The ROVAL on Sunday afternoon was supposed to be a tight playoff race for the final few spots into the Round of 8. With how the previous two races have gone now, the eight spots into the third round are pretty much known.

We know Kurt Busch and Denny Hamlin are in via their wins. Kevin Harvick will join them by virtue of being +68. Chase Elliott (+44) and Brad Keselowski at +41 are sitting really good. So is Martin Truex Jr. at +27.

Alex Bowman and Joey Logano hold onto the final two spots at +22 and +21 respectively. It will take a catastrophe for one of these five not named Busch, Hamlin or Harvick to fall out. It would in turn take a miracle for Kyle Busch (-21), Austin Dillon (-21), Clint Bowyer (-37) or Aric Almirola (-48) to bump their ways in too.

They likely all four need to win.

Busch, Bowyer and Almirola haven’t won all season. In fact, Bowyer and Almirola haven’t won since 2018 either.

With the way that this season is going, it’s likely someone at the top of the playoff standings wins.

Here’s the winless streaks for the 12 playoff drivers in order of how they sit right now – 0, 1, 2, 3, 20, 8, 18, 27, 31, 13, 88, 72.

It’s as if this is playing out like it was supposed to. The final two drivers on the cut line won the final two races before the pandemic and haven’t won since.

Bowman, does have five top 10 finishes in his last seven tries. He had four in the previous 19 races. On the ROVAL, he finished fourth and second respectively.

Elliott and Truex are above him and have won seven of the last eight road course races. Elliott and Bowman went 1-2 in this race last year.

They appear safe.

Logano has eight top 10 finishes in the last 12 races on the season. He hasn’t had a top five in his last nine Road course starts but can just maintain.

Busch, finished 32nd and 37th in his two ROVAL starts. He was also 37th at Daytona back in August too.

Dillon, was 39th and 23rd on the ROVAL.

Almirola was 19th and 14th himself. He hasn’t won in 72 races.

Bowyer, is the best chance of bumping his way in, with two top fives in as many ROVAL starts and six top sixes in his last nine road course starts, but he’s failed to score a top five in his last 22 starts on the season too. He also hasn’t won in his last 88 starts too.

But, in this format from 2014 on, five of the six years have seen someone below the cutline heading into the Round of 12 finale bump their ways back in.

In 2014, Kyle Busch was +26 in second in the standings and got eliminated. He finished 40th at Talladega that day. 

In 2015, Denny Hamlin was +18 heading to Talladega. He too was second in the standings. He got eliminated as he finished 37th. 

In 2016, Martin Truex Jr. was +13 going to Talladega. That was good enough for sixth in the points. He finished 40th and got eliminated. 

In 2017, Kyle Larson was +29 (3rd place) going to Kansas and blew and engine to finish 39th. He was eliminated. 

Finally, last year, Brad Keselowski was +9 in fifth in the standings and got eliminated after a 19th place finish at Kansas. 

The largest margin that someone overcame was Brad Keselowski in 2014 who was 19 points back going to Talladega and won. Chase Elliott last year was the largest one to come back from outside the top eight but to have not won as he was 15 points back and got his way in. Kyle Busch was seven points back in 2017 and six back in 2015 and Denny Hamlin six points back in 2016. 

So, the path is there for someone not to win to get in, but if Busch, Dillon, Bowyer and Almirola are going to do so, they’re going to have to be historic in being the one to come back from outside to in without winning by the largest margin yet. 

So, with how this is looking, we may have a lack of fireworks on Sunday. That’s why I think the top eight now will be the top eight for the third round.