The 11th race of the NASCAR Cup Series season is scheduled to be run Wednesday night. It will likely mark the second to last points paying race that will run on a weeknight this season. Plus, a weeknight race under the lights at the Martinsville (VA) Speedway is already a big deal.

But, who’s going to win Wednesday’s Blu-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500 (7 p.m. ET, FS1, MRN)? My guess, someone out of the Team Penske or Joe Gibbs Racing camps.

They make the most sense to produce a winner because they took four of the top five finishing spots in the spring race last year and four of the top five in the October race as well. They’ve also won five of the last six races on the Virginia paperclip too.

Brad Keselowski has eight straight top 10 finishes in Martinsville including leading 446 of 500 laps in a dominating day last March. He’s also had a top five in seven of those eight races as well including three straight. Furthermore, he heads to Martinsville on the heels of five straight top 10’s on the season.

Joey Logano won the Fall race in 2018 and has three top eight finishes in his last four Martinsville starts. On the year, he may not have a top five since his win at Phoenix on March 8, but the speed in his No. 22 Ford hasn’t fallen off much.

Ryan Blaney was third in the spring race in 2018 and fourth last year. He’s had a top 10 in four of his last five Martinsville starts including three of those four resulting in a top five finish. He may be the quickest Penske car despite his teammates each having two wins and him not. Blaney, should have started the season off with a top two finish in each of the first three races. A late race caution in Vegas and a tire problem at the end of Fontana derailed that. Now, he has three top four finishes in his last four starts on the season and the only reason it’s not four is a mistake he made after leading 60 laps at Bristol.

That’s a good group for Penske.

JGR has a good group too.

Kyle Busch has just one finish outside of the top five since 2015. That’s 11 starts. In the spring race, he’s finished first, second, second and third respectively since 2016. He’s scored six top four finishes in his last eight starts on the season, half of which being a runner-up.

Denny Hamlin has three straight top five finishes on the Virginia paperclip and four top fives in his last six on the season. That leaves Martin Truex Jr. who won the Fall race last year. He also won both Richmond races too as he’s won the last three Cup races in the Virginia Commonwealth. He has a top 10 finish in nine of his last 11 Martinsville starts including being second, fourth, third, eighth and first respectively in his last five.

This is the group to beat.