What a wild start its been to the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season. We’ve seen a 66-1 driver win the Daytona 500 and a 60-1 driver triumph last Sunday on the Daytona road course. Each were first time winners in the series. Do we see a third straight on Sunday afternoon at the Homestead-Miami Speedway?
First off, the odds are great for us overall this weekend. The favorites are +500. You get Denny Hamlin, who is a great pick by the way, who swept both stages and took the win last year. He’s also off to a great start in 2021 with two top fives in as many tries.
But, you also have Kevin Harvick (+500) who was only 26th a year ago. Harvick, still has 12 top 10 finishes in his last 13 Homestead starts including 16 of his last 18. Since 2014, he has a top four finish in all of the races there but one. Do you risk throwing money is way with how last year fared?
Same for Joey Logano (+1000). Can he rebound from last year’s 27th place effort? Logano, had five straight top six finishes prior. He was in contention to win the first two races this season so far too but notes that his car is lacking long term pace right now. Homestead, features a ton of long green flag runs, so you may be able to skip him this week in knowing that.
I’m also skeptical on Kyle Busch (+900). He does have six consecutive top six finishes at Homestead including four of which in the top four, but he also has a new crew chief and this could be a race that the two may have some growing pains.
That’s why the odds fall to our favor after with a no brainer at Martin Truex Jr. (+700). He’s scored three top two’s in his last four Homestead tries. Enough said.
Kyle Larson (+800) has been so dominant on this 1.5-mile track in the past. He has three top five finishes in his last five starts there including leading 132 laps in a runner-up effort in 2016, 145 more in a third place run in 2017 and 45 laps in 2018. He’s never finished past third in any stage at Homestead either.
You can get multiple drivers among this bunch at a good price. The thing is, you have even more value on drivers +1000 and better.
I would probably dabble on some of these longer odds drivers though. You can have last year’s third place finisher (Ryan Blaney) for +1600 odds. You also get a guy like Tyler Reddick who’s not finished worse than fourth in five career Homestead starts for +2000. You get last weeks winner (Christopher Bell) who also finished eighth in this race as a rookie last year for +2200. Toyota has been the most dominant manufacturer lately in Homestead and he drives a Toyota.
What about Reddick’s Richard Childress Racing teammate of Austin Dillon. He’s +3000 and has had a top 15 for six straight years including finishes of 14th to 12th to 11th to 11th again to 8th then to 7th….a top 5 on Sunday?
William Byron (+3300) is another good one. HMS had two cars in the top 10 last year with Byron being one of them.
Aric Almirola (+5000) – Was fifth a year ago as well and has two top 10’s in his last three Homestead starts.
Ross Chastain (+12500) – You mean you’re giving me a Ganassi driver for these odds? Chastain, is no slouch and taking over a car that produced three top five finishes in the last five starts for Kyle Larson? I’ll take it.
There’s so many drivers worth looking at this weekend. The hard part is, narrowing it down to whom to bet one. I did that here.
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