Homestead and he drives a Toyota.
Finally, you’re giving me Ryan Blaney, last year’s third place finisher, at +1600?
Why not pick these guys? I mean, the favorites are the favorites for good reason, but the favorites the last couple of weeks failed to win.
Denny Hamlin led 98 of 200 laps in the Daytona 500 but didn’t win. Chase Elliott led 44 of 70 laps last Sunday but didn’t win either. That’s why you can’t overlook these sleepers are potential race winners at that.
Hamlin, has seven top 10 finishes in his last eight Homestead starts including a win and sweeping both stages a year ago. Larson (+850) is always a great play.
The reason for this openness is Kevin Harvick (+550), Martin Truex Jr. (+700) and Joey Logano (+1000) all struggled a year ago. Harvick, finished 26th. Truex was 12th. Logano was 27th. Their past stats are all great at Homestead, but last year with a similar package wasn’t.
So, go with a few favorites and all longshots on Sunday.