Following a weekend which saw a long shot (60-1) win the Daytona 500, the NASCAR world is back in action this weekend on the same Daytona International Speedway. This time though, they’ll take to the 3.61-mile road course instead.
That means the randomness of winners won’t likely occur. The favorites are the favorites for good reason. Two of the three races feature some really heavy favorites which leads to favorable odds if you don’t think either would win.
Still, with a road course, some longer shot winners could certainly occur. Here’s a breakdown of who to bet on for each race this weekend starting with Friday night’s NASCAR Camping World Truck Series race.
BrakeBest Brake Pads 159 (7:30 p.m. ET, FS1, MRN)
The Truck Series race has the best odds of the weekend. We’ve had 24 road course events in the history of the series with 18 different winners on them. This weekend, just three of the drivers have had a past victory on a road course before.
Sheldon Creed is one. He was victorious on the road course at Daytona last year. He led 19 laps from the 14th starting position. That’s why he enters at +450 odds.
Brett Moffitt won at CTMP in 2019 and has the second best odds at +550.
There’s plenty of value behind though. Austin Hill (+900) started fourth and finished fifth a year ago. Matt Crafton (+1400) started 12th but came all the way up to fourth. Kaz Grala (+2000) had a top 10 finish in his Cup debut on this very race track last August. Tyler Ankrum (+2500) came home sixth while Raphael Lessard (+2500) was third.
With this race, you should definitely take multiple drivers here. I’d go with either Creed OR Moffitt as your top pick and sprinkle some money on Lessard, Ankrum, Crafton and Grala too with them.
- Moffitt (+550)
- Lessard (+2500)
- Creed (+450)
- Ankrum (+2500)
- Crafton (+1400)
Super Start Batteries 188 (5 p.m. ET, FS1, MRN)
The Xfinity Series’ race on Saturday is Austin Cindric (+125) and AJ Allmendinger’s (+250) race to lose. They’ve been so dominant on the road courses lately and I don’t see any reason to why this would change this weekend.
Cindric, led 26 laps in a win on this same track last Saturday evening. Last season was the first time in history that the NASCAR Xfinity Series raced on the Daytona Road Course and Cindric made history by winning the event from the pole by a massive 7.108-seconds over second place Brandon Jones. Cindric led 21 of 52 laps in a race that saw seven lead changes and seven cautions for eight laps.
Of Cindric’s nine total wins in the Xfinity Series, four of them were at road courses. He will try to make that five this weekend.
Allmendinger, who also won at the Charlotte ROVAL last season, finished fourth last season at the Daytona Road Course too and will be back behind the wheel of the No. 16 Chevrolet for Kaulig Racing this weekend. Of Allmendinger’s five Xfinity Series victories, four of them were at road courses.
With the odds the way that they are, you can either choose or or both of these two, or the field. Since it’s early in the season, I’d sprinkle some money on both and lay the field. While the profit wouldn’t be as high doing so, you can use this race to start to build the piggybank up for the year as the season goes on.
If you choose the field, don’t look past Brett Moffitt (+4000). He may have long odds, but he starts on the pole though and he’s had a ton of success on road courses in the past in the Truck Series including a win in 2019. He nearly won last weekend’s race on the oval too.
Andy Lally (+2500) is joining Our Motorsports as Moffitt’s teammate this weekend and is chasing a victory on the road course. Lally finished fifth in this race last season.
Miguel Paludo (+4000) will be behind the wheel of the No. 8 Chevrolet for JR Motorsports on Saturday. This will be his third start in the Xfinity Series. The last time he ran a race in the series was 2012 at Road America and Watkins Glen. He’s a road course ringer, so I don’t see him not being a factor in this race.
Noah Gragson (+900) and Justin Haley (+1400) are two others to throw on your list if you don’t choose the Allmendinger/Cindric option.
- 22 Cindric
- 16 Allmendinger
- 03 Lally
- 11 Haley
- 8 Paludo
O’Reilly Auto Parts 253 (3 p.m. ET, FOX, MRN)
Like Saturday’s Xfinity Series race, the Cup race this weekend is top heavy. Chase Elliott and Martin Truex Jr. enter as the heavy favorites. Rightfully so too. They’ve combined to win eight of the last nine points paying Cup races on road courses including Elliott taking four in-a-row. One of those was on this very road course last August. He and Truex combined to take two of the top three finishing positions in that race.
Will they win on Sunday?
My betting picks for the Cup races will always be on COVERS. A link to them is here.
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