Its been a while since a NASCAR Cup Series rookie has last tasted victory. Maybe that ends on Sunday afternoon at the Homestead-Miami Speedway. The best shot in a long time for a rookie to win on NASCAR’s premiere level is, now.

Tyler Reddick should shine in his No. 8 Chevrolet in Sunday’s Dixie Vodka 400 (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX, MRN). The rookie driver has won the last two NASCAR Xfinity Series races at Homestead and likes to rim ride the outside SAFER barrier. Also, in five career Homestead starts across NXS and Truck Series competition, he’s yet to finish worse than fourth. We could see a first time winner on Sunday.

More: Dixie Vodka 400 Race Preview

More: Dixie Vodka 400 Starting Lineup

He’s shown the speed at times to compete up front, so why not on Sunday?

“Homestead is one we’ve been thinking a lot about,” Reddick said ahead of this weekend’s race. “We’ve been working hard on the car that we are going to take there since, I think, the first Darlington race where we ran really good. There, we ran seventh. We took that car back, got the right side off, put a new one on it and been working on it ever since. Just trying to get all the little details and make that car as good as it can be. So, we’re excited for it.”

But, Reddick also cautions all the hype. The Richard Childress Racing drivers says that we shouldn’t put much stock into his past success in other cars at Homestead either. A Cup car with this competition is a different animal than those races were.

“With how Atlanta went, it’s very important to manage the expectations,” Reddick continued. “We’re racing Cup cars, not Xfinity cars, against Cup drivers. So, it’s very important to remember that and understand that we may feel really good about our chances, but we just have to make the most of our day. With the X factor, if you will, the fence, finding speed along the race and steel bodies that don’t bounce back out like the Xfinity composite body, you just have to be really smart and just make sure that we have a solid car there at the end for the final run.

“One of the biggest things that will be difficult is the way you get around the fence will be a lot different in a Cup car. With more downforce, less horsepower, you have a moment in the middle of the corner in the Xfinity car that you can drive it out of it with power and still run within a tenth or two of what you want to.

“In a Cup car, if you have a moment in the middle of one and two up by the fence that you check up, you’re losing a half of a second maybe even a second. So, you have zero room for error. On top of that, you hit the fence and you’re really going to hinder your day if you have to pit and you go down a lap or two trying to fix the damage and get tires. That’s a track that’s very sensitive – kind of like Martinsville in a way, kind of like Atlanta – so you just have to really pay attention to what the better cars are doing around you. And if you can’t run that line that seems to be the best on-track, then what can we do to help our car get there.

“With the hot conditions, slicker track, I think it’s going to have everybody kind of wondering what the cars are going to do over the course of a run. And obviously everyone is curious how well the fence is going to work in the heat of the day. It’s normally tough in the Xfinity car, just because you’re uncomfortable and the back of the car is dancing around. With that, on top of the steel body, you just tap the wall a little bit, it’s just going to take away the performance of the car.”

Reddick noted that he also took a lot of things that he has learned from other NASCAR series’ on his way to Cup, and tried to apply them to certain areas this season and that it didn’t work.

“I had a lot of things that I took from my Xfinity races at Atlanta, Truck races at Atlanta, that I brought to the Cup side and they didn’t work out for me very good. So, I just have to stay on my toes. We’re working really hard to just bring the best car that we can and, from there, it’s going to be important to keep on top of the balance. The track is going to lay rubber, it’s going to change – just staying on top of those things are important. I think keeping on top of the balance, staying ahead of the curve of the race track as it changes will be very important. The veterans of our sport understand that very well, so we’re just going to have to dig down deep and really make sure that we don’t go too far or go to little on the adjustments we need to make when the track does change.”

One thing going for him is the amount of parity on 1.5-mile tracks. We’ve seen nine different winners in the last 10 races on intermediates overall including a new driver to win all four of them in 2020.

Now, it’s to South Florida. We’re running out of names to keep this going? All that’s left on the big teams are William Byron, Jimmie Johnson, Erik Jones, Ryan Blaney, Clint Bowyer or Aric Almirola. But, we’ve had four straight years of different winners at Homestead too and nine in the last 10 years. The only repeat winner has been Kyle Busch.

Do we see this trend continue?

If so, Reddick is the one to watch.