TRACK: Michigan International Speedway (2 mile Oval) DISTANCE: 200 Laps – STAGE 1: 60 Laps, Stage 2: 60 Laps, FINAL STAGE 80 LAPS, 400 Miles)
WEATHER: RAIN 10%, 83 degrees high

Favorites

Kevin Harvick

He has two wins in his last three Michigan starts and three top two finishes in his last four overall starts there.

Denny Hamlin

He was 11th and second in the two Michigan races last year to go along with four top 10 finishes in his last seven starts there.

Kyle Busch

Six straight top 10 finishes including four consecutive top fives there.

Martin Truex Jr. 

He has two straight top five finishes and four top six finishes in his last six Michigan tries.

Chase Elliott

He has seven top 10 finishes in eight Michigan tries including three runner-ups.

Joey Logano

He won the spring race last year and has three top 10 finishes in his last four Michigan starts including 12 in his last 14 there overall.

Brad Keselowski

He’s never won on his homestate track before but he’s been close. Keselowski, has three top six finishes in his last four tries.

Ryan Blaney

Three top 10 finishes in his last four Michigan starts and a ton of speed this year makes me believe Blaney will be among the ones to beat.

Sleepers

Alex Bowman

I’d give him a look here. Bowman, won at Fontana this past spring and was 10th in both Michigan races a year ago.

Kurt Busch

Seven top 12 finishes in his last eight Michigan tries including three top six finishes in his last four overall. He was runner-up last spring.

Firekeepers Casino 400 Race Preview

The next few weeks of this NASCAR schedule is going to be a bizarre blur. We have two doubleheader weekends, starting with this week at Michigan, then two races at Daytona, one on the road course and the other on the oval. These six races will wrap up the regular season.

So, Michigan this weekend is key for a lot of drivers because it’s honestly the final two chances to make your own success. What I mean by that is, Daytona is a wildcard and Dover isn’t a place where you can use strategy and get your way to the front. With the two races at Daytona, they are so unpredictable, anything can happen. Want to control your own destiny? You better do so in Michigan over the course of both days of racing.

We know Stage points are going to be key for several. It’s going to be key for the drivers on the playoff bubble as well as key for guys wanting to win the race. See, since the stage era began in 2017, all six Michigan races were won by a driver getting stage points in the first stage. Four of the six opening stages saw the eventual race winner come home in the top three. Last year, the drivers that won the race ended up giving up Stage points in the second stage and positioning themselves for the win in the end.

With several guys on the playoff bubble needing points, they may elect for stage points instead of the race win which would set up nicely for some favorites to pit at the end of the second stage and be up front for the final push at a win.

That’s why guys like Kevin Harvick (3 top 2 finishes in last 4 Michigan starts), Kyle Busch (6 straight Michigan top 10’s), Martin Truex Jr. (4 top 6 finishes in last 6 Michigan tries), Chase Elliott (3 runner-ups, 7 top 10’s in 8 Michigan tries) and Alex Bowman (Fontana winner) will likely elect for the race win and set themselves up for that.

Plus, Harvick, Denny Hamlin and Brad Keselowski may be the ones to beat anyways. They’ve combined to win 12 of the 20 races run this season including 11 of the 16 during the pandemic.

The key is though, Hendrick Motorsports hasn’t won a race at Michigan since 2014 while Ford has won four straight. Toyota hasn’t won at Michigan since 2015 as that’s their lone MIS win in their last 16 tries.

The Ford guys should be the ones to watch.

Key Stat

The last three Michigan winners have come from the top three starting spots. Furthermore, the last nine have come from the top 12. That bodes well for the qualifying draw for the top of the owners standings who will all start in the top 12. But, what about an invert for Sunday?

They Said It

“I’m excited,” said Michigan native Erik Jones on racing in his homestate this weekend. “Racing at Michigan is always cool and I just love having the opportunity to win at the home track. That place is only an hour-and-a-half from where I grew up so it would be an awesome place to win at. I can’t think of one much cooler, excluding crown jewel races. The double header was actually really smooth at Pocono. We had a tough weekend because we got wrecked on Saturday so we had to go to a backup car for Sunday and start from the back. That made our day a little longer. The double header I thought went really smooth. It was cool to go out there and race back-to-back days. I felt as a driver it was fun. I enjoyed it and I think Michigan will be the same thing. It’s going to be cool just to go out there and run back-to-back days. I’ll have two opportunities to win at my home track. It’s cool to have two opportunities to win on back-to-back days. We saw it in the Xfinity Series with back-to-back winner on both doubleheader races they had so that would be a cool opportunity and cool thing to do in the Cup Series.”